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Odds Watch: UK is double-digit favorite in five remaining games

Here we are once again, back to examine Kentucky’s game-by-game odds and projected points spreads after the Cats were handed their first loss of the year in heartbreaking fashion to Florida.

There isn’t too much change in the way Sagarin’s ratings and the ESPN FPI see the rest of the season for Kentucky, coming off that missed opportunity at home last weekend. Sagarin’s point spread for the upcoming Mississippi State game is a little tighter than how Vegas sees it, while the ESPN FPI upped UK’s chances of victory by about six percent from a week ago.

Overall, both Sagarin and the ESPN FPI love Kentucky in the Arkansas game and the four games to finish the year — Kentucky is a double-digit favorite in those five — but it will take some good football to win games at Mississippi State and South Carolina. The game at Georgia is a long shot, as expected, while we’re down to a Pick ‘Em in the home game against Mizzou.

Win the five games in which you’re heavily-favored and at worst it is a seven-win season:

Here’s a glossary in case you’re lost:

Sagarin Predictor — Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings provide predictions for upcoming games by comparing the two Sagarin ratings for each team, plus an additional amount of points for home field advantage. For example: In Sagarin’s Week 2 ratings, Kentucky has a 76.06 rating; Eastern Michigan is a 61.52; and he sets home field advantage at 2.25 points. So you add home field (2.25) to Kentucky’s rating (76.06) and subtract Eastern Michigan’s rating (61.52) to get a difference of 16.79 points. Round to the nearest half-point to find Sagarin’s predicted point spread is Kentucky favored by 17 over the visiting Eagles.

ESPN FPI — Kentucky’s win probability in each game, using ESPN’s Power Football Index.

Actual Score — The actual score of the game, obviously.

Opening Line — The opening betting line on the game, via

Closing Line — The betting line on the game at kickoff after taking into account the number of bets and money on each side.


Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

12 Comments for Odds Watch: UK is double-digit favorite in five remaining games

  1. DOCUK18
    3:32 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

    Hey what happened with Harold from Marshall county?

  2. MattTheCat
    3:54 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

    Come out with a convincing win at Mississippi State and we’ll be favored in every game except UGA. The loss was brutal, but 10-2 (or 9-3) isn’t bad in a bridge year… because next year we will be absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball if we can keep from having a bunch of early departures.

    • shelby3605
      5:37 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

      I predicted 8-4 and would still be very happy with that.

    • cats646
      5:51 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

      Think about what we’re saying. We’ll be happy with 8-10 wins on a rebuilding year?! In my lifetime before stoops our best year was 7-5. It truly is amazing how far Stoops has brought this program!

  3. DelrayCat
    6:28 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

    Good God…anyone dumb enough to take UK -18 vs. Tennessee needs to have their head examined. I’d take a UK by 1 all day and Sunday.

    • DelrayCat
      6:32 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

      Same with Arkansas….that is a much improved team. And from what I have seen, not any worse than UK.

    • cats646
      8:43 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

      Arkansas not any worse than UK? Wtf are you smoking??

    • DelrayCat
      9:12 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

      Arkansas hung almost 600 yards on Kansas State…who aint no slouch…just sayin

    • satcheluk
      10:03 pm September 18, 2019 Permalink

      Ark did not play Kansas St. Miss st played KSU.

  4. DelrayCat
    6:30 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

    They could win 6 of next 7…or lose them all. The variance is not that great and get ready for a lot of close games.

    • mashburnfan1
      8:41 pm September 17, 2019 Permalink

      Not if we play well and don’t make mistakes. Should have beat UF by double digits, we lost the game, UF did not win the game. Up 14-7 and driving to start 3rd quarter when Smith throws a bad pick that Bowden stopped route on. Instead of us getting 7 we give up 3 with a 10 point swing. Only 10 points UF had in first 3 quarters were from drives starting inside our 30 because of turnovers. Then late 3rd and all of 4th we go to prevent defense and let them beat us 8 to 15 yards per play, like a slow death because we did not want to give up a big play. SAD. As it is sad for you to say Ark is on same level, would hate to watch what you have seen.

  5. BluKudzu
    5:30 am September 18, 2019 Permalink

    Take the points.