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ESPN’s FPI Metric Doesn’t Bode Well for UK Football

Statistics are a valuable tool for measuring and predicting just about anything, from elections to the stock market. But when it comes to sports, they definitely don’t tell the whole story. If they did, ESPN’s “best predictor of a team’s performance” would have you believe that UK football will only muster a disheartening 4 wins this season.

247Sports broke down Kentucky’s schedule game by game using the Worldwide Leader’s Football Power Index, AKA FPI, and found that the Cats were only favored to win against Central Michigan, Murray State, Vanderbilt, and Middle Tennessee. The model overall predicts that UK will pick up a fifth win somewhere, but since the odds aren’t in their favor in any other game, it won’t get specific, leaving bright minds like us to try and figure out where that upset, and hopefully a few more, will come from.

According to ESPN, “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.” Here’s the link to the full ranking if you’d like to parse through the data yourself.

Could UK shock Dan Mullen in his first year at the Swamp? Or get a win in Neyland Stadium for the first time in over 30 years? Only time will tell, but don’t let the statistics temper your hopefulness, BBN.

In the words of the wise and incomparable Han Solo…

“Never tell me the odds.”

@JayWinkKSR

Article written by Jay Winkler

Avid fan of UK Athletics, WWE, and chicken wings. Preferably at the same time.

24 Comments for ESPN’s FPI Metric Doesn’t Bode Well for UK Football



  1. Tango98
    11:10 am August 19, 2018 Permalink

    ESPN also has UK hoops at #22 preseason in their BPI, so i wouldn’t put too much stock in this (if any).



  2. DelrayCat
    11:11 am August 19, 2018 Permalink

    But 4 wins might bode really well for Coach Stoops.
    Why? Simple…he gets fired. UK must pay a huge multi-million dollar buy-out.
    He the retires to Florida early to spend his days fishin’ on his yacht and livin’ in a fat multi-million dollar pad.



  3. Kat 308
    11:23 am August 19, 2018 Permalink

    I thought ESPN only covered politics



    • syrin23
      1:03 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

      lol, beautiful. Well done



  4. njCat
    11:26 am August 19, 2018 Permalink

    What did they say last year?



  5. MegatonRange
    12:03 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    Another hour another negative KSR football post….what’s new?



    • huck
      12:54 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

      Well help us out sunshine. I will get us started: Coach is doing great, he got 11 players on the field – most of the time last year. Woo Hoo



    • chardun20
      2:07 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

      I agree, other than Nick sometimes, it seems like KSR wants UK ? to be bad.



  6. kjd
    12:28 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    I don’t think this is really surprising. I would be surprised if any statistical based predictors would have us winning more than five. That’s not being negative, just speaking statistically.
    Come September 1, let’s see if our team can the stats as well as our opponents.
    Go Big Blue!



  7. rlburd2
    12:35 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    Hillary won, right?



  8. Humdittydiddycatsbyfiddy
    12:35 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    I understand facts are optional but UK Football hasn’t won AT



  9. Humdittydiddycatsbyfiddy
    12:35 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    Tennessee since 1976



    • CPACAT
      12:49 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

      You may want to check your facts. UK defeated UT on Nov. 24, 1984; 17-12.



    • Humdittydiddycatsbyfiddy
      12:56 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

      Ah yes, I think it was at Florida I was confusing it with….



    • Humdittydiddycatsbyfiddy
      12:57 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

      In 1979



  10. syrin23
    1:04 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    This is only meaningful if it has been shown to be accurate in the past.



  11. krautdog
    1:54 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    Looks about right on!



  12. UKinIN
    2:28 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    Statistic tell what happened. Not what will happen.



  13. az1006
    4:54 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    Kentucky football will never get respect until they go out and earn it, and do it consistently. It’s easy to look at history and assume it will be repeated, and, as Kentucky football fans, we probably know that better than anyone. But, we haven’t had a football team this talented in a long time, but even more, we haven’t had a team this deep. Depth has always been the biggest issue, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out this season. Honestly, I think it’s more likely we win 8 games than 4 or 5. Think we end up at 7-5.



  14. Catlogic15
    5:49 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    It sucks we have 18 starters back and still zero respect. I blame quarterback development.



  15. Cincy Cayt
    8:36 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    ESPN’s 538 also gave Trump only about 1/3 chance to win and we all know what happened there. Not faulting them, but just saying there’s a chance – a solid chance.



  16. BluKudzu
    9:03 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    Unbelievable that we have given a contract of such value to ensure we have mediocrity or less.



  17. CombatMedic_98
    10:21 pm August 19, 2018 Permalink

    Liberalism at its best