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Luckett’s Locks: Ride the hot hand

(Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)

(Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)

Well, I hope you latched onto us last week. Our #FadeKansas movement got us started while the Boston College ACC trend remained strong. Then a couple of SEC unders brought us home and we recorded an unblemished 5-0 mark to improve our season record to 12-7. Picking covers is what we’re here for and we’ll be looking to do it again tomorrow.

We have an exciting Saturday set for us with plenty of rain in the forecast all over the country thanks to Hurricane Delta. That could get more eyes to the under and we have seen that play out with some of the lines presented by the bookmakers. However, there is plenty of value available with a three top 25 matchups. Get excited.

Let’s get to the best plays on the card.

Virginia Tech @ North Carolina (-4.5)

Both the Hokies and Tar Heels are off to nice starts in the ACC and the winner of this matchup could arise as the best competition to Notre Dame and Miami in the battle of the No. 2 to meet Clemson in the conference championship. Mack Brown has it rolling at in Chapel Hill while Justin Fuente has this Virginia Tech offense playing at a very high level despite a ton of COVID-19 issues.

Virginia Tech leads the ACC in yards per play on offense while North Carolina leads the ACC in yards per play defense. It will be strength vs. strength on that side of the ball, but the game will be determined on the other side. North Carolina currently ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and Sam Howell will be the best player on the field.

Lay the points with the home favorite as Brown continues to collect steam. The Tar Heels have a great chance to be 8-0 when they visit South Bend on Thanksgiving Friday.

Florida @ Texas A&M Over 58

After just two games, Kyle Trask may be the Heisman frontrunner with some ridiculous numbers (71.8% completion rate, 9.6 yards per attempt, 10/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 196.4 QB rating). The Gators are putting up 7.8 yards per play and 44.5 points per game in year three under Dan Mullen and could be a national championship contender.

In College Station, A&M is off to a 1-1 start but the early results have not been promising. The Aggies were very sloppy against Vanderbilt and were exposed last week against Alabama. However, senior quarterback Kellen Mond looks serviceable and running back Isaiah Spiller is putting up over seven yards per carry. This is good news when preparing to play a Florida defense that has given up plenty of points through eight quarters.

The Gators have one of the best offenses in the country and they are going to get over 30 on every team they play this season. However, in a bounce back spot, A&M should be able to have some success against what has been a leaky Todd Grantham defense. A shootout could take place at Kyle Field and it’s time to jump on the over.

Arkansas @ Auburn Under 46.5

Things can change quickly. Auburn was feeling good about themselves after beating Kentucky, but once again their offense was exposed in a double-digit loss to Georgia. Now Chad Morris finds himself on the opposite sideline facing a roster he recruited.

The Tigers are in a bounce back spot and they’ll be without All-SEC linebacker K.J. Britt for the foreseeable future. However, the Morris and Malzahn offense is a bit banged up and the weather forecast on the Plains is not looking good. The line is up to around two touchdowns, but that’s not where the value is.

Arkansas ranks second in the SEC in yards per play defense, but their offense might be the worst rushing group in the conference. This one screams field position battle and therefore we’re riding another SEC under.

Pittsburgh @ Boston College (+6)

Both Pitt and BC are fresh off very tough home losses with the Panthers blowing a fourth quarter lead to NC State while the Eagles dropped a tough one to North Carolina. However, both must get off the deck quickly with another winnable game upcoming.

In the midday kickoff in Chestnut Hill, Pitt with its No. 3 overall defense will take on Boston College’s pass heavy offense led by Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec. It’ll be a slugfest against two teams that really labor to run the football and lean on their quarterbacks to consistently make plays.

BC is an impressive 20-5-4 in their last 29 ACC games and they’re set to face a Pitt squad that loves to play in close games. With two defensive coordinators at the helm in Jeff Hafley and Pat Narduzzi, this one stays conservative and tight throughout. Take the home dog.

Kansas State @ TCU Over 50.5

Red River is being played this weekend at the Cotton Bowl, but both the Longhorns and Sooners are looking up to pair of teams with purple jerseys in the Big XII standings. K-State beat Oklahoma in Norman while TCU knocked off Texas in Austin and now both of these programs have legit conference title aspirations.

K-State just extended second year head coach Chris Klieman following beating Oklahoma in consecutive seasons and they are off to a 2-0 league start. Meanwhile, true freshman running back Deuce Vaughn is reminding many of Darren Sproles. Over in Fort Worth, TCU wasn’t sure they’d have Max Duggan behind center this season but he’s been spectacular to start the year.

The weather is set to be beautiful at Amon G. Carter Stadium and both these teams have proven they can score some points. The winner will likely have to put up 30 and that should easily gets us over the total. Let’s play the over in what could be a very exciting game against two plucky programs.

Best Bet: Tennessee @ Georgia Under 43

Yes, you read that right. For the third week in a row we are playing a Georgia under and this week it’s the feature SEC game airing on CBS with Cousin Brad and Gary Danielson on the call. Let’s ride this puppy out with some punts.

Tennessee enters Sanford Stadium the winners of eight straight and they’ve passed their early season tests against South Carolina and Missouri. The Volunteers are stingy on defense and have a strong offensive line teamed up with a redshirt senior quarterback. The problem is they are set to face the best defense in college football over at Georgia.

There has been way too much Stetson Bennett IV hype this week and now with some tape out, the Vols will figure out a way to limit what he does well. Both teams are going to find it very hard to consistently run the football despite having two good offensive lines. Both Jeremy Pruitt and Kirby Smart aren’t afraid to get conservative so expect this one to be low scoring in the battle of two former Alabama defensive coordinators. The first one to 20 may just be the winner “Between the Hedges”.

Article written by Adam Luckett

Twitter: @AdamLuckettKSR