Everyone comes into a new football season believing something that is outside the box. Something that others smirk at and laugh at and this is ridiculous. But you’ve done the research and thought this through and you just know it is going to happen. Maybe UK wins a game it isn’t supposed to. Or you think Kentucky will have 11 guys on the field for every play. Whatever it is, everybody has a big, bold prediction for the season. So what is mine for this year?
Kentucky will have more passing touchdowns than rushing touchdowns this season
First, let’s have some perspective. Here are the breakdowns of passing to rushing touchdowns in the Stoops era:
2013: 14 to 16
2014: 14 to 21
2015: 10 to 22
2016: 17 to 30
2017: 10 to 27
2018: 14 to 27
In Stoops 6 years, they have passed for 79 touchdowns and rushed for 143 touchdowns. Almost double the rushing touchdowns. So why in the world would I think they would pass for more TD’s this year? Personnel.
There is no doubt that Terry Wilson will be asked to pass more this season. Just how much is the question but he’s going to have to throw more. So just by shear volume of passes, I think Wilson will throw more TD’s this year. In addition, I think we will find Lynn Bowden will have the ball in his hands more this season as well. And I think that will translate to more passing TD’s that are Bowden creating more than Wilson. And finally, not only is Benny Snell no longer on the team but the KIND of running back he was is important. When UK got inside the 10 yard line, it was simply giving Benny the ball three times and hope for the best. A bruising running back. AJ Rose is a talented back but more of a shifty back. Which means when Kentucky gets the ball in the redzone, I think Wilson will be throwing more.
Don’t get me wrong, this won’t be the Air Raid. But I think all of reasons above translate to a much more balanced division of the touchdowns this year. I even think we could crack 20 passing touchdowns for the first time in the Stoops era this year. And that will lead to, for the first time in the Stoops era, more passing touchdowns than rushing touchdowns. My big, bold prediction for 2019.