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Let It Ride: A Dozen Betting Trends to Know For College Football Season

(Photo: © Getty Images)

(Photo: © Getty Images)

Believe it or not, we are officially one month away from the SEC season starting but the rest of college football is even closer. FCS programs Austin Peay and Central Arkansas will get the party started this tonight before a handful of others start the week after that. The ACC and Big XII both plan to begin on the weekend of September 12th while the Big Ten may be joining us all again come Thanksgiving.

The season is quickly approaching and that means that sports books and your old friend Uncle Bo will be getting plenty of business very soon. Part of football’s popularity is because of how easy it is to gamble on and I’m sure many of you partake. To help you gain a little edge this season, I’ve collected some very important information to know.

With the help of my good friend Phil Steele, I have combed over every FBS program that plans to play football this fall and looked over recent against the spread numbers to try to find some valuable information. After an hour or so of research, I have come up with a handful and want to share that information with the KSR faithful. Make sure you bookmark this page as it should be able to help you during the season when you are chasing or just trying to find that sixth team for your ridiculous parlay.

1.) Coach O Howls on the Road

Ed Orgeron is fresh off of a national championship and four consecutive top-20 finishes as he has accumulated a .816 winning percentage in Baton Rouge. He’s been good in a lot of areas, but he’s at his best as a dog on the road. The Tigers are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) under Coach O with three straight up wins away from Tiger Stadium. With road trips to Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M on the slate, keep this in mind.

2.) Clemson > ACC

To no one’s surprise, Dabo’s squad flat out owns the Atlantic Coast Conference on the field but they also collect wins in the desert. The Tigers are 17-2-1 ATS in their last 20 games against conference competition with many covers coming with a spread of four touchdowns or more. Don’t be afraid to lay the points with Clemson early and often against ACC competition.

3.) Kentucky’s Wrong Trend

Mark Stoops has snapped a lot of bad Kentucky football trends, but one that is going the wrong way is games that the Wildcats are expected to win at home. UK is just 4-9 ATS in their last 11 home games with an 0-6 mark against the SEC. That has to change with four very winnable home games on the schedule this season.

4.) Cocktail Party Lean

Florida has been one of the most popular teams during talking season and many are considering the Gators as the favorites in the SEC East. However, Georgia is lurking and the division title could be determined at the World’s Largest Cocktail Party that won’t be that large this year. When considering that, there are some numbers you need to know. At UGA, Kirby Smart is 10-3 ATS at neutral sites while Dan Mullen is 4-9 ATS at neutral sites as a head coach. Take the Bulldogs.

5.) BYU Travels

Kalani Sitake has had a very up-and-down tenure in Provo with a 27-25 overall record in four seasons. The independent playing program has a wacky schedule this year, but they are really good in one spot. Sitake is 11-2 ATS as a road dog since taking over. If BYU is getting points on the road, take the Cougars.

6.) Boston College Owns the ACC???

Steve Addazio has left Boston College for Colorado State, but while in Chestnut Hill he was unbelievable against the number. Despite just a .500 record in league play over the last three seasons, the Eagles were an absurd 18-5-4 ATS in their last 27 league games. Addazio is gone, but in year one under Jeff Hafley this identity should remain. BC is always a safe bet in ACC play.

7.) Don’t Sleep on Muschamp

South Carolina’s head coach appears to be firmly on the hot seat and he just lost perhaps his best offensive player for the season, but he’s been good on the road. Will Muschamp is 7-2 ATS as a road dog and the Gamecocks project to be in that spot four times this season.

8.) Don’t Play a Favorite at Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Bill Snyder built a very strong reputation as a plucky underdog with the Wildcats often times giving teams fits in the Little Apple and last year that continued under Chris Klieman. The purple cats knocked off Oklahoma and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home dog. K-State has covered four in a row and eight out of nine. Be very careful when you visit on December 5th, Texas.

9.) Fade Louisville on the Road

Scott Satterfield did some really good things in year one at Louisville and the Cardinals are getting some top 25 buzz this offseason. Expectations are high on South Floyd Street, but there is one area where they need a ton of improvement. UofL is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and last year we saw them get thumped by both Miami and Kentucky. Take the points if you get them when the Cards head on the road.

10.) Touchdown Jesus

One of the biggest games on the 2020 calendar will happen on November 7th when the Irish host Clemson for what may be a preview of the ACC championship. Brian Kelly is 33-6 in the last three years and figures to have another good team. The Golden Domers don’t get points at home often, but they are on a 4-game winning streak when they do. Keep that in mind when Dabo comes to town for the most hyped up game of the season.

11.) Tops Travel

Tyson Helton had a spectacular debut in year one in Bowling Green and WKU is a legit contender in the C-USA this season behind a defense that may be the best in the Group of 5. The Toppers travel to Cardinal Stadium to open the season against Louisville on September 12th and that’s a good thing for them. WKU has been road warriors going 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games and they’ll look to continue that hot run in 2020.

12.) Wake Protects the House

Dave Clawson has led Wake Forest to 30 wins and four bowl appearances in the last four seasons, but after losing Jamie Newman to Georgia and star wideout Sage Surratt to an opt-out, expectations are very low for the Deacs. However, Clawson is used to operating in this spot and that’s where his team performs best. When getting points at home, Wake is 10-4 ATS and figures to get a bunch of opportunities in that situation this fall. Don’t sleep on Wake when they get someone at home.

Football is coming.*

Article written by Adam Luckett

Twitter: @AdamLuckettKSR