With four wins behind us, including two against ranked conference opponents, it’s an exciting time to be a Kentucky football fan. The Cats are undefeated and the remaining schedule leaves plenty of winnable games to do something special.
We should be taking it one game at a time, but that’s not easy given the circumstances. This is brand new territory for Big Blue Nation and we deserve to get a little carried away with our newfound optimism because we’ve never experienced it until now.
So let’s take a little peek at what’s ahead, carefully, to keep our expectations in check. To do that, I took the latest Sagarin ratings to determine what the game spread should be if the games were played today. So you know, Sagarin’s predictor ratings set is one of the most trusted sources in predicting upcoming games and it is right in line with the Las Vegas spread each week. You can see the entire Week 5 ratings set here.
Now for Kentucky’s remaining schedule, in which Sagarin gives the Cats the edge in five of the eight games. I threw in ESPN’s FPI Win Probability for each game, too; it considers UK the favorite in four of the eight.
|Game||Sagarin Predictor||ESPN FPI Win Probability|
|vs. South Carolina||-0.5||46.3%|
|@ Texas A&M||+10||21.5%|
|vs. Middle Tennessee State||-23||90.9%|
And for funsies, I calculated the odds if UK were to host Alabama in Kroger Field this year. Sagarin projects the Cats would be a 24.5 point underdog in that non-existent game.
But back to the slate ahead, if Kentucky wins only the games it should according to Sagarin, we’re looking at a nine-win regular season. Drop one of those five and it’s still the first eight-win regular season since the early 1980s.