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KSR Golf: Wells Fargo Championship

Max Homa - PGA Tour
(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Max Homa - PGA Tour

(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Well, things did not go well for us last week at the Valspar Championship. KSR Golf recorded a donut when it came to our selections. However, we have moved on after LSU product Sam Burns picked up his first career PGA Tour win. With the PGA Championship just two weeks away, things are starting to heat up on the pro circuit.

This weekend, the PGA Tour heads to Charlotte, N.C., for the Wells Fargo Championship. With the second major of the year taking place in South Carolina, plenty of players will be using this tournament out at Quail Hollow Club as a final tune-up.

Course layout

The Par 71 course covers over 7,500 yards and has some monster Par 4s. Most of these holes go over 450 yards while some reach the 500-yard threshold. Players better get off the tee this weekend to give themselves a chance.

The greens at Quail Hollow tend to be pretty hard and fast. However, the bombing aspect is the thing we all need to pay attention to this weekend. With some of the best players in the world — according to the World Golf Rankings — participating, there will be plenty of bombers out and about this weekend.

Over 150 players are playing this weekend with those in the top-65 plus ties making it to the weekend. As usual, PGA Tour Live and the Golf Channel will have us covered early until Jim Nantz and the crew take over the coverage on CBS for the weekend.

Advanced Stat of the Week

Strokes gained off the tee is a huge metric this weekend, and that matters at Quail Hollow much more than other stops on the tour. Due to all of the very length Par 4s, players must be able to get the distance to give themselves decent approach looks into the greens. If you can’t drive it, scoring will be extremely difficult.

Bryson DeChambeau leads all players in this metric — by a pretty wide margin — and that will give him a major advantage this weekend. This is a tournament that is tailor-made to how he has built his game and the odds represent that with the 27-year-old sitting at 15/1 over at Draft Kings. The Scientist deserves some consideration.

Rory McIlroy has missed three cuts in his last six tournaments, but the Northern Ireland native still is one of the best in the world in hitting it off the tee. McIlroy does have a couple of top-10 finishes under his belt this season and is more than due for another victory. Sitting at 19/1 to win, he is worth some consideration. He has played well at this course in the past.

Viktor Hovland continues to play some really good golf and is off of a T-3 finish at the Valspar Championship. The young phenom has four top-five finishes since the calendar turned to 2021 and is listed at 20/1 this weekend. Ranking No. 5 in strokes gained off the tee, don’t sleep on Hovland.

Luckett’s Locks

DeChambeau isn’t the favorite, but the beefy golfer is lapping everyone else when it comes to efficiency off of the tee. This course was made for him. He already has one win under his belt for this season to go along with a couple more top-10 finishes. At 15/1, DeChambeau has solid value and he can lean heavily on his driver to pick up his ninth PGA Tour victory.

Sungjae Im has been consistently making cuts and sits at No. 6 overall in strokes gained off the tee. The 23-year-old is in the top-20 of the world rankings and has the skillset to succeed this weekend. A top-five finish at +750 is a very good pick to jump up.

Joaquin Niemann finds himself at +335 to finish in the top-10. The 22-year-old from Chile sits at No. 30 in the World Golf Rankings with no missed cuts and a couple of top-10 finishes recorded this season. The young man can bomb the ball off the tee and should be in contention.

Webb Simpson sits at No. 9 in the world but is just No. 56 in strokes gained off the tee. The veteran struggled at RBC Heritage before catching a hot streak on Friday and Saturday. We’re betting that streak does not come this weekend. At +325 to miss the cut, this is a long shot that has a great chance to cash.

Article written by Adam Luckett

Twitter: @AdamLuckettKSR

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