The following Derby picks are from TwinSpires’ Ed DeRosa.
There are two ways to approach betting on this year’s Kentucky Derby: either A) pick one horse you really like and bet the heck out of it, or B) the Matt Jones approach of picking a couple favorites, a couple mid-priced horses, and a longshot and mixing them together.
After several years of giving out losers to Big Blue Nation, I’m going to try Matt Jones’ approach this year and not worry about my “top pick” (it’s Audible) and instead try to hit the trifecta.
Your budget will affect how many horses you use. With $0.50 minimum, the Matt Jones approach costs $30 (5-horse trifecta box). My five horses are Audible and Mendelssohn (the favorites), Hofburg and Enticed (the mid-priced horses), and Lone Sailor (the longshot).
I’m leaving Justify, Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Magnum Moon off my ticket. Of those favorites I like Magnum Moon least, so anyone looking to add another favorite that’d be the one I avoid most.
I’m also against Justify, who I called the Duke of this year’s field. There’s clearly talent here, but it’s overhyped, and I just can’t bet him to reel in the big one at a short price. Good Magic scares me most of the ones I’m leaving off. If I got to add another horse (a 6-horse trifecta box costs $60) then Good Magic would be it.