Odds Watch is back this week to forecast the future of Kentucky football by predicting the upcoming point spreads and win probabilities for the seven remaining games on the schedule. That being said, I wouldn’t recommend putting too much emphasis on these numbers considering the quarterback situation in Lexington. (I don’t think the analytics account for a star wide receiver/punt returner moving to quarterback midway through the year.)
Nonetheless, the weekly feature continues (even during the bye week) because we are all about consistency.
A few takeaways:
— The Missouri game was a pick ’em only two weeks ago, but has since moved to the Tigers giving up 10 points to the Cats in Lexington. UK’s win probability via the FPI dropped from 49.1% to 36.2% for that game.
— Sagarin’s spread for the Louisville game is down to a touchdown. I don’t like that.
— If the line on the Georgia game is still -20.5 on Oct. 19, put everything you own on the Bulldogs to cover.
See how things have changed from week to week:
As usual, here’s a glossary in case you’re lost:
Sagarin Predictor — Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings provide predictions for upcoming games by comparing the two Sagarin ratings for each team, plus an additional amount of points for home field advantage. For example: In Sagarin’s Week 2 ratings, Kentucky has a 76.06 rating; Eastern Michigan is a 61.52; and he sets home field advantage at 2.25 points. So you add home field (2.25) to Kentucky’s rating (76.06) and subtract Eastern Michigan’s rating (61.52) to get a difference of 16.79 points. Round to the nearest half-point to find Sagarin’s predicted point spread is Kentucky favored by 17 over the visiting Eagles.
ESPN FPI — Kentucky’s win probability in each game, using ESPN’s Power Football Index.
Actual Score — The actual score of the game, obviously.
Opening Line — The opening betting line on the game, via VegasInsider.com.
Closing Line — The betting line on the game at kickoff after taking into account the number of bets and money on each side.