Many labeled yesterday’s contest as the toughest remaining game on Kentucky’s schedule. Looking forward, it’s easy to see why. According to Sagarin ratings, Kentucky will be favored to win the rest of its games by at least 10 points. Here are the five lowest projected spreads:
1.) March 3rd at Georgia -10.5
2.) January 24th at South Carolina -10.7
3.) February 7th at Florida -11.2
4.) February 10th at LSU -12.0
5.) January 10th at Texas AM -13.5
The scary part: Sagarin projected the spread for yesterday’s game to be two points (well below the closing line) – so the computer may actually under-value UK. These facts seem to support the notion of Kentucky going undefeated pretty handily. However, keep in mind that a 10 point spread still means that the underdog is expected to win 10-15% of the time. While each opponent will have a low chance of beating Kentucky, the product of these probabilities still makes an undefeated season unlikely. Still, the Cats have a better chance than any team in recent memory – so let’s keep hoping.