Here we are once again, back to examine Kentucky’s game-by-game odds and projected points spreads after the Cats were handed their first loss of the year in heartbreaking fashion to Florida.
There isn’t too much change in the way Sagarin’s ratings and the ESPN FPI see the rest of the season for Kentucky, coming off that missed opportunity at home last weekend. Sagarin’s point spread for the upcoming Mississippi State game is a little tighter than how Vegas sees it, while the ESPN FPI upped UK’s chances of victory by about six percent from a week ago.
Overall, both Sagarin and the ESPN FPI love Kentucky in the Arkansas game and the four games to finish the year — Kentucky is a double-digit favorite in those five — but it will take some good football to win games at Mississippi State and South Carolina. The game at Georgia is a long shot, as expected, while we’re down to a Pick ‘Em in the home game against Mizzou.
Win the five games in which you’re heavily-favored and at worst it is a seven-win season:
Here’s a glossary in case you’re lost:
Sagarin Predictor — Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings provide predictions for upcoming games by comparing the two Sagarin ratings for each team, plus an additional amount of points for home field advantage. For example: In Sagarin’s Week 2 ratings, Kentucky has a 76.06 rating; Eastern Michigan is a 61.52; and he sets home field advantage at 2.25 points. So you add home field (2.25) to Kentucky’s rating (76.06) and subtract Eastern Michigan’s rating (61.52) to get a difference of 16.79 points. Round to the nearest half-point to find Sagarin’s predicted point spread is Kentucky favored by 17 over the visiting Eagles.
ESPN FPI — Kentucky’s win probability in each game, using ESPN’s Power Football Index.
Actual Score — The actual score of the game, obviously.
Opening Line — The opening betting line on the game, via VegasInsider.com.
Closing Line — The betting line on the game at kickoff after taking into account the number of bets and money on each side.