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Luckett’s Locks: Football Weather

(Photo: © Brett Rojo | USA TODAY Sports)

(Photo: © Brett Rojo | USA TODAY Sports)

We came back down to earth a bit last week as we lost our final three of our final four plays after a scorching 7-0 run. For the year, we sit at 15-10 ATS and we’ll be looking to get back to the winning side this weekend.

There have been a few cancellations throughout the college football calendar and it looks like Nick Saban won’t be in attendance when Kirby Smart finally makes his return to Tuscaloosa. We’ve got some familiar trends we will be riding this week to go with a bunch of action in the ACC.

Let’s get to the best plays on the card.

Auburn (-3) at South Carolina

We’re three games into the Chad Morris era and the Tigers have not looked good on offense. Auburn cannot get the pass and rush attacks rolling at the same time and sophomore quarterback Bo Nix has been average, but he’s been hindered by drops.

Meanwhile, South Carolina is off a romp over Vanderbilt in a game that was much closer than the final score. The Gamecocks aren’t stretching the field with Colorado State transfer Collin Hill at quarterback while sophomore tailback Kevin Harris has been a pleasant surprise.

In this matchup, Auburn can still stop the run even without All-SEC Mike backer K.J. Britt while Hill lives off dink-and-dunk passing. Meanwhile, Auburn is starting to get the ground game rolling with blue-chip true freshman Tank Bigsby while Nix is due for some big plays. Lay the small number the more talented team and Gus Malzahn on the road.

Louisville at Notre Dame (-17)

The Irish are off to a hot start in their first and potentially only season as a full ACC member and no one has come close to them. It helps they’ve played all their games at home, but behind freshmen Chris Tyree and Kyren Williams they have a terrific running game while senior Ian Book can keep them on schedule in the pass game.

It’s been a pretty crummy start to year two at Louisville for Scott Satterfield as the Cards dropped a very winnable marquee spot against Miami followed by two close road losses to both Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech. We haven’t seen much progress on defense while the scouting report may be out on Satterfield’s outside zone and play-action heavy scheme. This program really, really, really misses Mekhi Becton at tackle.

Notre Dame might just have the best offensive line in college football and we’ve seen what has happened when this Louisville front plays against good offensive lines. The Irish could approach 400 rushing yards. After messing around and not covering last week, feels like Notre Dame is in a good spot for a blowout victory while Louisville’s woes continue on the road. Lay the 17.

North Carolina at Florida State (+13)

The table is set for Mack Brown and North Carolina to go on a run and be 8-0 when Notre Dame visits Chapel Hill on Thanksgiving Friday. Behind quarterback Sam Howell, the offense has been outstanding ranking No. 4 in yards per play offense while co-starting tailbacks Michael Carter and Javonte Williams are putting up a combined 8.19 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Florida State is off of their best performance of the season with the Seminoles finding a way to have some success against Notre Dame in South Bend. Mike Norvell appears to have settled on Louisville transfer Jordan Travis behind center and he is providing a dual-threat ability with the arm to beat defenses vertically.

It’s a pretty big number for UNC to lay on the road and we saw them play to their competition on the last trip against Boston College. The Tar Heels will score, but the Seminoles have the ammo to keep pace. It’s just too many points on the road so let’s take the home dog.

Boston College (+12) at Virginia Tech

Jeff Hafley is off to a quick 3-1 start in his first season at BC and he has the Eagles playing some inspired football. Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec is exceeding expectations at quarterback and is consistently making plays for an offense with a very bad run game. Defensively, BC has been salty against the run and that’s a major key for this week.

Virginia Tech got quarterback Hendon Hooker back last week and he made some plays against North Carolina. Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert has been the most explosive running back in college football as this Hokie ground game carries this team’s water. However, their defense is giving up a ton of points.

One of the best trends running right now is Boston College against ACC competition and it has continued under Hafley. The Eagles are on a 21-5-4 ATS run in their conference and we’re riding the streak again. We are a combined 4-0 when playing either of these teams and will look to make it 5-0 tomorrow night.

Best Bet: Ole Miss at Arkansas Under 77

You just knew we couldn’t get out of here without playing an SEC under. Both the Rebels and Hogs have surprised people out of the gates with a couple of upset road victories and hanging with expected division favorites Alabama and Georgia at home. Now they will meet in Fayetteville and there is a lot of familiarity with these staffs.

Under Sam Pittman, both offensive coordinator Kendal Briles and defensive coordinator Barry Odom have worked wonders. Florida grad transfer Feleipe Franks has played like one of the SEC’s best quarterbacks while Odom’s dime defense befuddled Mike Leach’s Air Raid in an upset win. The Hogs are 3-0 ATS and are playing very hard each week.

Under Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss is going full throttle on offense and junior quarterback Matt Corral looks elite. The Rebels spread you out and attack every portion of the field and they certainly look like a top-10 offense through 12 quarters. The defense cannot stop a nose bleed, but the offense and it’s creative play-calling have been elite.

Briles worked for Kiffin at Florida Atlantic while Ole Miss offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby worked for Odom when he was the head coach at Missouri. Due to this, Arkansas should have an advantage over every previous defense the Rebels have faced because there is much more intel for this staff to pull from. You add that in with winds at 20 mph during the game and this one screams under.

Both teams get some points, but this could become who establishes the run best. Both squads could get into the 30s and this under can still come in. We’re sprinting to the window to play this one as the weather severely effects the passing game.

Article written by Adam Luckett

Twitter: @AdamLuckettKSR