ESPN still isn’t all on Kentucky Football, but they’re getting there.
The worldwide leader recently updated its Football Power Index, a predictive rating system they designed, and with it came the win probabilities for the upcoming Kentucky Football schedule. ESPN predicts that the ‘Cats will post a 5-5 record during the 10-game, conference-only 2020 season.
Here’s a look at the matchups along with Kentucky’s win probability for each game.
According to the FPI, Kentucky will secure wins over Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt (duh), and South Carolina. The losses are projected to come at the hands of Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. The fourth game of the season against the Volunteers has Kentucky with a 45.3 percent chance to win and that could arguably be the most important game on the schedule. Tennessee is expected to make a significant improvement from last season and they have an obvious history of beating UK, but the ‘Cats are in line for a historic year. This matchup feels like the only one where the percentages should be flipped with Kentucky as the favorite.
ESPN is basically guaranteeing a win over Vandy (although even a 90 percent chance feels too low) and the outing against Mississippi State shouldn’t be much different. From a pure talent standpoint, the ‘Cats should be able to escape the Ole Miss, Missouri, and South Carolina games without much issue. What’s really going to swing the season is the potential for an upset (or maybe two) against a team such as Florida or Auburn.
Bovado recently released its win total odds, setting Kentucky’s 2020 win total at 4.5 games and lining up closely with what the FPI is predicting. Five wins feel the consensual minimum number of victories across fans of the Big Blue Nation. What do you think about the FPI projections?