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ESPN’s FPI predicts Kentucky Football to go 7-5 in 2021

The offseason love for Kentucky Football does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

Every year, ESPN releases the numbers behind its Football Power Index statistic, which predicts offensive, defensive, and special teams value and then puts it all into one tidy category. For the upcoming 2021 season, the World Wide Leader has high hopes for Mark Stoops, Terry Wilson, and company. According to the FPI, Kentucky is projected to post a 7-5 record once football comes back.

Here’s a full look at each game ESPN graded.

(ESPN)

According to the FPI, Kentucky is expected to beat Eastern Illinois (99.5 percent chance), Eastern Michigan (93.1), Kent State (92.2), Vanderbilt (89.4), Mississippi State (80.5), South Carolina, and Missouri (58.7). On the flip side, ESPN says Kentucky will lose to Auburn (only a 13.3 percent chance that UK wins), Florida (15.2), Georgia (17.4), Louisville (29.2), and Tennessee (49.0).

And for all you extreme optimists out there, Kentucky was given a 0.3 percent chance to win the entire conference. So you’re telling me there’s a chance!

Last season, ESPN’s FPI projected UK would go 5-7 on the year (they went 8-5, FYI). They did the same thing in 2018 before watching Kentucky win 10 games en route to a Citrus Bowl win. So, by this logic, Kentucky should expect to win about eight or nine regular-season games, right?

For the most part, I think Kentucky fans would find these projections fair outside of one noticeable misuse. Giving Louisville an over 70 percent chance to beat the ‘Cats feels way too high, and not just because of the lopsided results from the last two matchups.

But 8-4 is a more than attainable record for the upcoming team, let alone 7-5. What do you think?

Article written by Zack Geoghegan

Recruiting reporter for KSR. Follow me on Twitter: @ZGeogheganKSR

14 Comments for ESPN’s FPI predicts Kentucky Football to go 7-5 in 2021



  1. JT55
    9:02 pm July 7, 2020 Permalink

    Sounds about right to me. I’d say the ceiling is 8-4.



  2. FloridaCat88
    9:16 pm July 7, 2020 Permalink

    It’s the same prediction as the last 3 yrs. Why are they still sleeping on Stoops and co?



  3. GACAT
    9:27 pm July 7, 2020 Permalink

    I assume you mean the 2020 season, do you need an editor? I am predicting 9-3 losing to Auburn, Florida and Georgia. It’s time to beat Tennessee



  4. csnailnrun
    9:32 pm July 7, 2020 Permalink

    7-5 is BULLCHIT!
    Losing to loserville is complete ignorance on their part and UT, is a slap in the face how loose to that heap round the clock. Time to take out Florida again and drain that swamp! 🙂



    • ClutchCargo
      9:29 am July 8, 2020 Permalink

      Agree. We have had UF on the ropes and just let them come back several times in recent years. Next step is to develop a killer instinct.



  5. WKY Cat
    9:42 pm July 7, 2020 Permalink

    I thinks it’s right on except Louisville.



  6. bigblue98
    9:45 pm July 7, 2020 Permalink

    Keep underestimating – with our o-line leading the way people are gonna see. I agree with GACAT – 9-3 and New Years Day bowl again.



  7. Big Sexy
    10:20 pm July 7, 2020 Permalink

    Didn’t know Louisville was supposed to be that good. Auburn, Florida, and Georgia will almost certainly win.

    We’ve been Tennessee’s b!+¢h so I don’t expect a win. UK was the superior team the last two years and lost.



  8. Jon
    10:24 pm July 7, 2020 Permalink

    Wait, that’s not 2021’s schedule.

    Another one of Matt’s passive-aggressive, white, liberal.

    “Wear a mask to save humanity.”



  9. CahillsCrossingNT
    4:51 am July 8, 2020 Permalink

    At best there will only be an abbreviated season. Another national lockdown is inevitable.



  10. ScoggDog
    7:15 am July 8, 2020 Permalink

    IF they play – big if, I’m putting my money on they don’t – there is no way that @Lousiville is the fourth toughest game on their schedule. Tougher than @Tennessee ? No way.

    I’d like to see the Vegas line on practice getting shut down by the end of July.



  11. PensacolaCat
    9:22 am July 8, 2020 Permalink

    We could be REALLY good and still go 8-4. We’ll play well in the Florida and TN and still lose late as always. Georgia is a guaranteed loss and winning at Auburn will be tough.



  12. neat1ky
    10:22 am July 8, 2020 Permalink

    Amazing Louisville plays in a very easy conf and they post a winning season and magically after one season they are the greatest with 2 avg recruiting seasons and we have gone to 4 straight bowls and having great recruiting seasons and we have have our winning QB back with top rated OL and DL and back up players at many positions and UL is suppose to beat us is laughable, I see 8-4 reasonable and could get better



  13. bbn606
    11:04 am July 8, 2020 Permalink

    I understand why they pick us to lose at Tennessee as we have not given anyone a reason to pick us in that game but I’m puzzled that anyone thinks Louisville is better than us. I think we beat Auburn as our line on both sides of the ball is superior to theirs and we really should be going for our fourth victory in a row against Florida but we’re not and that is why they are Florida and we are U.K. This team should be a 9-3 team at worse.