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Sagarin Predictions: The spread for every game on UK’s schedule

With four wins behind us, including two against ranked conference opponents, it’s an exciting time to be a Kentucky football fan. The Cats are undefeated and the remaining schedule leaves plenty of winnable games to do something special.

We should be taking it one game at a time, but that’s not easy given the circumstances. This is brand new territory for Big Blue Nation and we deserve to get a little carried away with our newfound optimism because we’ve never experienced it until now.

So let’s take a little peek at what’s ahead, carefully, to keep our expectations in check. To do that, I took the latest Sagarin ratings to determine what the game spread should be if the games were played today. So you know, Sagarin’s predictor ratings set is one of the most trusted sources in predicting upcoming games and it is right in line with the Las Vegas spread each week. You can see the entire Week 5 ratings set here.

Now for Kentucky’s remaining schedule, in which Sagarin gives the Cats the edge in five of the eight games. I threw in ESPN’s FPI Win Probability for each game, too; it considers UK the favorite in four of the eight.

GameSagarin PredictorESPN FPI Win Probability
vs. South Carolina-0.546.3%
@ Texas A&M+1021.5%
vs. Vanderbilt-1076.5%
@ Missouri+234.5%
vs. Georgia+10.514.6%
@ Tennessee-8.570.5%
vs. Middle Tennessee State-2390.9%
@ Louisville-5.574.2%

And for funsies, I calculated the odds if UK were to host Alabama in Kroger Field this year. Sagarin projects the Cats would be a 24.5 point underdog in that non-existent game.

But back to the slate ahead, if Kentucky wins only the games it should according to Sagarin, we’re looking at a nine-win regular season. Drop one of those five and it’s still the first eight-win regular season since the early 1980s.

Go Cats.

Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

32 Comments for Sagarin Predictions: The spread for every game on UK’s schedule

  1. Skooms
    1:06 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    Man, should I be more worried about South Carolina? The fans on their boards are VERY confident in not only beating UK, but beating them by at least 14 or more. They’re basing that off of beating Vandy and getting drug by GA. Lmao. We just gotta stop Snell and stack the box, their QB is garbage. Even Lousyville fans are saying Wilson is garbage. Man I hope he goes off on Saturday! Then what excuses will we here from USCe fans?

    • maximumscott
      1:12 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      Wilson will eat against SCar. He had too many opportunities to run against State but didnt take them. Im sure he will correct them. Im sure State didnt think about only stacking the box…

      Anyways, we tale enough calculated successful deep shops so the running game opens up, also we have a really great TE over the middle and a true dual threat QB

      Wilson will eat against a far less defense in SCar.
      UK will be more physica and the 2nd half will wilt SCar.

      It will be like the UGA game for them except not as bad.

      35-20 UK

    • maximumscott
      1:14 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      Louisville fans are funny. Saying our QB is garbage.
      WILSON is good but is new and needs time to develop, but he has the tools to be Elite and natural athletic abilities.

    • ClutchCargo
      1:22 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      If we come out all fired up like we did against Miss. St. it could get ugly for USC Jr. I’m VERY confident about that. Idiot fans can run their mouths all they want, but I would be very surprised to hear anything out of their players this week. lol

    • UK Big Board Update
      1:45 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      Dont worry about them – wonder about our “fans” who thought we’d lose to MSU by 2 TDs or more.

    • (Aixelsyd)0505
      5:39 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      Oh yea cause they are the true reason of impacting Kentucky football games?

    • ukcamel
      1:50 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      We should be worried about South Carolina. They are a good team that we will only beat if we come out ready to play and execute, just like we did against Florida and Miss St. – if we come out flat or expect them to lay down we will get rolled. Same goes for every other game on our schedule except Vandy and MTSU.

      That being said, with the leaders on this team—Snell, Conrad, Allen and Kash, I don’t expect anything less than a repeat of Saturday. Also remember that Terry is only getting better each week he plays in the SEC.

    • antiquefurnitureandmidgets
      2:00 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      SC may win and maybe by 14 or more. Who knows, but playing this game at Commonwealth if I’m an SC fan I’d have little confidence. What other fan bases should be concerned about when it comes to Terry is he’s already becoming a more gifted version of Stephen Johnson four games in. When he can make decisions a split second quicker he’ll be extremely dangerous. He’s already shown flashes with arm talent. Stacking the box won’t solve things for defending this team.

    • ClutchCargo
      2:17 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      I have zero doubt that we will come out ready to play Saturday . These guys have tasted success and they know exactly what they have had to do to make that happen.

    • Richard 26.2
      11:52 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      Awesome read Drew. I think the Cats will beat the gamecocks (how they are a favorite at Kroger field is beyond me). But, I think Mizzu will be a huge challenge and we may drop that one. All in all, 9-3 and the Outback Bowl verses Michigan.

  2. Duuuuuude
    1:18 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    So Sagarin is saying Kentucky wins half the remaining games on our schedule. That would put us at 8 and 4. I think we should win at least one of those that we are underdogs for.

    • ClutchCargo
      1:23 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      I was counting Miss. St. in the probable loss column before last weekend. Now it looks like 10-2 is do-able.

    • Yev
      2:11 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      OK, I have done the actual statistical analysis based upon Drew’s list of % chance to win. I did round so Midd Teen St 90.9% I rounded to 91%. Based upon those rounded numbers, here are the percentages chances of finising with the following amount of regular season wins out of 12.

      8 wins – 32% chance
      9 wins – 28% chance
      7 wins – 18% chance
      10 wins – 13% chance
      6 wins – 5% chance

      So right now there is a 91% chance that we end up with 7-10 wins, and a 73% chance we end up with 8-10 wins.

  3. bailey000
    1:38 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    I hate that it is hard to sell out as a Kentucky fan. But, everyone needs to stand up and do that right now. I was sold last year, but this years team is playing like a championship caliber team. I’m so serious right now. These other teams have to beat us before I’m saying we lose any games. Everyone else on here wants to say the same thing. Let’s get up

    • UK Big Board Update
      1:46 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      Define “championship caliber”.

    • ukkatzfan
      4:10 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      I would say that means beating georgia is possible. The Cats Definitely need a packed party house every time they are home.

  4. gasman01
    1:39 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    I believe 9-3 would have us playing in Florida New Years Day!!

  5. Mathlete
    1:47 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    USA Today did their re-rank of every D-1 team, aside from Georgia we’re being regarded as significantly better than every other team left on the schedule:

    UK – 17

    Georgia – 4
    SC – 33
    A&M – 35
    Mizzou – 47
    Vandy – 53
    Tennessee – 80
    Louisville – 82
    MTSU – 93

    Past opponents:
    MS State – 22
    Florida – 58
    Murray State – NR (FCS)

    Hopefully the players don’t let that get into our heads, they seem to play better with an edge after being disrespected.

    • Catuary
      1:54 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      Granted MSU and UF are lower because they lost to us. If we hadn’t played them yet, they’d be higher. Similarly, every team we’ve played so far as at least one loss. It’s like how UK basketball usually has the weakest in-conference SoS because everyone else has to play us and we never play ourselves!

    • Richard 26.2
      11:58 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      I lived in Texas for awhile and I can assure you A&M is better than that. They played Clemson and Bama. They will be very tough to beat in Kyle and in the Lone Star state. But, I would have wrote the same things about the gators too and we whooped them so in the end….who knows.

  6. Catuary
    1:51 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    I’d be thrilled to get to 9-3 in the regular season. Anything less than 8-4 would be a huge letdown. That being said, if a few things go our way and Georgia helps us out with a few losses, it’s not unfathomable to think we have an outside chance at playing in the SEC championship game against Alabama. Even though Bama would probably destroy us.

  7. michaelb
    2:14 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    I like Terry but I like our back up when he’s in. He’s a beast of a qb

  8. Blue Bill
    2:26 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    Win the ones we’re supposed to, and win just one of the ones we’re not, gives us 10!

  9. Mathlete
    2:27 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    What would be great… win 9 in football, then go win #9 in basketball. What a legendary year that would be

    • ukkatzfan
      4:22 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      If we only are going to win 9 in football, what 3 teams you got beating us. I had 9-3 with Miss St, Tex AM and Ga as concerns.

    • Skooms
      4:42 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      My guess would be losing at Mizzou. I think we’ll win, but that’s my guess on whom he’s referring to.

    • ukkatzfan
      5:54 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

      Ok. Hoping they just take it week by week. Right now Vandy is my third team. Vandy is pretty good this year.

  10. az1006
    4:46 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    I’ve had South Carolina and Missouri circled since the schedule came out as “toss-up” games that could really swing the season one way or the other. Granted, I expected us to lose either the Florida or MSU game, and since we won both, USC and Mizzou carry even more significance, IMO. I think we come out fired up Saturday…The fact we were underdogs when the lines came out shows just how little respect these guys have earned, and they’ll use that like they have all season. Not to mention the fact we’ve beaten South Carolina 4 straight, are more talented top-to-bottom than they are, and are playing at home.

    If you beat South Carolina, you’re staring 9-3 or 10-2 in the face.

  11. CoachCat
    6:07 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    Just remember winning is contagious. Can’t get a % on that

  12. W1ldCats4Life
    11:31 pm September 24, 2018 Permalink

    I just hope they have the same fierce pissed Off attitude Saturday against USC. Then worry about the next game. Right now it seems Stoops has been doing a good job of managing week to week….I hope that continues. You look beyond a team for the slightest second and they will jump up and kick your teeth in. This is the SEC, every week anyone can win….even Vandy.

  13. zoupman
    8:39 am September 25, 2018 Permalink

    Thanks Drew. I’ve been wondering what this looked like now. Start of season we were favored in 4 games and two toss ups. Big improvement.
    If we can get to 8 regular season wins, Ill be so happy.