Statistics are a valuable tool for measuring and predicting just about anything, from elections to the stock market. But when it comes to sports, they definitely don’t tell the whole story. If they did, ESPN’s “best predictor of a team’s performance” would have you believe that UK football will only muster a disheartening 4 wins this season.
247Sports broke down Kentucky’s schedule game by game using the Worldwide Leader’s Football Power Index, AKA FPI, and found that the Cats were only favored to win against Central Michigan, Murray State, Vanderbilt, and Middle Tennessee. The model overall predicts that UK will pick up a fifth win somewhere, but since the odds aren’t in their favor in any other game, it won’t get specific, leaving bright minds like us to try and figure out where that upset, and hopefully a few more, will come from.
According to ESPN, “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.” Here’s the link to the full ranking if you’d like to parse through the data yourself.
Could UK shock Dan Mullen in his first year at the Swamp? Or get a win in Neyland Stadium for the first time in over 30 years? Only time will tell, but don’t let the statistics temper your hopefulness, BBN.
In the words of the wise and incomparable Han Solo…
“Never tell me the odds.”