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According to Sagarin, UK will be favored to win the rest of its games by double digits

 

(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Many labeled yesterday’s contest as the toughest remaining game on Kentucky’s schedule. Looking forward, it’s easy to see why. According to Sagarin ratings, Kentucky will be favored to win the rest of its games by at least 10 points. Here are the five lowest projected spreads:

1.) March 3rd at Georgia -10.5
2.) January 24th at South Carolina -10.7
3.) February 7th at Florida -11.2
4.) February 10th at LSU -12.0
5.) January 10th at Texas AM -13.5

The scary part: Sagarin projected the spread for yesterday’s game to be two points (well below the closing line) – so the computer may actually under-value UK. These facts seem to support the notion of Kentucky going undefeated pretty handily. However, keep in mind that a 10 point spread still means that the underdog is expected to win 10-15% of the time. While each opponent will have a low chance of beating Kentucky, the product of these probabilities still makes an undefeated season unlikely. Still, the Cats have a better chance than any team in recent memory – so let’s keep hoping.

Article written by Caleb Epley

Vanderbilt student, Kentucky fan. Skilled at using big words and telling bad jokes. Twitter: @CalebEpleyKSR

19 Comments for According to Sagarin, UK will be favored to win the rest of its games by double digits



  1. Dusten
    12:43 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

    I like your writing, Caleb. You sound very intelligent.



  2. Time Expired
    12:54 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

    Where is Cats Paws I am sure he would counter what Sagarin says saying the Cats should have lost yesterday with all those hard fouls knocking his Cards to the floor……[email protected]



    • cats paw
      1:12 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      Time Expired December 26, 2014 at 9:36 pm | Permalink
      Like It (0)
      Cats 84-58
      *****how stupid do you look***** lmao



    • Time Expired
      2:11 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      Moron a lot of EXPERTS predicted that same spread and would have been not for the refs swallowing their whistles. Now who is the fool?



    • cats paw
      3:25 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      Please take the time to link one of these experts you speak of!!! I thought not….I own you, TOOL!



    • cats paw
      3:45 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      Oh you were right! I found those “experts”… Katna, Big Blue Boom, Big Board and you! Funny how those same experts predicted us to be playing in the SEC football championship!! I see a pattern here….



    • UK Big Board Update
      4:12 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      Where in the hell did I make a prediction on the score? Oh that’s right, I didn’t. I don’t remember predicting an SEC Championship game, either.

      I see a pattern here….



    • UK Big Board Update
      4:20 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      Dave Baker (WKYT) says Kentucky 85, Louisville 65.

      Thomas Beisner (KSTV) says Kentucky 72, Louisville 50

      Mark Coomes (Insider Louisville) says Kentucky 63, Louisville 49

      Jeff Drummond (All Wildcats) says Kentucky 72, Louisville 53

      Keith Farmer (WLEX) says Kentucky 65, Louisville 49

      Brian Rickerd (Frankfort State Journal) says Kentucky 72, Louisville 55



    • BigBlueBoom
      12:54 pm December 29, 2014 Permalink

      This is old so I guess no one will see it. But I’ll still state it…I said Cats by 50 and that was a freaking joke. If you took that seriously, you are a complete moron, cats paw. I said it bc you all were bickering about the final score so I was just making fun of you all. That’s the only prediction I made, and I was kidding, genius.



  3. cats paw
    1:08 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

    Let’s put this in perspective. Anyone would be crazy to bet against Ky in any individual game. In totality, one would be just as crazy to bet UK will not lose a game. It just takes one off the wall game by one individual (Dwayne Wade, Miles Simon, etc) to upset a vastly superior team. Once the 40-0 label is put on a team, anything less is considered a failure. This team could lose 3 games this year and still rank as my favorite team ever!



    • Time Expired
      2:09 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      The fool finally makes his appearance and talks his BS



  4. chris47601
    1:18 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

    I’ve been looking at the Sagarin numbers fr a couple of weeks (just before UCLE), and the Predictor column (the one Sagarin says is most reliable indicator of point spread) has placed UK as a 7-8 point favorite on the road against UL….CONSISTENTLY, including right now – 103.21-96.31.

    To say that it ever had UK as a 2 point favorite is plain wrong.



    • Caleb Epley
      2:22 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      I think you’re looking at the predictor rating. I use the overall rating, which is a synthesis of the predictor ratings and the two other models he uses, as the official “Sagarin spread”. It usually predicts the opening line within a point or two, assuming there are no external factors like injuries, etc.



    • chris47601
      2:41 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      Predictor column (the one Sagarin says is most reliable indicator of point spread)



  5. chris47601
    1:19 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

    FYI – somewhere on this site, I posted that the Sagarin spread was 8. YOU go find it.



  6. chris47601
    1:22 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

    And UK is like a 17 point facorite according to Sagarin at Georgia. Are you sure you’re a Vandy guy Epley? Wow.



  7. Time Expired
    2:15 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

    ATTENTION ALL ON HERE…….Cats Paw is a Tardnal Troll do not believe anything he says as all he does is FLOP ( lies ) like his beloved team and Pitino 15 seconds.



  8. Rise
    2:55 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

    Why does everyone hate cats paw? Most of the time he is just being objective. I for one thought our fan base was ridiculous thinking we were going to win by double digits. I guess I better watch what I say. I might be labeled a UL fan.



    • Katya
      6:04 pm December 28, 2014 Permalink

      Just because he IS a UL fan, any subjective UK fan wouldn’t be as obvious a troll or as obviously dumb.