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Odds Watch: Cats still expected to win five more games (according to the numbers)

Odds Watch is back this week to forecast the future of Kentucky football by predicting the upcoming point spreads and win probabilities for the seven remaining games on the schedule. That being said, I wouldn’t recommend putting too much emphasis on these numbers considering the quarterback situation in Lexington. (I don’t think the analytics account for a star wide receiver/punt returner moving to quarterback midway through the year.)

Nonetheless, the weekly feature continues (even during the bye week) because we are all about consistency.

A few takeaways:

— The Missouri game was a pick ’em only two weeks ago, but has since moved to the Tigers giving up 10 points to the Cats in Lexington. UK’s win probability via the FPI dropped from 49.1% to 36.2% for that game.

— Sagarin’s spread for the Louisville game is down to a touchdown. I don’t like that.

— If the line on the Georgia game is still -20.5 on Oct. 19, put everything you own on the Bulldogs to cover.

See how things have changed from week to week:

As usual, here’s a glossary in case you’re lost:

Sagarin Predictor — Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings provide predictions for upcoming games by comparing the two Sagarin ratings for each team, plus an additional amount of points for home field advantage. For example: In Sagarin’s Week 2 ratings, Kentucky has a 76.06 rating; Eastern Michigan is a 61.52; and he sets home field advantage at 2.25 points. So you add home field (2.25) to Kentucky’s rating (76.06) and subtract Eastern Michigan’s rating (61.52) to get a difference of 16.79 points. Round to the nearest half-point to find Sagarin’s predicted point spread is Kentucky favored by 17 over the visiting Eagles.

ESPN FPI — Kentucky’s win probability in each game, using ESPN’s Power Football Index.

Actual Score — The actual score of the game, obviously.

Opening Line — The opening betting line on the game, via

Closing Line — The betting line on the game at kickoff after taking into account the number of bets and money on each side.

Go Cats.

Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

10 Comments for Odds Watch: Cats still expected to win five more games (according to the numbers)

  1. DelrayCat
    9:41 pm October 3, 2019 Permalink

    Lose to Arkansas and they will only be favored in 1 more.

  2. DelrayCat
    9:42 pm October 3, 2019 Permalink

    It seems inevitable this team will need the UL game to go to a bowl. Both teams will probably be 5-6.

  3. RAGE
    9:43 pm October 3, 2019 Permalink

    If Starkel plays against Kentucky… We will def have to play better than we have the last 2 games… Ark is not a great team but neither was South Carolina

    • Skooms
      8:46 am October 4, 2019 Permalink

      I think you’re confused. Starkel is garbage and the only reason they hung with A&M is because Starkel was pulled out after being injured.

  4. WKY Cat
    9:58 pm October 3, 2019 Permalink

    Be hard to get to 6 wins. Offense is anemic.

  5. BluKudzu
    11:01 pm October 3, 2019 Permalink

    I know the season has not been what we want, but, we might be able to pull 6 if everything else works out.
    Have to hand it to LB, stepping up to QB.
    His entire career could end with one stupid injury, which our coaches are willing to risk. What a shame not to have someone to hand off the ball and a line that can run block.

    • JASUN74
      5:25 am October 4, 2019 Permalink

      So even with Lynn being our best option, do you not think he should play at all?? Just sit out the rest of the season?? Man these guys get scholarships to get a free education to come to school and play sports!! Why wouldn’t our coach want him to play?? That’s a bunch of shiiit dude!! Why the hell are they getting these perks and a free ride to school if they’re not going to play. He could quit any damn time he wants and just be a student. Maybe you can go to class with him and carry his frickn books so he don’t hurt his little arm. What the hell?? Every damn player on the field can get hurt on any play, so what’s wrong with him playing Quarterback?? I swear to god We’ve got the worst whinny bunch of kids that post here that I’ve ever seen. Get you ass up and get ready for school Mr! WOW

    • cats646
      5:50 am October 4, 2019 Permalink

      Get’em Jasun!!
      GO BIG BLUE!!!!

    • AlwaysTrueBlue
      11:21 am October 4, 2019 Permalink

      Every time LB steps on the field he risk injury and I don’t think he is a top flight receiver yet. Will he get drafted but I wouldn’t put him in the top 5 receivers in the country. He can be and I would not take anyone over him but not there. What I like is LB’s willingness to do whats best for the team and I believe he will do that even if that means he plays QB and I think that will protect him more and improve his draft stock. I could be wrong!

  6. BUCats
    2:55 pm October 4, 2019 Permalink

    Nerd alert – we are favored in 5 games, but only expected to win 4 (technically 4.2).