In the 21st century of covering sports, our world is dominated by former jocks giving unsubstantiated predictions. The handful that know what they’re talking about study the game relentlessly. The newest tool is an advanced statistical category – the efficiency rating.
Advanced metrics and analytics paint a clearer picture for the common person, IF you know what the hell they’re talking about. I’ve read dozens of academic scholarly articles for college classes, had above a 3.0 GPA, and still have no idea what the hell they mean. It’s a good thing a know a guy.
Jon Schuette, a former KSR contributor, is the biggest stats nerd I know. He crunches numbers for fun. Today, he did the BBN a favor by combining three different efficiency ratings – ESPN’s Football Power Index, The (Ken) Massey Ratings, and Bill Connelly of SB Nation’s rating – to determine the probability of UK’s final record.
There’s only a 7.6% chance the Cats do NOT make a bowl. Even Ryan Lemond can understand that stat. There’s a greater chance the Cats win 8 or 9 than do not make the postseason. Entering the year, you’d be called an idiot if you made a statement like that (I know because that person was often me).
If the way the Cats played on Saturday didn’t make you confident, these numbers should do the trick.