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What Stats Say The Football Team’s Final Record Will Be

Andy Lyons | Getty Images

Andy Lyons | Getty Images

Andy Lyons | Getty Images

In the 21st century of covering sports, our world is dominated by former jocks giving unsubstantiated predictions.  The handful that know what they’re talking about study the game relentlessly.  The newest tool is an advanced statistical category – the efficiency rating.

Advanced metrics and analytics paint a clearer picture for the common person, IF you know what the hell they’re talking about.  I’ve read dozens of academic scholarly articles for college classes, had above a 3.0 GPA, and still have no idea what the hell they mean.  It’s a good thing a know a guy.

Jon Schuette, a former KSR contributor, is the biggest stats nerd I know.  He crunches numbers for fun.  Today, he did the BBN a favor by combining three different efficiency ratings – ESPN’s Football Power Index, The (Ken) Massey Ratings, and Bill Connelly of SB Nation’s rating – to determine the probability of UK’s final record.

@BigJonShoes

@BigJonShoes

 

There’s only a 7.6% chance the Cats do NOT make a bowl.  Even Ryan Lemond can understand that stat.  There’s a greater chance the Cats win 8 or 9 than do not make the postseason.  Entering the year, you’d be called an idiot if you made a statement like that (I know because that person was often me).

If the way the Cats played on Saturday didn’t make you confident, these numbers should do the trick.

Article written by Nick Roush

"Look upon the doughnut, and not upon the hole." @RoushKSR

7 Comments for What Stats Say The Football Team’s Final Record Will Be



  1. Tampa satchel
    8:45 am October 2, 2015 Permalink

    Looks like a standrad deviation graph.



  2. Big Tony
    9:35 am October 2, 2015 Permalink

    Call me an idiot but I predicted in early August the Cats would go 8-4,9-3 and maybe a possible 10-2. Actually the Georgia game should be the only game where the Cats are not favored. CALL ME STUPID BUT NEXT SRASON THE HAD BETTER WATCH OUT FOR THE KENTUCKY DOMINATION



  3. Big Tony
    9:38 am October 2, 2015 Permalink

    Meant the East Division should watch out for the Cats domination



    • novalsi
      10:35 am October 2, 2015 Permalink

      It’s okay, you got a little worked up. Happens to the best of us when it comes to Kentucky winning football games!



  4. loudsaltydetective
    4:11 pm October 2, 2015 Permalink

    What am I missing here? How can there be a zero percent chance that we go 3-9? It’s certainly highly unlikely, but it IS possible – at least as possible as going 11-1, right?



    • J-Streezy
      8:05 am October 3, 2015 Permalink

      We have EKU and Charlotte left on our schedule. There is actually a 0% chance we lose both of those games. I’m actually surprised it says we have a 0.4% we could lose to one of them.



    • CatsFanFrankfort
      10:49 am October 3, 2015 Permalink

      I mean, obviously we COULD lose to everyone, J-Streezy. I don’t think its likely at all. But still a chance. I’m guessing that chance rounds down to 0% though. Its probably a percentage of 1%.