Last week, we all got pretty excited about Kentucky being No. 18 in Pro Football Focus’ Power Rankings, which are based on the site’s unique offensive, defensive, and special teams grades. After a 38-17 win over Eastern Michigan, the Cats stayed at No. 18. Citing Greenline, PFF’s betting predictor, Ben Brown says Kentucky is a great bet to cover vs. Florida this week, and has a decent chance to get the win.
“The Wildcats have quietly covered twice for us against quality, small school opponents and now face their first real test in the SEC with Florida coming to Lexington. Greenline gives Kentucky a 58.4% chance of covering as a home dog with over a touchdown spread. Betting markets give Kentucky an implied win probability of 27.5% with Greenline liking that price as the weekend approaches. With the up-and-down play of both quarterbacks, it may come down to who can avoid costly mistakes in this SEC matchup.”
Florida also didn’t move, remaining at No. 9 following a 45-0 win over UT Martin; however, Brown didn’t exactly rave about Feleipe Franks, calling his performance vs. the Skyhawks “adequate.”
“Franks play when kept clean has been encouraging with a 78.7 PFF passing grade and an 85 % adjusted completion percentage. Not so encouraging is his aDOT when clean (4.7) or the amount of times thrown past the sticks (25.7%). The Gators head to Kentucky to take on the 18th-ranked Wildcats. Opening as 8.5-point favorites, this line has moved down a full point with Greenline siding with the home dog. It will take a performance we are not sure if Franks can deliver in order to cover on the road this Saturday.”
Or, you know, win. Here’s how the PFF Top 25 (analytics) compares to the AP Top 25 (opinions) this week:
|AP Top 25||PFF Top 25|
|6||Ohio State||6||Ohio State|
|13||Penn State||13||Mississippi State|