Alex Poythress has been at Kentucky for almost 4 years now and certainly some of his performances have faded away from my memory, but his play against Alabama on Saturday was maybe the best I have seen him play at UK. It’s only the 8th time in 96 career games he has scored more than 20 points. But Alex has never been a prolific scorer since he came to Kentucky, so does his scoring increase actually show a difference in the W-L record for UK. Below are the records for UK in the past 3+ years in games where Alex has played and what Poythress has scored in each game:
0-9 points: 45-22 (67.1 win%)
10-19 points: 17-4 (80.9 win%)
20+ points: 7-1 (87.5 win%)
Now, the winning percentage in games where Alex has scored fewer than 10 points isn’t terrible. It’s quite good. It basically equates to a 20-10 record. But look at what happens when Alex’s scoring has increased. UK’s win percentage increases by leaps and bounds. You can argue that obviously UK’s chances go up when a guy scores more points, but that considerable of a jump must be pointed out. I’m not sure UK won more or less when Kyle Wiltjer scored more or WCS scored more. And certainly not as much as we above.
The fact is that UK doesn’t NEED Poythress to be a 20 ppg scorer. If Alex averages 10-12 points a game this year, that should be fine, assuming he is also rebounding and giving them some kind of low post threat. But when Alex has those big games of over 20 points, watch out. UK is almost a lock. Here is to hoping he can have those performances come March and April.