It’s time to check up on this week’s Sagarin Ratings and how it predicts the spread for each of Kentucky’s remaining games on the schedule. This was a popular post last week before the South Carolina game, so we’re running it back this week and for the rest of the season.
Now let’s take a little peek at what’s ahead, carefully, to keep our expectations in check. To do that, I took the latest Sagarin predictor ratings to determine what the game spread should be if the games were played today. So you know, Sagarin’s predictor ratings set is one of the most trusted sources in predicting upcoming games and it is right in line with the Las Vegas spread each week. You can see the entire Week 6 ratings set here.
Now for Kentucky’s remaining schedule, in which Sagarin gives the Cats the edge in five of the seven games. I threw in ESPN’s FPI Win Probability for each game, too. It considers UK the favorite in four of the seven. Last week’s Sagarin spread and ESPN FPI are included to show the change since the Cats’ upset of South Carolina. For Kentucky’s first four games, I used the Las Vegas closing line because the weekly Sagarin ratings are not archived.
|Game||Sagarin Predictor||ESPN FPI||Actual Score||Last Week|
|vs. Central Michigan||-17*||88.7%||Won, 35-20|
|@ Florida||+13.5*||12.9%||Won, 27-16|
|vs. Murray State||-41*||99.3%||Won, 48-10|
|vs. Mississippi State||+10*||22.1%||Won, 28-7|
|vs. South Carolina||-0.5||46.3%||Won, 24-10|
|@ Texas A&M||+5||31.6%||+10||21.5%|