Today in “Huh?”: Missouri now up to a 6.5-point favorite
I don’t know about you guys, but I feel pretty confident about tomorrow’s game. Combine the early kickoff with Missouri’s weak defense and Kentucky’s soaring confidence and I think the Cats have a very good chance of bringing home their fifth win. Apparently Vegas does not agree. According to the odds at Westgate, Missouri is now a 6.5-point favorite, the latest uptick in a perplexing spread.
On Monday, Missouri opened as a 3.5-point favorite, so, when you take away the 3-point home field advantage boost, means they were barely favored over the Cats. That seems pretty reasonable to me; however, over the past four days, during which news broke that two of the Tigers’ star defensive players are out for the season, the spread has moved three more points in Mizzou’s favor:
May I remind you that Missouri is 2-5 with wins over Eastern Michigan and an 0-7 Delaware State team? And they just lost to Middle Tennessee State?
Normally, Vegas is spot on with this stuff, so what am I missing?
23 Comments for Today in “Huh?”: Missouri now up to a 6.5-point favorite
I guess they haven’t heard, “we’re just getting started bro”
Rule #1: Never feel pretty confident about an away SEC game. Just look at the historical data.
Conference road games are always tough, but this isn’t your typical road SEC game. Crowd will be sparse at best. As the CBS commentator said…Mizzou is trending downward, Kentucky is trending upward.
I just hope Mark Stoops is paying attention. “People STILL don’t believe in you. Go out here and prove them wrong,” kind of thing. So much on the line tomorrow. Let’s get this W.
Good comment. This should be bulletin-board material, even if if is gambling-related.
Let’s not try to get ourselves too worked up over the point spread. 1. It should motivate UK to PLAY HARD knowing they are considered to be a BIG underdog. 2. If you are certain Las Vegas is wrong, then place your bets on the cats and reap the reward. 3. When the game is over, I hope UK Football will have earned the respect of Vegas rather than proving that Vegas knows more about this team than the fans do. GO CATS … KICK MIZZOU’s REAR… REAL GOOD!!!
Last time I checked those big hotels in Vegas did not build themselves.
True; the Corleones did.
They spouse to be SEC.
Both of them.
huh? they’re married to the SEC? I think you were going for “s’posed” not spouse
I’m in agreement that being the underdog is always motivation. Being slighted is always motivation. I happen to like the fight in this team’s dog right now. Let’s all channel our inner Jordan Jones.
Go Cats , We need this one . Going to be a lot of fun. At least we know we have a chance unlike other years when we where pretty sure we didn’t. GO CATS
Vegas is looking for Kentucky money, Too much Mizzou floating around.
This shouldn’t be surprising. All four of our wins have been at home against mediocre teams, and we haven’t exactly looked great in any of those wins. MTSU is no joke and is arguably better than Southern Miss. Add to that the fact that Stoops has not fared well on the road in the past. A good opportunity for Stoops and the players to change some perceptions.
Ditto
Finally, a logical response. Vegas doesn’t have the emotional attachment like fans do. Vegas pours over statistics….fans “bet” with their hearts.
Over/under at 70?? What is going on there?
I don’t understand that, I think it was Clay Travis that picked the over on 70 this morning in his top 10 picks this weekend and I would’ve guessed much lower.
MTSU may be better than Soluthern Miss, but they still lost to Vandy by 23. UK is a much better team than they were in week 1 as well, particularly on the Defensive side of the ball. Add to that the fact that Missou will be playing without their best defensive player and one of their best D-linemen that were there for at least part of that loss to MTSU.
All that said, the point about this being a road game in the SEC stands. Last time I checked, UK hasn’t won one of those yet this year. Let’s get that changed this weekend. Go CATS!
Give the 6.5..this is free money
Vegas odds have absolutely nothing to do with probability. There is some argument that opening odds do but those don’t really matter at all. The odds just indicate how people are betting and Vegas keeps enough of a spread that the house always wins. If a lot of Missouri fans bet then their win odds go down to get more Kentucky money and vice versa.
In general, yes. But I can’t see how you can literally say that vegas odds have nothing to do with probability. The initial line has A LOT to do with probability, and everything after that is adjusted to balance their payment risk based on bets wagered, like you said.
The initial line is also anticipating the betting from what I understand and even if it were 100% probability based there’s still no computer model that is very good at predicting games AND no game ever ends up at the initial line so yea … there is no relationship between the Vegas line and probability.
let me get this straight….. we gave up 500 yards to a 2 and 4 team….. and out defense has improved???
hmmmm……