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The first Sunday of the Keeneland Fall Meet includes two ‘Win and You’re In’ events for the Breeders’ Cup. The forecast calls for some wet weather, and this look at the card will keep that in mind.
Stonetacular appears to be a mortal lock in the day’s 2nd race. She is the only filly in this second level allowance heat with any speed at all. She can walk along in front and still have plenty left in reserve for the stretch run. She becomes an even safer bet over an off-track as her two wins have come over surfaces labeled muddy and sloppy. Use her as a free space in all the early multi-race exotics.
Race 6 drew an evenly matched field of seven older horses going 7 furlongs on the main track. Storm Advisory and Clear the Mine will likely vie for the early lead. Clear the Mine won twice over the local strip last fall and a return to that form would almost certainly have him in the winner’s circle here. The problem is that he has been beaten a combined 57 lengths in four subsequent starts. Storm Advisory is a stake winner whose best effort would certainly be enough to get the job done here, but that best effort rarely presents itself, and he is yet to hit the board in three prior trips to Lexington. Grand Candy and Rocket Time are difficult to separate, but Grand Candy looks like a better horse on the grass and Rocket Time’s decent record on an off-track leave him as the top selection.
Mia Mischief will be very difficult to deny in the 7th race. She commanded a $300,000 bid from the Heiligbrodts at Fasig-Tipton’s Florida 2yo sale earlier this year – by far and away the most expensive purchase in this group. On top of that, she nearly took a 12 horse field gate-to-wire in her debut, holding on for a stubborn 2nd behind Princess Warrior who backed up that maiden victory with a runner-up finish in Friday’s Grade 1 Alcibiades.
14 go postward in the Grade 3 Bourbon, the 8th race on the card, and any one of them could emerge victorious. Tap Daddy is already a proven commodity over a rain-softened turf course, having broken his maiden over yielding ground at Kentucky Downs. Flameaway makes his first start on the lawn with excellent grass rider Julien Leparoux aboard. He’s one of only two horses in here to have crossed the line first in two prior starts. Admiralty Pier missed all the money by less than a length in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. His sire English Channel absolutely relished rain-softened turf courses. Arawak is certainly eligible to improve in his 2nd attempt on the grass.
The Grade 1 Spinster drew 13 as the featured 9th race. The winner will earn a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, where she will be no threat to the likes of Stellar Wind, Vale Dori, Forever Unbridled and the top 3yos. This is a very weak field for a Grade 1, and it simply speaks to the weakness of the division overall in the Midwest. Romantic Vision merits consideration on the basis of her 2 prior wins and 1 runner-up effort over the Keeneland track. She is also one of the few graded stake winners in the field. If the rain does come, Bar of Gold moves way up. She has 5 wins and one 2nd place finish in 6 lifetime starts over wet tracks. Lockdown probably offers the most upside as an improving 3yo for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. She finished a solid 3rd over a sloppy surface in the Kentucky Oaks and would be a fitting winner for race sponsor Juddmonte Farm.
Best of luck, both at the windows and trying to stay dry. We’ll be back next weekend.