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BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: Has UK Worn Out Opponents Under Stoops?

Garry Jones | AP
"I'm coming for you Nicky!" (Garry Jones / AP)

Mark Stoops being a defensive guy, I am sure he would say that he wants UK to punish opponents.  He wants to wear the other team down.  And while the scoreboard is the ultimate indicator of that, there is also another stat you can look at to see just how difficult it is to play a team.  I went through the schedules of the first 2 years and charted how each opponent did in the week following playing UK.  Teams that had a bye week were not counted.  Admittedly, some of this is schedule-based but a lot of it is not.

We want teams to have to lick their wounds after playing UK.  And if teams are not able to recover it a good indicator of that.  You will see improvement from year 1 to year 2 for Mark Stoops but not nearly the record I think we’d like to see.  I expect to see an even better showing in this statistic this year:

UT-Martin: Lost at Central Arkansas 26-24
Ohio: Lost at Marshall 44-14
Florida: Lost at Alabama 42-21
Vanderbilt: Lost at Georgia 44-17
South Carolina: Won vs Furman 41-10
LSU: Won vs. Ole Miss 10-7
Mississippi St: Won vs Arkansas 17-10
Missouri: Won at Texas A&M 34-27
Georgia: Won vs. Auburn 34-7
Tennessee: Lost vs. Missouri 29-21
Louisville: END OF SEASON

*Opponents were 5-5 in the week following UK game and 3-7 against the spread.

Western Kentucky: Lost at Tennessee 52-20
Miami (OH): BYE WEEK
Louisville: Won vs. FIU 72-0
Florida: Won vs. Arkansas 30-10
South Carolina: Won at Arkansas 52-7
Alabama: Won vs. Arkansas 52-0
Mississippi St: Lost at South Carolina 34-16
Alabama St: Lost vs. Southern 31-28
Missouri: BYE WEEK
Vanderbilt: Won at Tennessee 14-10
Georgia: Won at Georgia Tech 41-34
Tennessee: END OF SEASON

*Opponents were 6-3 in the week following UK game and 5-4 against the spread.

Article written by Bryan the Intern

23 Comments for BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: Has UK Worn Out Opponents Under Stoops?

  1. ClutchCargo
    9:10 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    Interesting, but this seems like only a small part of the big picture needed to understand what this means. There is no comparison to other teams’ results, etc. And I think scheduling has more impact than you are giving it credit for, especially the early season nonconference games.

  2. android guy
    9:27 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    If anything, this is only a reflection of the mediocrity of the SEC East the last few years. I’m excited about this season, but we don’t need to try to create praise where none is justified.

  3. Broski
    9:34 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    This is the kind of garbage I’ve come to expect from BTI

    • Broski
      10:48 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

      But I cannot even add a period to the end of my sentences

    • What?
      12:16 pm July 27, 2015 Permalink

      What does the lack of putting a period at the end of a singular statement in the comments section have to do with the terrible excuse of an article written above?

  4. fatbrat
    9:36 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    I don’t see that your theory is supported in the article.

  5. huck
    9:49 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    I think a more accurate measure would be to count how many buzzards fly over the stadium, say for the next three days. The more blood spilled, the more buzzards will fly over. It doesn’t matter whose blood it is because it takes energy to spill blood – therefore more worn out.

    • inside info2
      10:44 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

      Sadly, your method of measuring the proposed thesis is just about as accurate as BTI’s. But funnier.

  6. Angelo
    10:04 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    Glad I did not pay to read this post. The funny comments make it worth my time.

    • Angelo
      10:47 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

      However, I couldn’t do much better, and bring nothing to the conversation.

  7. asdf
    10:26 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    This is ridiculous. Since the PURPOSE of a betting line is to attempt to adjust the spread to make the bet more of a 50/50 gamble, it should automatically come out close to 0.500 anytime you look at a significant cross section of teams. If you look at ANY group of teams in a given week, they are going to average about 0.500 against the spread by design!

  8. BTI 2.0
    10:34 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    A better article would be something along the lines of ‘half time adjustment + wearing opponents down’ … first half +/- vs second half +/- … with of course excluding the blowouts involving second and third team reps, but instead how we ‘wore down’ opponents throughout the course of a 1-3 possession game.

  9. inside info2
    10:43 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    Once again, I would love to know the dirt BTI has on Matt and Drew for them to continue to allow him to write on this site. This article was pointless. There are so many variables that go into games and way too few data points to collect meaningful statistics.

    I am sure Matt thinks it is cute to allow BTI to continue to post just for the comedic effect, but it really does compromise the integrity of the site.

    • inside info2
      10:49 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

      I am gonna start my own blog. It will be WAY more successful than this crap site.

    • inside info2
      11:02 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

      That was INGENIOUS the way you used my username to post something directly underneath my comment to attempt to get a dig in at me. Very original.

      Btw, I didn’t say anything about the site being bad, just one of the writers on it. And if you look at the comments, I think that opinion is in the majority.

    • theWilkman
      11:09 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

      That’s the whole point, though. BTI is here to generate discussion, even if it’s mostly how terrible his posts are. If you go by number of comments (and I would venture to guess number of clicks correlates strongly), his posts are on average the most successful of all the writers.

    • inside info2
      11:42 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

      If I was running the site, I would ask myself, “do consumers count reading BTI’s posts as a ‘negative experience’?” My guess is yes they do. You want the fewest amounts of negative experiences possible for anything you own, whether it is a restaurant, retail store, or website. Even on an unconscious level, a “love to hate it” is a negative experience.

    • inside info2
      12:59 pm July 27, 2015 Permalink

      Thankfully, I don’t run this site…

  10. Paducahfan
    11:15 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    More importantly, how do WE do the next week? Who’s more worn out – us or them?

  11. Hammer time
    11:35 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    I think we wore Georgia down last year. Last I heard, they are still running!

  12. bleedblueSC
    11:50 am July 27, 2015 Permalink

    First time poster here……this is the worst article I have ever read on this blog, which I read everyday and enjoy. Matt please delete this for the sake of readers and the trolls.

  13. Good Idea, Terrible Execution
    12:02 pm July 27, 2015 Permalink

    It is a great idea to try and determine statistically if UK wore down opponents. Sadly, the way in which BTI tries to quantify this effect is completely useless. You know nothing, BTI.

    Here is what you need to do. Compare each opponent’s median yards per play in the first, second, and third quarters with their median yards per play in the 4th quarter. (Median ypp is a much better metric than average because it isn’t as skewed by outliers as average is.) This will yield a much more accurate indication of whether UK wore opponents down or not.

    • Mathlete
      12:40 pm July 27, 2015 Permalink

      Great idea overall, but to do that BTI would have to put in more than 15 minutes worth of “research” into an article. Not happening!