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ESPN’s Football Power Index updates Kentucky’s win probabilities for 2020 schedule

ESPN still isn’t all on Kentucky Football, but they’re getting there.

The worldwide leader recently updated its Football Power Index, a predictive rating system they designed, and with it came the win probabilities for the upcoming Kentucky Football schedule. ESPN predicts that the ‘Cats will post a 5-5 record during the 10-game, conference-only 2020 season.

Here’s a look at the matchups along with Kentucky’s win probability for each game.


According to the FPI, Kentucky will secure wins over Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt (duh), and South Carolina. The losses are projected to come at the hands of Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. The fourth game of the season against the Volunteers has Kentucky with a 45.3 percent chance to win and that could arguably be the most important game on the schedule. Tennessee is expected to make a significant improvement from last season and they have an obvious history of beating UK, but the ‘Cats are in line for a historic year. This matchup feels like the only one where the percentages should be flipped with Kentucky as the favorite.

ESPN is basically guaranteeing a win over Vandy (although even a 90 percent chance feels too low) and the outing against Mississippi State shouldn’t be much different. From a pure talent standpoint, the ‘Cats should be able to escape the Ole Miss, Missouri, and South Carolina games without much issue. What’s really going to swing the season is the potential for an upset (or maybe two) against a team such as Florida or Auburn.

Bovado recently released its win total odds, setting Kentucky’s 2020 win total at 4.5 games and lining up closely with what the FPI is predicting. Five wins feel the consensual minimum number of victories across fans of the Big Blue Nation. What do you think about the FPI projections?

Article written by Zack Geoghegan

Recruiting reporter for KSR. Follow me on Twitter: @ZGeogheganKSR

12 Comments for ESPN’s Football Power Index updates Kentucky’s win probabilities for 2020 schedule

  1. BigBluSoTru
    8:03 pm August 21, 2020 Permalink

    i dont understand thinking we going to beat florida we win 1 game in what 31 years and a couple of close ones and we think we are better nope.

  2. oldfanallin
    8:16 pm August 21, 2020 Permalink

    Also we will be ranked behind TN until we beat them. You are the better team when you win.

  3. PensacolaCat
    8:43 pm August 21, 2020 Permalink

    Agreed, we SHOULD never be ranked ahead of UF and UT…NEVER

  4. blueblue
    9:47 pm August 21, 2020 Permalink

    I find it interesting that ESPN is giving us more of a chance to upset Georgia than it is for us to upset Auburn or Florida. I’m guessing that it’s because we got Georgia at home and the other two on the road. Somebody, please tell me…how much of an impact is home field really going to have this season? I doubt any school will have any more than 20% capacity. Is that really going to impact very many games? I just don’t see home field being a serious advantage this season. Sadly, the same thing can probably be said for basketball season as well.

    • east-ky-boy
      11:43 pm August 21, 2020 Permalink

      It’s basically gonna be an even playing field as far as home field advantage. I agree

    • T-Town Cat
      12:57 am August 22, 2020 Permalink

      The home field impact is just being in your own room and having your regular daily routine versus running the gauntlet of travel and leaving and entering two “bubbles”.

    • Thetruthshallsetbennyfree
      4:46 am August 22, 2020 Permalink

      SEC requires the home team to also stay in a hotel for the last day. Don’t know if that happens now though. Also home field advantage is crowd noise drowning out you play calling.

  5. runningunnin.454
    10:55 pm August 21, 2020 Permalink

    Alabama…so there’s a chance?

  6. east-ky-boy
    11:44 pm August 21, 2020 Permalink

    I hope our 20% or whatever we decide isn’t the rich fans that leave at halftime. Give me the rednecks like me in the nosebleeds. 20% of us will make up for most of the rest lol

  7. bbn606
    5:17 am August 22, 2020 Permalink

    Those odds appear to be pretty accurate but I do believe that we will beat Auburn thanks to the strength of both of the O line and D line.

  8. Davey McCrockett
    8:11 am August 22, 2020 Permalink


  9. KyZoneBlitz
    12:38 am August 23, 2020 Permalink

    I get the bandwagoning that espn does, but 13% @Auburn??!?… That’s off, by alot. It shouldnt be flipped but atleast 35%-40%, Vols should be 50%, Uga game should be around 40%, I dont get how these totals are given. I guess it’s based all on recruiting, and since each team were projected to lose to brings in a ton of 4/5-star players, they will automatically beat us like coaching and development doesnt matter at all…. ok, my goodness I cant wait for the season to start to put these ignorant blind people in their place when we come out and go 8-2….