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Kentucky football’s updated win total: Over or Under?

With 43 days until the season opener, let’s check in on Kentucky’s win totals in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Bovada currently has Kentucky’s win total at 5.5, meaning you can essentially bet on whether or not the Cats will go bowling this season.

Here are the rest of the win totals in the league:

  • Alabama: 11
  • Georgia: 10.5
  • Auburn: 9
  • Mississippi State: 8.5
  • Florida: 8
  • South Carolina: 7.5
  • LSU: 7
  • Texas A&M: 7
  • Missouri: 6.5
  • Ole Miss: 6
  • Arkansas: 5.5
  • Kentucky: 5.5
  • Tennessee: 5.5
  • Vanderbilt: 4.5

Can Kentucky get to six? A reminder of the 2018 schedule:

  • September 1: Central Michigan
  • September 8: at Florida
  • September 15: Murray State
  • September 22: Mississippi State
  • September 29: South Carolina
  • October 6: at Texas A&M
  • October 20: Vanderbilt
  • October 27: at Missouri
  • November 3: Georgia
  • November 10: at Tennessee
  • November 17: Middle Tennessee
  • November 24: at Louisville

If there’s ever a year to beat Tennessee in Knoxville, this is it. Thoughts?


Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

49 Comments for Kentucky football’s updated win total: Over or Under?

  1. Parker_UKFanNC
    1:13 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    I see 7 wins. The first 3, then Vandy, South Carolina, Tennessee, and middle Tennessee

    • Mathlete
      1:16 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      We’re not winning at Florida. Maybe a 1% chance of that happening with Mullen in charge down in Gainesville now.

    • cats646
      1:20 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      I’ll take the over all day. Florida is ours this year

    • Luether
      1:26 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      My sources say 6 – 6…

    • krautdog
      3:28 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Agreed. IF we can pull off a W @ Tennessee.

    • ClutchCargo
      3:21 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      @Mathlete – so you’re saying there’s a chance! 🙂

    • J. Did
      5:34 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      GO CATS!


  2. Mathlete
    1:19 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    I see 7 regular season wins this year:

    Central Mich
    Murray State

    Steal one from @Mizzou, @A&M, or MS State and it’s a great year as far as I’m concerned.

  3. jahanc2uky
    1:21 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    #EXPECT8!! How in the hell is UK not expected to win 8 games every year?! Here is the math: 3 out of 4 non conference, 1 of 2 West SEC, 4 of 6 East SEC wins. I am not going to argue our history and if this was historical possible (it wasnt). However, present and future expectations are not past expectations. UT & Mizz’s Atheltic Departments are in shambles. SC is not the recruiting base it use to be and Kentucky is producing GREAT college football talent of late and the next couple of years. Vandy sucks. There are the 4 programs we should be expected to beat going FORWARD. Thoughts?

    • Kernel Sanders
      2:09 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Your whole comment hinges on the word “expected”. First, UK is not expected to win 8 because when was the last time we did? From the SEC West (you expect 1 win out of 2), we play Miss. St. And Texas A&M. MSU returns pretty much everybody and is projected fairly high in the West. Texas A&M is loaded. New coach I know, but we play there. Tough place to win, especially for a team that has never played there. Go look at SC’s recruiting the last 2 years. So what if South Carolina in state recruiting is down (where did you come up with that?), they get recruits from elsewhere just like we have to. They are out recruiting us. Lol, Kentucky may produce some talent, maybe a very few that are GREAT, but not in meaningful numbers. Plus, hate to burst your bubble, but Stoops hasn’t gotten many KY kids the last couple of classes. My thoughts are Mizzou and UK are not markedly different in recruiting bases, tradition, etc. UT is in bad shape, but the $$ and fan support may bring them back (Jeremy Pruitt…who knew was), Vandy sucks I agree, but they have beaten UT and Florida more than we have in recent history. As for South Carolina, I think they are moving ahead of us. I think Stoops and Muschamp are interchangeable and they recruit better. Before anybody rags on last year’s SC team, look at how they finished the season, followed by beating Michigan.

      I do NOT expect 8 wins a year. I HOPE to see 8 wins every 3 or 4 years. Call me crazy, Call me a pessimist, call me a troll. Then go look at the results of the last 70 years of UK football results and think with your head, not your desperate heart.
      T expect

    • krautdog
      3:31 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Amen, Amen, Amen!

    • Mathlete
      2:53 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Averaging 7.5 wins per year is achievable with a long term perspective on it. There are going to be years where we win 5 though just because of randomness probability.

      SEC West – 0.5 wins

      Coin toss with Mississippi State, but unless we’re playing Ole Miss or Arkansas, we’re going to average about 0.5 wins against that division over the long term. Nothing from Alabama, Auburn, LSU, or Ole Miss.

      SEC East – 3.5 wins

      Take 3 or 4 most years from SC, Vandy, Mizzou, and Tennessee. Nothing from Georgia or Florida.

      Non-conference – 3.5 wins

      3 directional schools plus Louisville every other year.

    • DelrayCat
      3:53 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      No way we average 3.5 wins over the East. The past few seasons have been historically bad for the East and the conference has grown lopsided. This will not stay this way.
      We can MAYBE average 2 wins in the east per year and using your other sound logic…that is 5.5 wins….EXACTLY what Vegas has as our over-under.

    • CombatMedic_98
      5:02 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      This is how I function in life…

  4. JTHinton
    1:23 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    Over over over

  5. ClutchCargo
    1:26 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    Call me crazy, but 8 is do-able with this schedule. 7 for sure.

    • Kernel Sanders
      2:10 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Ok, you’re crazy.

    • J. Did
      5:46 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Kernel: proud of you for not using the ‘N’ word….like that uavel fan Porta John.

  6. BluKudzu
    1:31 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    Anything less than 9 will be disappointmenting. With the money spent and the hype that continues non stop year after year, now is the time for Stoops to get his team playing at best.

    • Mathlete
      1:37 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      I legitimately like the new word you created: “disappointmenting.” It’s definitely an internet-era word, but I like it

    • runningunnin.454
      2:09 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Somebody has been drinkmenting.

    • ClutchCargo
      3:28 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Excellent verbing on display!

    2:03 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    I see five (5) wins on that schedule barring another “gift” (e.g. Lamar’s fumble).

    • cats646
      4:54 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      You must see things all the time given the amount of drugs you must be on.

    2:04 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    FYI – We will not win AT Tennessee.

    • satcheluk
      6:19 am July 21, 2018 Permalink

      I’m not so sure you are right this year. But it all hinges in our QB play, so impossible to predict with any level of confidence either way.

  9. Kernel Sanders
    2:12 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    6 wins assuming at least average QB play, Benny stays healthy, and the defense on the whole stays healthy.

    2:45 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink


    Assuming we win all close games with SC,TN,MIZZ, and UL. 8-4 and we play The U in the Outback Bowl and we WIN beating Jaren Williams with his replacement at QB. Terry Touchdown!

    • ClutchCargo
      2:49 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Those are the same regular season results I envisioned when I made my comment, you just went a step further and did the work of listing them out.

  11. michaelb
    2:47 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    I see 6 w’s that’s not me calculating the bonus mild upset that will fall somewhere within that season … I feel like the bonus will happen somewhere along the way these guys have been working very hard and plus we have benny & respectable defense . All in all , a hopeful 7 wins is where I’m projecting. should be pretty accurate

  12. michaelb
    2:50 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    The tightens position needs to contribute heavily this season … if we get 7+ tds with the split ends we’re gonna be doing pretty decent . We live such sorrow filled lives as uk football fans lol . The make it hard to be uk FB fans . I really hope stoops cleans up his play calling – he’s usually good for a few bone head game affecting late calls

    • runningunnin.454
      3:26 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Not so much play calls; it’s more of a bad philosophy…try to kill the clock running the ball into the line three downs every possession to protect a single digit lead.
      I’m going to hope for a change in that philosophy, and hope for 7 wins.

    • michaelb
      11:25 am July 21, 2018 Permalink

      Rungun454, I stopped watching uk FB from bout 14-17 after I seen stoops neglect to take a 40 yard field goal to tie the game once . I forget what team it was because I was so mad and it was so long ago (2014 I think)

  13. UKFootballYall
    3:26 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    Everyone is going to be shocked in a good way this season! I loved SJ but fundamentally he was a below average QB that couldn’t deliver a 10 yard pass consistently. With either of our QB options this year the training wheels finally come off Gran’s offensive gameplan and we finish with one of the top 3 scoring offenses in the SEC. And oh yeah, we win way more than 5 or 6 games. The past doesn’t mean crap, Atlanta bound!

  14. DelrayCat
    3:40 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    A LOT of kool-aid drinking here…lol.

    • jimmer
      3:48 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      I hate to agree but………we don’t have a starting QB. Much less one with game experience. Much less one with SEC experience.

  15. johnelliott2
    3:45 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    This is a hard one. It’s tough to not drink the proverbial Kool-Aid each year–particularly in the Stoops Era. Like many in our fan base, I would love to see more success in our football program. Admittedly, I desperately want to look at the schedule and see 7 or 8 wins. Unfortunately, as others have pointed out, history is simply not on our side.

    While recruiting efforts over the past few years have drastically improved, within the context of the SEC, our recruiting classes still rank below many of our competitors. While the gap is closing, I just don’t think we will play in too many league games with an edge in talent. I would love nothing more than to be wrong, but I think winning 6 games in the toughest league in college football is an achievable goal.

    • CombatMedic_98
      5:08 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      Opinions fall short after the fact…wait a minute

    • TheZmanishere
      8:25 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      I believe we will have an better than average season this year.

    • johnelliott2
      10:57 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

      I hope so! Like I said in my original post, I want to be wrong about this. I am so ready for UK Football to break through the wall. From what we, as fans, are exposed to, the program seems to be trending in the right direction with recruiting, coaching, and facilities to make us relevant in the SEC. It’s time to extend the expectation of wins to beyond 6.

      But… as someone in another comment pointed out, we lack experience at the quarterback position and have some question marks on the offensive line with a younger core. If Benny is Benny, those issues could resolve themselves and this team could gain some momentum. However it goes, I am ready for the start of college football.

  16. CombatMedic_98
    5:06 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    It’s simple…we are draining the Liberal Swamp in DC…we are going to flood the Swamp in Gainesville this year…and all you nAysayin ‘historically correct” folks need to apologize now not after the season of success!

  17. doitagain
    7:32 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    I see 8-9 wins

  18. UKPROF
    7:49 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    Check back with me the 1st week of December and I’ll give you a fairly accurate prediction.

  19. natedaddy
    8:09 pm July 20, 2018 Permalink

    We win 6 at best. This is Kentucky football. CMU, Murray and MT, we win all 3 but are unimpressive and barely scratch out 2 of those. Of the SEC games, we’ll snatch defeat from the claws of victory in at least 2 games, but we will win one we weren’t supposed to. We’ll be blown out by Miss St, A&M and Georgia. Vandy is a 50/50 game. And we all need to be reminded that while all of Louisville is crumbling, they are still light years ahead of us in football.

  20. satcheluk
    6:13 am July 21, 2018 Permalink

    If QBs are weak we could win 5. If the QBs are decent we should win 6, maybe 7. If the QBs are much better than expected then I could see us winning 8. It all hinges on the arms. Very speculative until we see some live game action.

  21. bailey000
    12:53 pm July 21, 2018 Permalink

    I am way more optimistic than every other comment here

  22. KyZoneBlitz
    4:55 pm July 21, 2018 Permalink

    I would definitely take the over on UK, and would put some good money on it too. I see anywhere from 6-10 wins this year, and think 2 main factors will determine about 75%-90% of it. First is improved Dline play, but not just improved but by a pretty substantial sum. We have a ton of young hungry talented kids ready to be unleashed. I think it will start with Bohanna in the middle, kid is a sponge and extremely hungry to be great, iirc, last year’s game at uga, he was holding his own and winning plenty against their oline. I think Paschal with his hand in the dirt is a game changer, but isn’t necessarily needed. With shocking departure of Ware (still can’t believe it, but family comes before any and everything, still hurts) Paschal is the only player that can match Ware in talent AND some experience off the edge (we have younger kids who are probably as talented, maybe a little more without the experience, and maybe A couple with the experience but not the same speed OR talent that Ware had). Plus with the influx of extremely talented younger DTs/DEs, Jordan Wright, Chris Whittaker, Abule Abadi-Fitzgerald, still got Calvin Taylor, Phil Hoskins who has been raved about now that he’s a 100% healthy, Carter, Looney, plus Middleton back up at 300, (instead of 270 where he was getting bullied at the 3-tech against better comp last season) and then Bohanna, Bullyball McCall and Dubose (staff has stated they see a different player in Dubose, has finally clicked for him who iirc was rated as possibly highest ceiling in his class by some) at NT, which will decide success for us in the trenches. Success in the trenches improves our 2ndary almost single-handedly IMO. We have the size, speed, high-end talent AND experience across the board. If Dline makes the strides I think, 2ndary will benefit most from pressure on the QB. Run-D will also improve as LBs have plenty of open gaps to shoot from double teams being commanded. I think if you put all of that together, IF it does happen in a way similar to that, then we should have a nationally ranked defense.
    2nd factor will rely on elevated play of QB. Staff expects elevated play, as with elevation of talent, should equal said-play rising as well. I love SJ, dude was a warrior who played hurt most of his last season to the point that he could barely hit a wide open man the last 5-6 games because he needed surgery on BOTH shoulders, but I do believe both Hoak and Terry Wilson are a step up in talent. Yes, Hoak, even though more talented, didn’t have any experience in last year’s QB comp, while Johnson had a proven record with a massive win AT the dirtybirds pizza-dome, throwing for 300 and 3 TDs against a top-10 defense. New Year, Hoak looked at as slightly ahead in race because of time spent inside the playbook and scheme. He’s accurate, decent arm strength, shifty, great footwork in the pocket (atleast in the spring game) allowing more time for WRs to break open. Can run as well, not nearly as fast as Terry Wilson is but definitely faster than given credit for. Terry Wilson, Elite athlete, cannon, pretty accurate, does need improvement, has track-speed on the field in pads, won’t be able to fully show ability until live-action. Learning fast, high I.Q. both on field and off. Building great rapport with WRs/Oline, Hoak as well. Whoever wins out, if play matches work-ethic, and they are (along with elevated talent level) the type of leader and warrior that SJ was, then I think we’ve got a formidable contender for the east.

    I have us going 8-4/9-3. I think QB play does improve, Dline does improve, numbers show improvement as well. Have us losing to Georgia, Mizzou, and AT a&m maybe, still could win that aggie game, or the Mizzou game. I think we win against gamecocks. I think that win starts at SEC media days when we are picked 5th/6th/7th and they get put 2nd or 3rd, lol. I think we get uf, if not for Dan Mullen is call that game a blowout, but Mullen is a great coach and will have a good gameplan.

  23. KyZoneBlitz
    5:31 pm July 21, 2018 Permalink

    I’m sorry guys, but I don’t think it’s kool-aid drinking to envision 6-9 wins this year. Depth is there, on both sides of the ball, healthy. Oline with Drake at Center, which IMO if Drake started at Center from day-1 last year, we win that florida game and Benny probably has another 200 yards and 5-6 more TDs under his belt. Full off season working as the starting unit, building better chemistry when they weren’t too shabby 2nd half of last season. Also Conrad back and healthy, a senior Dorian Baker back and healthy, staff said he was on fire in last year’s fall camp. If the kid would take his cool off before he walked into the stadium, he’d have the potential to be one of the best WRs in the country. Also Lynn Bowden, full off season with the playbook, performance program, working with the QBs. The kid got to campus like 3 weeks before the start of the season while most freshman had been there atleast 2-3 months already. The kid is going to electrify this year, and I’m calling it now, Bowden WILL take one to the house on a kickoff, hell maybe 2 or 3. Reminds me of Cobb, just have to find the same chip to place on his shoulders, lol. Speaking of Chip on a shoulder, a Jr Benny Snell behind an extremely Large and talented DEEP Oline. I love Sihiem King, he’s fast, shifty, and has the heart of a lion, but…. He’s missing the body. The kid is just too small. He gives maximum effort and then some, but he is easily knocked off his pivot by defenders 7-8/10 times he carries the ball, but….. With what we saw from A.J. Rose in the spring game, I’m not too worried, I don’t think it’s a stretch to call Rose a better RB than King, he just has to bring it every day, and earn Grand trust with pass protection and following our great Oline. He has the speed, size, and moves to without a doubt be the better 2nd option behind Snell. Plus both Rodriguez and Smoke, both incoming freshman are similar to Snell in size and running style, except I think Both might be a little faster/leaner coming in than Snell was as a freshman. Either could come in and earn some clock. We’ve got ELITE players on both sides of the ball, including the best TE AND OLB/DE in next year’s draft according to Mel Kiper. So I understand history, and streaks, and everything else, but every other team has a QB come in, unknown, no experience and light it up, why not Kentucky, why not us?… it can happen, and only has to be average IMO and we win atleast another game, possibly 2 just from that. Go Cats.