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BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: UK Actually Winning Most Games They Are Supposed to Win

One complaint you hear a lot from UK fans is about Kentucky blowing some games during the Mark Stoops era.  And while true that UK has let some games slip through their fingers over the past 5 years, those games were only considered disappointments because UK was close in them, not because UK was expected to win before the game.  In fact, UK has lost just 3 games in the 5 years under Stoops that they were favored to win: 2017 Ole Miss, 2016 Southern Miss, and 2013 Western Kentucky.  They haven’t been favored against Florida in any season.  They haven’t been favored against Louisville in any season.  In fact, they have only been favored in 22 of 62 games under Stoops.  But how they have done in those 22 games has been very impressive.

Look how their overall record as a favorite has been in the past 5 seasons compared to other SEC teams:

(90.0%) Alabama: 63-7
(86.4%) Mississippi St: 32-5
(86.3%) Kentucky: 19-3
(84.2%) Vanderbilt: 16-3
(83.3%) Texas A&M: 35-7
(81.8%) Auburn: 36-8
(80.7%) LSU: 42-10
(79.4%) Tennessee: 31-8
(78.9%) Georgia: 45-12
(78.3%) Florida: 29-8
(76.9%) Arkansas: 20-6
(75.0%) South Carolina: 24-8
(72.5%) Missouri: 29-11
(69.0%) Ole Miss: 29-13

What about in SEC games only, as many of the games above are against the cupcake non-conference opponents.  Well, Kentucky has been favored in 7 of 40 SEC games under Stoops.  But again, despite the smaller sample size, UK has excelled compared against the other SEC teams:

(90.6%) Alabama: 39-4
(85.7%) Kentucky: 6-1
(80.0%) Mississippi St: 12-3
(79.3%) LSU: 23-6
(75.0%) Florida: 18-6
(74.2%) Georgia: 26-9
(73.9%) Auburn: 17-6
(72.2%) Missouri: 13-5
(71.4%) Texas A&M: 15-6
(57.8%) Tennessee: 11-8
(50.0%) Vanderbilt: 2-2
(50.0%) Ole Miss: 11-11
(45.4%) South Carolina: 5-6
(44.4%) Arkansas: 4-5

Let’s take a minute to laugh at Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Arkansas, who have all lost at least half of their SEC games they were favored in over the last 5 years.  Looking at the schedule now, UK will probably be favored in 5 or 6 games this season, including 2 or 3 SEC games.  If the trend continues, you can almost surely count all of those games as wins.  A must in a lower tier program.  Now can UK pull off more surprises and make this a special season.

Article written by Bryan the Intern

7 Comments for BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: UK Actually Winning Most Games They Are Supposed to Win

  1. RackEmWillie
    10:53 am August 24, 2018 Permalink

    I’m not really sure what this article is supposed to even be about. Because all I learned is that UK has been a favorite in 22 games in 5 years. That’s far below half of their games.

    I’d be more interested to see what UK’s record is when the point spread was 7 or less.

  2. ClutchCargo
    11:04 am August 24, 2018 Permalink

    Besides the fact that the number of games in which we are favored is low, the teams that are the underdogs – off the top of my head – tend to be the ones who are scheduled for the “easy” wins. It makes sense that the good teams will sometimes be favored over other good teams, who have a decent shot of pulling the upset.

  3. Bullitt County UK fan
    11:17 am August 24, 2018 Permalink

    Name and history also matter when considering betting lines, especially in matchups like UK-UF. Kentucky was a better football team than Florida last year, and played at home prime time. Vegas obviously didn’t want any part of Florida plus points regardless. That was a game Kentucky “should have” won. Betting lines don’t tell the whole story

  4. CombatMedic_98
    11:49 am August 24, 2018 Permalink

    No one cares about stats or spreads…we need better and bigger players on this team to win! PERIOD. We are there now. Let’s see what happens!!!

  5. kjd
    12:19 pm August 24, 2018 Permalink

    We should have beat Florida last year. It’s doesn’t matter who was favored. Don’t tell me it’s ok we lost because we were the underdog. That’s total BS.

  6. kybigblue
    1:15 pm August 24, 2018 Permalink

    So in the other 40 games of course UK was 7-33 with probably the biggest win against UL. UK has more talent this year so hopefully a better record will get us in a better bowl. Over 60% of Div. 1 teams go bowling so it would be great to do better than 7-5.

  7. Greatcatfan
    6:24 pm August 24, 2018 Permalink

    The more telling story would be # of games UK was favored in against non power 5 schools and lost due to coaching. Or how down the conference teams had to be before they’d actually pick us to win. Heck we haven’t won as many total games as some teams have won in conference. And just a lesson in sports trying to say Stoops is a good coach because he won at the a better rate then Auburn is pure stupidity. Imagine 2 teams playing bball if one team gets the ball down the court 22 times and scores 86% they’d have 38 points, now if the other team got it 44 times at 82% they’d have 72 points but according to you because it’s Stoops the 38 points somehow wins.