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ESPN FPI projections for each game on Kentucky’s schedule

ESPN’s Football Power Index game-by-game projections are out, and, well, they don’t look great for Kentucky. Here’s the percentage chance Kentucky has to win each of the games on the schedule, according to the FPI:

Sat, Aug 31 vs Toledo 82.0% -3.4 (77)
Sat, Sept 7 vs Eastern Michigan 92.4% -11.5 (110)
Sat, Sept 14 vs Florida 26.8% 17.6 (8)
Sat, Sept 21 at Mississippi State 22.2% 13.7 (16)
Sat, Sept 28 at South Carolina 25.5% 12.3 (18)
Sat, Oct 12 vs Arkansas 74.6% 0.5 (60)
Sat, Oct 19 at Georgia 9.3% 22.3 (3)
Sat, Oct 26 vs Missouri 41.3% 12.1 (19)
Sat, Nov 9 vs Tennessee 38.6% 14.0 (15)
Sat, Nov 16 at Vanderbilt 49.4% 3.8 (50)
Sat, Nov 23 vs UT Martin 98.1%
Sat, Nov 30 vs Louisville 76.8% -1.0 (66)

What are we to make of these numbers? Earlier today, Adam Luckett did a great job explaining why the analytics don’t tend to favor Kentucky:

Understanding Kentucky’s current place in college football analytics

…but personally, I prefer Lynn Bowden’s response:


Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

10 Comments for ESPN FPI projections for each game on Kentucky’s schedule

  1. Cokely53
    3:17 pm July 17, 2019 Permalink

    The hate is real. Not even favored against Vandy. Ouch.

  2. meeksfor3
    3:18 pm July 17, 2019 Permalink

    Respect is earned not given. With our past history it will take a while to earn that respect just like it has taken a while for UT to lose theirs.

    • UKGrad79
      7:07 pm July 17, 2019 Permalink

      And South Carolina and Vandy has had a great football history?????

  3. kentuckybackupplayer
    3:20 pm July 17, 2019 Permalink

    This reminds me of the time 538 gave hillary a 95% chance of being president.

  4. eyebleedblue
    3:40 pm July 17, 2019 Permalink


  5. gasman01
    4:38 pm July 17, 2019 Permalink

    I think we beat Vandy, Missouri, and Tn.

  6. krautdog
    6:17 pm July 17, 2019 Permalink

    Six wins & a “Toilet Bowl” bid”!

  7. UKGrad79
    7:06 pm July 17, 2019 Permalink

    What is this deal with South Carolina? We beat them every year and every year they are above us in preseason polls! Get over USC and their crappy coach of theirs!!