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Odds Watch: Sagarin’s system is drunk this week

We are back again this week to take a look at how Kentucky’s game-by-game odds change each new week of the college football season.

This week we should take Sagarin’s ratings with a grain of salt, though, because the forecasting system appears to be broken at the moment. For reasons beyond the realm of imagination, Georgia is ranked No. 46 in Sagarin’s rankings which gives Kentucky the slight nod in that matchup later this season. That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

As for every other game, things seem normal and the ESPN’s FPI probabilities look to be pretty in line as well.

See how everything has changed now that we’ve had two weekends of football:

Here’s a glossary in case you’re lost:

Sagarin Predictor — Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings provide predictions for upcoming games by comparing the two Sagarin ratings for each team, plus an additional amount of points for home field advantage. For example: In Sagarin’s Week 2 ratings, Kentucky has a 76.06 rating; Eastern Michigan is a 61.52; and he sets home field advantage at 2.25 points. So you add home field (2.25) to Kentucky’s rating (76.06) and subtract Eastern Michigan’s rating (61.52) to get a difference of 16.79 points. Round to the nearest half-point to find Sagarin’s predicted point spread is Kentucky favored by 17 over the visiting Eagles.

ESPN FPI — Kentucky’s win probability in each game, using ESPN’s Power Football Index.

Actual Score — The actual score of the game, obviously.

Opening Line — The opening betting line on the game, via VegasInsider.com.

Closing Line — The betting line on the game at kickoff after taking into account the number of bets and money on each side.

Fix your formula, Sagarin.

Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

4 Comments for Odds Watch: Sagarin’s system is drunk this week



  1. ukjaybrat
    12:09 pm September 10, 2019 Permalink

    so you’re telling me there’s a chance …



  2. ibescootch
    2:54 pm September 10, 2019 Permalink

    If we only win out based on predictions, that’s an 8 win regular season, with a bowl game. I wouldn’t be mad at that.



  3. ukisdabest
    4:40 pm September 10, 2019 Permalink

    They have us losing to SCock?



  4. ukisdabest
    4:44 pm September 10, 2019 Permalink

    How’s r we projected to lose to SCock