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Sagarin Predictions: Updated spread for every game on UK’s schedule

It’s time to check up on this week’s Sagarin Ratings and how it predicts the spread for each of Kentucky’s remaining games on the schedule. This was a popular post last week before the South Carolina game, so we’re running it back this week and for the rest of the season.

Now let’s take a little peek at what’s ahead, carefully, to keep our expectations in check. To do that, I took the latest Sagarin predictor ratings to determine what the game spread should be if the games were played today. So you know, Sagarin’s predictor ratings set is one of the most trusted sources in predicting upcoming games and it is right in line with the Las Vegas spread each week. You can see the entire Week 6 ratings set here.

Now for Kentucky’s remaining schedule, in which Sagarin gives the Cats the edge in five of the seven games. I threw in ESPN’s FPI Win Probability for each game, too. It considers UK the favorite in four of the seven. Last week’s Sagarin spread and ESPN FPI are included to show the change since the Cats’ upset of South Carolina. For Kentucky’s first four games, I used the Las Vegas closing line because the weekly Sagarin ratings are not archived.

GameSagarin PredictorESPN FPIActual ScoreLast Week  
vs. Central Michigan-17*88.7%Won, 35-20
@ Florida+13.5*12.9%Won, 27-16
vs. Murray State-41*99.3%Won, 48-10
vs. Mississippi State+10*22.1%Won, 28-7
vs. South Carolina-0.546.3%Won, 24-10
@ Texas A&M+531.6%+1021.5%
vs. Vanderbilt-1484.7%-1076.5%
@ Missouri-0.541%+234.5%
vs. Georgia+818.9%+10.514.6%
@ Tennessee-1072.7%-8.570.5%
vs. MTSU-2693.3%-2390.9%
@ Louisville-980%-5.574.2%

Go Cats.

Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

12 Comments for Sagarin Predictions: Updated spread for every game on UK’s schedule

  1. TheAssman
    12:09 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

    -10 at UT….wow, when is the last time we have gone in there as a favorite, much less a 10 point favorite. How the mighty have fallen.

  2. chase
    12:15 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

    underdogs to Missouri in all but one metric? Methinks not

    • highway119
      12:58 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

      Chase, I don’t get it either. We have a 2 game winning streak against them, and their only meaningful win is a squeaker over a 2-3 Purdue team. This is South Carolina all over again. A mediocre team that is supposed to be on the rise is favored over a team actually on the rise because of previous hype. We had a better record than them in 2016, and the same record in 2017 with a head to head win in both. Just like USC, until they beat us, picking them over us doesn’t make much sense.

    • ukkatzfan
      1:33 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

      They did go on a run right after we beat them last year. Still not a reason though

    • foamfinger
      1:56 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

      By the way, the referees did admit in the Missouri-Purdue game that Purdue’s last scoring drive should have resulted in a touchdown, so that could have ended up as a loss for Mizzou in the end.

  3. brandond373
    12:20 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

    According to these numbers we have a better chance of beating Georgia than we did miss state we saw how well that worked

    • ClutchCargo
      1:22 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

      I think that’s probably because we actually did beat Miss. St. and the updated spread reflects that.

  4. Bluebloodtoo
    12:24 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

    The impact would probably be better if you showed the actual spread, rather than the score. Not everyone is well versed in betting lingo.

  5. Mathlete
    12:31 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

    Favored in all but 2 of the remaining games, and within 1 score in another. Legendary season for UK football if this were to hold up

    • Mathlete
      12:32 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

      two games within 1 score if you convert the 2 pointer in the Georgia game, if you want to get technical

  6. runningunnin.454
    2:02 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink

    By the way, Sagarin named the 1950 UK team National Football Champions….eat it Oklahoma and Tennessee.

  7. michaelb
    2:27 pm October 3, 2018 Permalink