So nice that they had to name it twice. Similar to what we did last season, we are back at KSR to get you ready for the weekly tournaments on the PGA Tour. The 2021 season is over a month old now and we’ve seen plenty of action after stops in Hawaii and on the west coast. From Jordan Spieth’s sudden emergence, to Tony Finau’s snakebitten Sundays and Dustin Johnson’s continued dominance, there have been plenty of big takeaways.
Things are about to really pick with The Players occurring in two weeks followed by the Masters a month after. The golf is rolling with the best players in the world beginning the Florida swing. It’s time to start paying attention so we can get upset with Nick Faldo and Paul Azinger for their golf takes on CBS and NBC.
Each week we are going to preview the tournament in addition to giving you some gambling picks. We got on a couple outright winners in the shortened season last year and have already cashed with Patrick Reed at the Farmers Insurance Open. In addition to winners, we will throw out some exotic plays so we can have plenty of action for any of you degenerates or daily fantasy players.
Now let’s go to the Mexico Championship taking place just outside of Tampa. What a sport.
Mexico in Florida
The Mexico Championship is one of the yearly stops on the PGA Tour as it is featured as one of the World Golf Championships. Dustin Johnson has won this event three separate times and Patrick Reed was able to knock off Bryson DeChambeau by one shot to claim the title last season before the coronavirus delay hit.
This is an event that usually has plenty of star power due to it being a WGC tourney, but obviously things are a little different in the world due to COVID-19. So this tournament has been moved to the United States and the Concession Golf Club in Bradenton, Florida will be home to the event.
It will be odd not having this tournament in Mexico, but weather in the 80s all weekend will certainly make up for it and create a fast track.
Concession is a fairly new course that opened back in 2006 and was a Jack Nicklaus design. Back in 2015, Bryson DeChambeau won the national championship here while playing for SMU. So hey, maybe the big golfer can have more success here after missing the cut last weekend out in Southern California.
There will be some tricky greens with not much room for error so second shots from irons and wedges will be very important this weekend. You have to hit the small targets to score birdies and if you don’t it will require a lot of scrambling to try and save par.
This is also a very long course which should directly benefit the bombers from the tee box. There are Par 5s that cover over 600 yards and a few Par 4s over 450 yards. That is a lot of ground to cover and will give long-ball hitters an advantage.
It’s important to remember that this is a no-cut event and every player participating will play all 72 holes throughout the four rounds of golf. Now it is time to go find a winner.
Advanced Stat of the Week
To help eliminate the pool and come up with guys we want to target in on when it comes to a gambling advantage, we’re looking at two specific areas this weekend. It’s length off the tee and strokes gained approach. It’s all about distance and hitting into the green with accuracy this weekend.
Don’t hate it, but Bryson DeChambeau leads the tour in length off the tee and is 15th is strokes gained approach. This course is tailor-made for his playing style and he is an automatic play. Sitting at 20/1 he has some winning odds with value for the top-10 player in the world.
Dustin Johnson ranks in the top-five in both metrics so of course he should be near the top of your board. However, at +550 to win the tournament, there is not much value.
Youngster Will Zalatoris ranks in the top-20 in driving distance and top-10 is strokes gained approach. He has three top-20 finishes in his last four starts and is playing really good golf. The Wake Forest product and 24-year-old is going off at 50/1 to win the tournament currently. He’s worth a roll of the dice.
? @WillZalatoris steps up at the 16th.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 6, 2021
I don’t care if you hate it, I’m going to go ahead and play Bryson DeChambeau to win this puppy at +200. The course was made for him and he already has familiarity by winning a national championship here just a few years ago. Lock him in.
For your daily fantasy players, it’s time to pick five guys. We’re going to plug in DeChambeau and take Dustin Johnson. I think both finish in the top-5 and therefore it is worthy spending a good chunk of your salary cap on the duo. Now it’s time to find some other guys who will compete for a top-25 finish.
Plug in Will Zalatoris for the reasons above. He’s only worth 10 percent of the salary cap at Yahoo. The same value goes for Bubba Watson who ranks in the top-25 in both key metrics. Matthew Wolff is sitting at $36 of value in a $200 pool and he ranks sixth in driving distance while sitting in the top-30 off the tee. You have to add him despite zero top-30 finishes yet this season. To round it out, Ryan Palmer has three top-10 finishes in his last five starts and is top-40 in both key stats.
That should easily get you under your salary cap and is a winning lineup. Now to our exotic plays.
I said Dustin Johnson is going to finish in the top-5 and it’s time to put up or shut up. Take it to the window at +140. Matthew Wolff is due for some good golf and at +250 to finish in the top-20 it’s worth a play.
With the shortened field, I did not love any of the matchup selections. So feel free to make your own picks there, friends. We will visit those again next week when the Tour heads to Bay Hill in the Orlando suburbs for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
We’re thinking about you, Big Cat.