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Odds Watch: Future odds rise for UK after first weekend of football

With Kentucky handling its business against Toledo plus some heartbreak for others around the league, confidence in the Cats is on the rise moving into the second weekend of the season.

For example, the ESPN FPI’s projection for Kentucky’s season win total jumped from 7.0 to 7.6, as did its win probabilities for Kentucky in many of the remaining games.

One of the most dramatic swings in UK’s win probabilities came in the Nov. 9 game against Tennessee as UK’s chances jumped from 38.6% to 65.6% after only one weekend of games. (Thanks, Georgia State!) The projected spread on that game, using Jeff Sagarin’s ratings system, moved from -2.5 to -9.5, in favor of Kentucky.

Each week we will take a look at how the projections for the remainder of UK’s season change with how the games play out every weekend. We will begin this week with a comparison of numbers before and after the Week 1 games, in which Kentucky beat Toledo (and covered the spread) while three of its opponents — Tennessee, South Carolina and Missouri — were upset.

Here’s a glossary in case you’re lost:

Sagarin Predictor — Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings provide predictions for upcoming games by comparing the two Sagarin ratings for each team, plus an additional amount of points for home field advantage. For example: In Sagarin’s Week 2 ratings, Kentucky has a 76.06 rating; Eastern Michigan is a 61.52; and he sets home field advantage at 2.25 points. So you add home field (2.25) to Kentucky’s rating (76.06) and subtract Eastern Michigan’s rating (61.52) to get a difference of 16.79 points. Round to the nearest half-point to find Sagarin’s predicted point spread is Kentucky favored by 17 over the visiting Eagles.

ESPN FPI — Kentucky’s win probability in each game, using ESPN’s Power Football Index.

Actual Score — The actual score of the game, obviously.

Opening Line — The opening betting line on the game, via

Closing Line — The betting line on the game at kickoff after taking into account the number of bets and money on each side.

The main takeaways from this first comparison are that Kentucky’s odds climbed in every SEC game on the schedule. We’ll see how it looks again this time next week once the results are in from the second weekend of football.

Go Cats.

Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

9 Comments for Odds Watch: Future odds rise for UK after first weekend of football

  1. UKfanman01
    8:15 pm September 3, 2019 Permalink

    Screw the “experts”. I dont want those bandwagon douches pulling for my team now. They all had UK winning no more than 6.

    • satcheluk
      7:51 am September 5, 2019 Permalink

      You realize these are objective purely statistical analysis, right? No expert is deciding anything.

  2. JASUN74
    9:19 pm September 3, 2019 Permalink

    I know what you’re saying UKfanman01, but we need all the support we can get. I want to hear Kentucky’s Football team being named every time I turn around. Lol. I want the stands filled and I want all our fans to enjoy watching and talking about our Cats. I used to hate the bandwagon fans, but now I just feel like, Better late than never. Haha. You have a good one bud. Go Cats.

  3. JASUN74
    9:25 pm September 3, 2019 Permalink

    Ohh yeah, sorry Drew, I meant to say good post. Im going to love seeing that every week. Hopefully we keep Moving on up like George and Wezzie!!! Lol. You guys are absolutely killing it on the radio and to me personally, it’s the best thing going. Thanks for all the hard work you do my brother, keep it up and we’ll all be right there for the ride. E. Michigan 17, Kentucky 46!!! Go Cats

  4. VMI1957
    10:11 pm September 3, 2019 Permalink

    East Mich 27 UK 21

    • Thetruthshallsetbennyfree
      11:17 pm September 3, 2019 Permalink

      EM’s total yardage vs UK’s first downs.
      Nice job VMI.

    • 4everUKblue
      11:52 pm September 3, 2019 Permalink

      VMI, I’m confused. Did we win? How many SEC teams won against non SEC teams last weekend?

  5. You Can Call Me Cal
    11:30 pm September 3, 2019 Permalink

    This was a great post last season but the size of the table was bigger and more easily read. So… FIX IT, NOW!

  6. mashburnfan1
    12:23 am September 4, 2019 Permalink

    What was GA State win chances %? None of this matters, it is settled on the field and I like this team 100% of the time.