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BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: The 2nd Year Jump for Coaches

There is a definite split amongst UK fans and fans of football in the state on what the expectations should be for Kentucky this season.  Some fans are calling for another year of patience and looking forward to 2015.  I generally fall in the camp that expects a 2-3 win jump this year into the 4-8 or 5-7 area.  And there are strong arguments for both sides.  But my biggest point about thinking the Cats will get to 5 wins this year is the simple fact that a 2nd year of any coaches tenure at a school usually brings an improvement.  The simple fact the players are much more comfortable with the coaching staff and the system in place makes it a smoother entry into the season.  But does my belief in 2nd year head coaches hold water?  Below are each of the 14 SEC schools with the coaches they have hired since 1990.  And next to each coach is the increase or decrease in wins from their first season to their second.  Those in red had a decrease.

Gene Stallings: +4, Mike Dubose: +3, Dennis Franchione: +3, Mike Shula: +2, Nick Saban: +5

Jack Crowe: +3, Danny Ford: -2, Houston Nutt: -1, Bobby Petrino: +3

Terry Bowden: -2, Tommy Tuberville: +4, Gene Chizik: +6

Steve Spurrier: +1, Ron Zook: Even, Urban Meyer: +4, Will Muschamp: +4

Jim Donnan: +5, Mark Richt: +5

Bill Curry: +1, Hal Mumme: +2, Guy Morris: +5, Rich Brooks: -2, Joker Phillips: -1

Curley Hallman: -3, Gerry DiNardo: +3, Nick Saban: +2, Les Miles: Even

Mississippi State
Jackie Sherrill: Even, Sylvester Croom: Even, Dan Mullen: +4

Larry Smith: Even, Gary Pinkel: +1

Ole Miss
Tommy Tuberville: -1, David Cutcliffe: -1, Ed Orgeron: +1, Houston Nutt: Even, Hugh Freeze: +1

South Carolina
Brad Scott: -2, Lou Holtz: +8, Steve Spurrier: +1

Phil Fulmer: +1, Derek Dooley: -1

Texas A&M 
Dennis Franchione: +3, Mike Sherman: +2, Kevin Sumlin: -2

Gerry Dinardo: -1, Rod Dowhower: Even, Woody Widenhofer: -1, Bobby Johnson: Even, James Franklin: +3

All total, that is 50 head coaches.  Of those 50, 37 head coaches had an even or increase in wins in their 2nd season.  But even more important, for those 37 coaches, their average wins jumped  up 2.4 wins from season to season.  If that holds true for Mark Stoops this year, we are looking at a 4 or 5 win season this year.  And that is how I get to my conclusion.  Now, to be fair, there are 13 coaches who dropped in wins from their 1st to 2nd season.  But considering that UK won only 2 games this year, I find it hard to believe that Kentucky is going to drop in wins this year.

So do you see a 2nd year bump for Mark Stoops?

Article written by Bryan the Intern

20 Comments for BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: The 2nd Year Jump for Coaches

    12:11 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    Very good post. I hope its the 2 and above. Thanks for this post.

  2. 2-10 0-8
    12:12 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    It hasn’t made one bit of difference. 0-8 in SEC play under Joker, 0-8 in SEC play under Stoops.
    And a loss to WKU …..

    • Jarvis Redwine
      12:25 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

      2-10 0-8 – Obviously, reading comprehension is not your strong suit. Thank you for visiting KENTUCKY SPORTS RADIO, nonetheless!

    • For real
      2:30 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

      ^^^^ 2.2 million a year for a coach to pick up two wins against the scheduled cup cakes….made possible by the intelligent fanbase of UK!

    • Wishing
      2:38 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

      Trolls are just hoping and praying and wishing that their little delusional “no better than before” diatribe will hold true.

      Looking forward to radio silence from them in a few weeks. RIP to Matt Jones’ revenue when this team gets going. The trolls will be huddling somewhere else, cursing.

  3. Chris
    12:34 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    Such a worthless post.

    He had 2 wins last year… you think he is going to have less than 2 when we have 3 cupcakes on the schedule?

  4. NL
    12:37 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    Interesting piece…I think Miss State, Ole Miss, and Vandy are most comparable to our current situation. The most recent coaches in those programs won 4, 3, and 1 more games there second year. If you average that out, it comes to 2.67.

    I think 4 is a fairly safe bet in terms of wins. I hope we can pull of an unexpected upset to get the total to 5. We’ll see

    • Michael
      7:29 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

      We’d need to pull off an unexpected upset just to get to 4 wins.

  5. gocats35
    12:55 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    I think that with the influx of talent coming in 4 wins is reasonable. Evidenced by the fact that there is definite talent on the roster ie. Kemp, Timmons, Heard, etc. Point being, Stoops is bringing in some guys who are actual football players. I think a lot of the reason for 2-10 last year was the shear fact that Joker left the stable of playmakers very depleted especially when some of the most talented guys he had ie Demarcus Sweat, had to leave due to outside reasons. Basically, if stoops continues to bring in good ballplayers we when games that’s as simple as it is. Calipari would not be nearly as successful without the talent that he recruits year in/out. The same holds true for Football except the competition in the SEC is much tougher for Stoops. If he continues to recruit at a high level, and I think he will, the improvement has to eventually translate to the field. I don’t expect a bowl game this year, but I would be shocked if they don’t squeeze out six wins next year when this crop of talent matures even more.

  6. Sharon
    1:04 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    Stoops needs to show that he has the goods to be a successful head coach in the SEC. He hasn’t done that yet. Personally, I like Stoops and hope that defensive coordinator is not his ceiling and he becomes a good head coach. He needs to show us something this year.

  7. btowncatfan
    1:05 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    BTI, sucks as bad at noon as he does at 9:00 a.m.

    • lexfan
      3:01 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

      I wish you could “like” comments on KSR

  8. Stoll Field Cats
    1:06 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    You have to look at overall shape of UK football it hit rock bottom in 2012. Vandys (new coach) this year has about all the offense back and around 20 RS freshmen to shore up the defense. Coach Stoops started with no depth or experience to win in the SEC. Coach Stoops is starting to bring in the players now they need experience.

    • CardFan502
      1:33 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

      Nuh uh.

  9. Luther
    2:26 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    4 wins max…

  10. So
    3:44 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    How many years did Guy Morris coach at UK?

  11. Blake
    3:47 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    Solid post BTI.

    I’d like to see it broken down further into coaches were hired off of a sub 4 win season. It’s hard to capture how tall of a task Stoops was given.

  12. Georgia Blue
    7:58 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    If Stoops bringing in the Talent. Then why can’t they beat out Jokers recruits . I still see Jokers recruits starting in front of Stoops recruits. So if Jokers recruits aren’t SEC Football Players . Then why are they still starting on this team.

  13. Charlie
    9:17 pm August 28, 2014 Permalink

    Uhhh..Brother Bill Curry went from 4-7 to 3-8.