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BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: Anatomy of an Upset

I don’t think it’s any secret that if Kentucky can beat Florida on Saturday it will be considered an upset.  You’re going to be hard-pressed to find any “expert” picking the Cats.  But with Florida using their backup QB, an improved Kentucky defense, and a 26-streak that needs to end, some fans have wrapped their minds around the idea that Kentucky could pull off the upset.  But just what will it take for UK to get the job done on Saturday?  Well, if history tells us anything, there are only 2 things that the Cats HAVE to do to win over the Gators.  Below you find the last 13 instances in college football where an unranked team beat a Top 20 opponent.  And below each game I have listed the 2 major categories

2013: Miami 21, #12 Florida 16
3rd Down: Florida: 40%
1st quarter: Miami 14, Florida 6

2013: BYU 40, #15 Texas 21
3rd Down: Texas: 29%
1st quarter: BYU 10, Texas 7

2013: Washington 38, #19 Boise St. 6
3rd Down: Boise St: 42%
1st quarter: Washington 7, Boise St 0

2012: TCU 20, #16 Texas 13
3rd Down: Texas: 27%
1st quarter: TCU 7, Texas 3

2012: UCONN 23, #20 Louisville 20
3rd Down: Louisville: 33%
1st quarter: UCONN 3, Louisville 0

2012: Pittsburgh 27, #18 Rutgers 6
3rd Down: Rutgers: 31%
1st quarter: Pitt 0, Rutgers 0 (Pitt scored 2 plays into 2nd quarter)

2012: Baylor 52, #1 Kansas St. 24
3rd Down: Kansas St: 42%
1st quarter: Baylor 14, Kansas St 7

2012: San Diego St 21, #19 Boise St 19
3rd Down: Boise St: 33%
1st quarter: San Diego St 7, Boise St 6

2012: Arizona 39, #9 USC 36
3rd Down: USC: 45%
1st quarter: Arizona 10, USC 0

2012: Kent State 35, #15 Rutgers 23
3rd Down: Rutgers: 42%
1st quarter: Kent St 7, Rutgers 3

2012: Washington 20, #7 Oregon St 17
3rd Down: Oregon St: 35%
1st quarter: Washington 3, Oregon St 0

2012: Texas Tech 49, #5 West Virginia 14
3rd Down: West Virginia: 42%
1st quarter: Texas Tech 14, West Virginia 7

2012: Iowa St 37, #15 TCU 23
3rd Down: TCU: 33%
1st quarter: Iowa St 16, TCU 7

So, my conclusion for how Kentucky can beat Florida on Saturday boils down to accomplishing 2 things:

1. MUST KEEP FLORIDA UNDER 45% ON 3RD DOWN

-This not only is a confidence booster for an inconsistent defense, but a confidence crusher for a Gator offense with a new QB and it’s own problems.  Kentucky has been terrible for enternity on getting an opposition’s offense off the field, or so it seems.  They can’t let Florida put together 10 and 12 play drives.  When given the chance to get off the field on 3rd and long, the Cats defense must hold strong.

2. MUST WIN THE 1ST QUARTER

-This is especially big because if UK can hold the lead after 1 quarter, the doubt starts to creep in the minds of Florida whether they can be upset.  Plus, at that point, UK will have realized they can play with Florida.  In 12 of the 13 games above, the unranked team LED after 1 quarter.  In the 13th game, Pitt was tied after a quarter and scored 2 plays into the 2nd quarter.  Kentucky must hit Florida in the mouth early.  It is not about hanging around early in the game.  It’s about taking control.  If Kentucky doesn’t do that, they won’t win.

Article written by Bryan the Intern

23 Comments for BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: Anatomy of an Upset



  1. barn
    9:05 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    wish. but not this year. maybe next



  2. Fanman
    9:10 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    The biggest key in the game Saturday is turnovers. UK must turn Florida over at least 3 times and not turn it over like they did against Louisville to have a shot. Don’t give it away!!



  3. Piedma Schwartz
    9:14 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Yes, but if you look at all the teams that got upset, every single one of them (except Texas) is a crappy overrated team.



  4. SeaCat
    9:23 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Cute idea BTI, but you need 20 events before
    you can start to talk about statistical relevance.
    13 is not quite enough.
    Unfortunately the tale of the tape will be Florida’s defense.



  5. UK All Day
    9:28 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    UK must control the turnover battle. UK beat UL but we beat ourselves turning the ball over 3 times in the red zone. 5 trips to the red zone UK had 2 FG’s and 3 TO”s against UL, they have to stop that.

    UK will win this game if they don’t turn the ball over.



  6. Bobbysueflay
    9:38 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Your on some hardcore drugs if you think our offense is going to drive against floridas d.



  7. SHHHH!!!!
    9:38 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Why is everyone advertising that we’re trying for an upset this weekend? Haven’t you people heard of the element of surprise?! If we don’t tell them we’re going to try to win, maybe we can sneak one by them!



  8. Al/in/Indy
    9:39 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Be ahead in the first quarter? Actually BTI, I rather be ahead in the fourth with the time being 00.00 left on the clock.



  9. Real UK Fan
    9:44 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    It would be great to win this game but Florida’s defense is very good and UK’s offense is nearly non-existent. It will take a true miracle for UK to win this game. Actually, it may take a miracle to just be competitive.



  10. Bottom Line
    9:50 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    UK is the anal cavity of college football. They stand no shot in this game. You lost to WKU for crying out loud. No way the special Stoops brother pulls the upset.



  11. Al Becker
    9:55 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    UK has to do 4 things to give themselves even an outside chance at a win:

    1. Stop the run
    2.Eliminate unforced mistakes.
    3. Stop the run
    4. Stop the run.



  12. Common Sense
    10:14 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    We have won the first quarter the last two games. I think it is more important that we score in the 3rd quarter, which we have failed to do all season. And stop the run.



  13. Come on
    10:18 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Does any major outlet have Florida on an upset alert?



  14. RICK
    10:33 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Will we ever stop hearing if Ky wins it will be a upset and hear this should be a good game.



  15. Lisa from Weird Science
    10:34 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    How would all of you like to know that Matt’s only sexual outlet is tossing off to magazines in the bathroom?



  16. Better than Usual
    10:55 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    I usually hate your posts but I agree with this one. I believe if Kentucky is ahead at the end of the first quarter they will have a great chance to win. We need a few turnovers from Florida, as well, and a fairly low scoring game. I don’t see Kentucky scoring more than 21 points against Florida (if that). So, we need an amazing defensive performance (hold them to less than 21 points) coupled with a few turnovers by Florida. Unlikely, but possible. Go Cats.



  17. Rich
    11:01 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    I have no clue why anyone would think UK has a legitimate shot at an upset. Florida still has WAY MORE TALENT. I hope they win, but visions of an upset dancing in your heads is only going to make it worse if we lose. Also, a win would boost UL’s BCS resume and I don’t want that to happen either. So I am content with the way I started the season: Look for improvement and enjoy the ride.



  18. RealCatsFan
    11:28 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Would love to see an upset on Saturday, but I just don’t think we have the horses yet. Next year we play at the swamp, so once again the upset will be unlikely. However, the year after, when the game swings back into Commonwealth, Stoops has his system in place, the new recruits are here with some experience, and Barker has some playing time under his belt, I think we may actually start to put a scare into some teams like Florida. Especially if Muschamp continues to take them in the direction they are currently on – that is, if they don’t can him and grab up Charlie Strong. Even then, I think the Cats will have a great shot. But not this year.



  19. RealCatsFan
    11:32 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    I know there are plenty of bird trolls on here reading this, so i will ask this question: If you can manage to remove your hater instincts, and take an objective look at things, would you like to see UK beat UF to give UofL’s strength of schedule a boost, even with the realization that a loss like that could get the snowball rolling in Gainesville to run Muschamp out of town and come after Charlie Strong?



  20. football school
    11:56 am September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Cats by 4. Florida sucks.



  21. Give me a racoon, please.
    12:36 pm September 24, 2013 Permalink

    “If Kentucky doesn’t do that, they won’t win.” So tired of this absolutist BS. It really creeps in from a generation raised on ESPN which is the worst about it. Are you actually saying Kentucky CANNOT win this game if they are down 7-6 at the end of the first quarter, but they are 1 and G at the FU 1 yard-line? I agree it is important, but can somebody please write in a style that doesn’t sound like you are just as fit to be a used car salesman telling me my job is my credit?



  22. Biglaw Dawgin'
    2:05 pm September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Change #2 to “Must win the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Quarter” and that’s how we can pull it off.



  23. Kige Ramsey
    2:08 pm September 24, 2013 Permalink

    Keep UF under 45% on 3rd Downs? Win the 1st Q? What are you talking about? The best way to upset Florida is to score more points than them.