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Bovada sets UK Football’s over/under win total at 3.5

Darrell Bird |

Darrell Bird |

Darrell Bird |

With little over a month until college football season kicks off, sportsbook Bovada has released their over/under win totals for the season. The oddsmakers put Kentucky’s win total at 3.5, the lowest in the SEC:

  • Alabama: 10.5
  • Georgia: 9.5
  • South Carolina: 9.5
  • Auburn: 9
  • LSU: 9
  • Florida: 7.5
  • Mississippi State: 7.5
  • Missouri: 7.5
  • Ole Miss: 7.5
  • Texas A&M: 7
  • Vanderbilt: 6
  • Tennessee: 5.5
  • Arkansas: 4.5
  • Kentucky: 3.5

Years of Kentucky football fandom have taught me to be a realist, but a recent surge of optimism has me thinking over is a pretty good bet. Let’s go through the schedule (with color coding!):

8/30 – UT Martin: Easy win

9/6: Ohio – Easy win

9/13 – at Florida: Toss-up considering Florida’s problems, but given UK’s history against Florida, not likely, especially in the Swamp

9/27 – Vanderbilt: Best chance for an SEC win

10/4 – South Carolina: Very likely loss

10/11 – Louisiana-Monroe: Easy win

10/18 – at LSU: LOL, I wish. Death Valley worth the road trip though

10/25 – Mississippi State: Many fans think UK has a good shot at here, but I’m not so sure. Mississippi State is returning most of their team and will be better than most realize. However, we’ve always been competitive with them, and this one’s at Commonwealth. I’ll call it a likely loss, but I love to be proved wrong.

11/1 – at Missouri: Likely loss

11/8 – Georgia: Very likely loss

11/15 – at Tennessee: Likely loss

11/29: at Louisville: Likely loss—ah hell, toss-up. Yes, the game is at Louisville, but coming off a bye week, the Cats have a decent shot, especially if they’re not banged up too badly.

So there are my predictions. I’m going with 4 wins, with potential for six if the ball bounces UK’s way a few times.



Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

39 Comments for Bovada sets UK Football’s over/under win total at 3.5

  1. Michael F. Jox
    7:18 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    What’s the difference between a probable loss and a likely loss?

    • Mrs. Tyler Thompson
      7:29 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

      I meant probable to be greater than likely, but I see your point. Changed it to “very likely.”

  2. MRob
    7:24 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    8/30 – UT Martin: W

    9/6: Ohio – W

    9/13 — at Florida: L

    9/27 — Vanderbilt: W

    10/4 – South Carolina: L

    10/11 – Louisiana-Monroe: W

    10/18 – at LSU: L

    10/25 – Mississippi State: L

    11/1 — at Missouri: L

    11/8 — Georgia: L

    11/15 – at Tennessee: W

    11/29: at Louisville: W

    Big finish 6-6

    • Wait
      12:12 pm July 24, 2014 Permalink

      If our QB is good then were looking at 7-5, 6-6. If we dont then were looking at 4 or 3 wins

  3. topherdane
    7:26 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    It looks like the bet is -175 on the over, so it is a significantly worse bet than it seems at first blush.

  4. Matt
    7:37 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    To say the Florida game is a toss up is just being silly. We have a long way to go to ever consider a game against Florida a toss up.

    • Tom
      8:10 am July 24, 2014 Permalink

      Ah, name calling.
      Intelligence shown by posters.
      Go for it.

  5. come on now
    7:39 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    obvious trolling or inability to see through the blue tinted shades calling UofL a toss up.

    • Bradley
      8:11 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

      You don’t know football chief. UK needed mediocre QB play and last years game would’ve been a toss up. Instead the QB play was just plain bad. I don’t think anyone has to be a homer to expect better play at QB this year. And I’d have to think even an imbocil like yourself would expect your Cards to take a step or 7 back at QB.

    • scorpiocard
      10:02 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

      Way to delude yourself Bradley. There was NOTHING about that game last year that was close. It was only 2 TDs because after running it down uk’s throat at the end of the game Charlie let Teddy throw it to Parker in the endzone attempting to pad Teddy’s stats. If they keep running its an easy 3 TD victory.

      U of L had over 250 yards rushing. You are confusing Charlie’s aversion to running up scores with a “close” game. You are selectively remembering Stoop’s freak DL formations that confused U of L for 1 1/2 quarters and forgetting that as soon as U of L figured it out, they did pretty much whatever they wanted.

      We are not worried about our QB because he is highly talented, albeit inexperienced. With Petrino running the offense, and with all the future NFL talent around Will Gardner the offensive production will be up overall, not down.

  6. Tim
    7:49 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    The UL game a “toss-up” – what a joke

  7. Ukcatzfan
    7:49 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    Isnt that an oximoron

    Kentucky football and easy win

  8. gordonm
    7:52 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    UK football will win at least 6 games this year including 2 SEC wins.

  9. jeff j
    7:58 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    enough already !!! lets play the games . let the outcomes speak for itself…….. geeeeeeze.

  10. brain
    8:20 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    If you think at UF is a toss up you probably shouldn’t be betting.

  11. FlySoup
    8:57 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    Don’t sleep on OU… the bobcats are a better team than wku was last year and only has a slight disadvantage in coaching compared to petrino

  12. scorpiocard
    9:27 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    I know I will get accused of trolling (and sometimes I do) but to attempt to have a serious discussion here, I love how I see all this talk about how uk is somehow close to U of L and that the game is somehow going to be a close game. Yes I realize it is a rivalry game, and “that is why they play the game” ALWAYS applies, and in theory, at least, anything can happen.

    But you are a 2 TD underdog! And with good reason!

    You have ONE good recruiting class that will be on campus, ALL TRUE freshmen. Aside from that, you still have basically the same depleted roster with little to no talent in the upper classes. You have no clue who your starting QB is going to be, because as of yet you don’t have a good one on the roster. Not one that has shown they are any good anyway.

    U of L on the other hand has at least 9 upper classmen that are on NFL draft board watch lists. Maybe more. Probably at least 5 will get drafted. 2 are “very likely” first rounders. Our QB is inexperienced, but highly talented. Talented enough that even after his injury his senior year of HS Alabama still had an offer on the table for him.

    And then there is Petrino. Stoops could not even beat him when he was at WKU! How is he going to beat him when he has a roster full of top talent?

    Its like Teddy left and you think the whole team left. Teddy came in with loads of talent, and only Teddy and Calvin Pryor went out early geniuses! The two best classes are still on the roster! And that is not talking about the transfers…Gerald Christian, Michael Dyer etc.

    What the hell are you people thinking? SERIOUS QUESTION. NOT TRASH TALK.

    • NL
      10:04 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

      She said 4 wins and 6 if the ball bounces UK’s way a few times. There is always a scenario in which one team can beat another (fumbles, interceptions, a broken tackle taken for 6, etc…). At no point did she say we were likely to beat UL or UF so chill out (not just you but the other people too). You’re being a little dramatic.

      Also, I would argue that UK is going to be a little better than you give them credit for. We return 8 starters on D, 4 starting OL, all our WRs that were any good, our best running back, etc… We have a couple of JUCO guys expected to make an instant impact. It really comes down to QB play. If we get good QB play this year, we could surprise some folks. One thing people discount is that we have been really young the last couple of years. Maybe some of that youth playing time will finally pay off.

      These are all hypothetical scenarios of course, but that’s all you have to talk about in July. Its talk buddy chill

    • scorpiocard
      10:23 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

      Well if its just talk then what is the problem? That is what I am doing…talking. Not sure why you think I need to chill, unless you just don’t like reading reality.

      I do think uk SHOULD be better. But after watching Petrino take Stoops apart with WKU’s talent, and only seeing 2 wins last season I would say its fair to say that the jury is still out on Stoops as a HC.

      Regardless, she picks the U of L game as a toss up which is just silly. It would very big upset if uk were to win. We all know that nothing is impossible, but a uk win is HIGHLY unlikely.

      My point is, that I often see on here all this talk about how Teddy is gone and now uk can play with U of L, as if football is a one player sport. Don’t get me wrong, Teddy was HUGE. But this U of L team probably has the most talent on it in the history of the program. A LOT of it mature talent.

      BTW..I forgot Damian Copeland went out early too, so three players left early, not just two.

    • Tom
      2:02 pm July 24, 2014 Permalink

      Scorp, forget trying to have a discussion on here.
      Most are here for a pep rally.
      We’ve got a head coach we got semi famous by playing with Micky Andrews recruits at Florida State.
      Our offensive coordinator got his rep with Mike Leach’s.
      Lets see what we do with their own.
      Forget the recruiting last year. Grade thhe coaching.
      Try convincing me Western Kentucky had better recruitiing classes than UK in the last five years.
      Excuses. We got all we can think of.

  13. Ronnie B
    10:28 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    LSU game – did ya laugh out loud? Did ya really?

  14. RealUKFan
    10:59 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    UK wins 4 if we get decent coaching. If we get great coaching it could be 5 and yes the 5th win is probably ul. The ul people seem to have forgotten that they have a new coach and a new quarterback. There are no guarantees. Their quarterback could flop. Even if he doesn’t I don’t see ul as being significantly better than uk.

    • reality
      11:10 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

      Name two positions where uk has ul beat on the field

    • scorpiocard
      11:18 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

      The over/under on U of L wins is 8. Vegas has them as a 2 TD win over uk. They legitimately have at least 9 guys who could get drafted next year. Petrino is a proven offensive savant who has been successful in his first season at every stop not in the NFL. He easily beat uk last season (as a new coach) with WKU’s talent.

      “Even if he doesn’t I don’t see ul as being significantly better than uk”.

      How can you justify the above statement aside from the fact that you see through blue tinted glasses of delusion? Serious question. Give me a straight and informed answer if you can.

  15. football school
    11:12 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    7 – 5 & Music City. I’d bet Grandma’s farm. Go Cats!

  16. Michael
    11:26 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    Calling anything an “easy win” for Kentucky is a joke. Yes, we should beat the 3 non power teams, but I don’t think saying this team is 3-0 right off the bat is giving us too much credit. This is the same team that has lost to Western two years in a row for crying out loud.

    This is the non blue tinted outlook:

    8/30 — UT Martin: Likely win

    9/6: Ohio — Likely win

    9/13 — at Florida: 95% loss. When was the last time we beat Florida? Exactly. And even though they are “struggling”, if Kentucky had a season as good as Florida did last year we would be talking about having a shot of winning the East this year.

    9/27 — Vanderbilt: 40% chance to win. This is our best chance at a win, but Vandy has been better than us for the past few years and just because they lost their coach doesn’t mean that we are suddenly better than them. We are the doormat in the East, and every single media member picked Vandy to finish ahead of us. That means they are better until we prove it.

    10/4 — South Carolina: 90% chance for loss. We’ve beaten them before so it isnt exactly the same as Florida, but to think we are even in the same ballpark as USC is a joke.

    10/11 — Louisiana-Monroe: Likely win

    10/18 — at LSU: 99% chance of a loss. Maybe all their starters get arrested the night before the game? Thats our best bet.

    10/25 — Mississippi State: 20% chance of a win. A lot of people are penciling this in as a win which makes no sense. They have beaten us consistently the past few years and this is their best team in a long time. Id argue we had a better chance of beating the last season then we do this season.

    11/1 — at Missouri: 90% loss. If they are 1/10 as good as they are last year then they beat us by 2 TDs.

    11/8 — Georgia: 90% loss. We historically play them well or else I’d say we have almost no shot. Georgia competes for the East title every year and I’d probably say they are the favorites this year.

    11/15 — at Tennessee: 90% loss. They have our number every year and are on the way up too. Until we prove we can beat them with a QB playing QB then I’m always saying this is a loss.

    11/29: at Louisville: 20% chance of a win. Normally it would be a lower chance but this being at the end of the season works to our advantage because we’d have the experience and they will be more beaten up than normal. Plus a rivalry tends to make games closer. Louisville is still light years ahead of us though and if you don’t think so you are a blind fan.

    • Tom
      10:18 am July 24, 2014 Permalink

      Wonder where Western Kentucky was listed year if the same predictions?

  17. UKfan
    11:38 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

    I was at the UK/UL game last year. I wasn’t impressed with Louisville or their “Heisman Trophy” QB. If UK runs the air raid this year like they are suppose to, then I look for a high scoring game between the 2. As far as odds on the game in Vegas, you do understand those will change as we approach actual game day. Anyone who quotes that crap probably buys into the preseason rankings as well. How dumb can you get.

    • scorpiocard
      11:53 pm July 23, 2014 Permalink

      What is “dumb” about objectively looking at the talent on both rosters? What is dumb about seeing with my own eyes what Petrino did to Stoops with WKU talent? I was at the uk vs WKU game AND the uk vs U of L game. Talk about not being impressed. How do you see uk as being a threat to U of L? Now that is dumb.

      I’ll tell you what dumb is. Being so much of a homer you are not impressed with a first round draft pick QB. Dumb is thinking the air raid will put up big numbers when you don’t have the talent and don’t even know who your QB will be. Dumb is not being impressed with a team that finished last season ranked in the top 15. Dumb is thinking when your team tacks on a TD at garbage time it was a “close game”.

      If we didn’t know how dumb you can get, you sure did show us with your post.

    • UKfan
      11:00 am July 24, 2014 Permalink

      I have seen your moniker on other boards so I know you are a troll, but I will go ahead and play along. If you wanted to be objective on talent alone, then you wouldn’t introduce some Vegas pre-season point spread as a validation of talent. That’s just stupid and if aren’t intelligent enough to recognize that then we might as well end this conversation now and let you continue to believe how objective you really are.

      Now let’s talk about talent. From 2011 -2014, UK and UL recruiting classes have ranked accordingly (UK 62,63,29,17) and (UL 29,42,52,40). I hope we can we agree that last year UK played a ton of freshman who should now be impact players this year. I suspect with the 10 4 star recruits we got this year will also get substantial playing time. Since this game is at the end of the season, can we agree that UK’s young talent should have experience. That puts two good UK classes on the field plus whatever talent from the previous 2 classes. From my observations last year, UK’s defense played a good game…it was our offense that was horrible. Hate to say it but it boiled down to the wrong quarterback in the wrong offense. I think you will see much improvement on the offense side of the ball and the defense should also improve slightly.

      “Being a homer you are not impressed with a first round draft pick”. No, I wasn’t impressed with your QB and it has nothing to do with being a homer. I was actually impressed with Devante Parker who I think will play in the NFL for many years to come. If Bridgewater does well in the NFL, I will eat my words. If he does poorly, will you eat yours? That will be the telltale sign of who the “homer” is.

      Let’s talk about rankings and being objective. Please name the legitimate teams that Louisville beat last year to secure this prestigious ranking. Anyone who believes they played even a mediocre schedule is delusional.

      Getting back to the game, Louisville won the game in the 3rd quarter but the game wasn’t a blowout like you want to portray. That line of thinking is the same as thinking this years teams will be the same as last. I assure you they won’t be. If UK beats UL, it won’t be a big upset.

    • reality
      3:26 pm July 24, 2014 Permalink

      yea because rankings on players coming out of high school are more accurate than the actual production the players have had in college

    • UKfan
      11:50 pm July 24, 2014 Permalink

      UL “production” has come against one of the weakest SOS in the nation and their biggest recruiting class. For example, their strength of schedule last year was ranked #98 versus #9 for UK. Wanna place a wager on Louisville talent out of high school versus their opponents talent. Didn’t think so. Go back and let the adults talk now.

  18. Biff Tannen
    1:37 am July 24, 2014 Permalink

    Yeah, this is what happens when you let girls write about football. Florida is going to be terrifying this year, along with UGA and SCAR. Like the old days (of the 90s and early 00s) the balance of SEC power will shift back to the east, with Bama locking down the west pretty easily.

    • Tiff Bannen
      9:14 am July 24, 2014 Permalink

      You may have some good points but pretty much lost me with the girl writing about football line. Completely unnecessary and an unbelievably sexist stereotype.

    • @Tiff
      9:38 am July 24, 2014 Permalink

      I agree his comment was sexist, but he was talking about Tyler, and if you read her posts, it’s very clear she knows little about football. She just regurgitates what she finds on the Internet because she doesn’t know enough to create her own content.

    • Tom
      2:58 pm July 24, 2014 Permalink

      Every one is entitled to their opinion regardless of sex,race, etc.
      Grow up.

  19. kybigblue
    12:09 pm July 24, 2014 Permalink

    UF a toss up??? Last year UF had 10 starters out with season ending injuries. The year before they lost one game during regular season. Even though UK has had good recruiting classes the last two years they still trail UF in recruiting. UF should be winning in every sport because the state of Fl. has the third largest recruiting class in the nation behind Tx. and Calif. UF was picked third in the division and UK was picked sixth plus what are the chances of UK winning in the swamp especially since they haven’t won in the conference the last two years.

  20. Tom
    2:19 pm July 24, 2014 Permalink

    The last two coaches our athletic director has picked had no head coaching experience But in the traditiomof Kentucky football, it now seems, we are going to let them learn how to be said head coach in the toughest conference. Wonder why we didn’t take a similar approach with the basketball opening?
    I doubt anything is going to surprise some one who has been a head man for many years. We don’t need experience, just a sales pitch about how good we’re going to be.
    Stoops got a million dollar raise on recruiting without us seeing the talent that these young men can bring to the table.
    I hopewe win ten heck, even twelve this year. Bother against brother in the national
    Championship game

  21. Tom
    2:33 pm July 24, 2014 Permalink

    BUT right now all we can do is wish and hope our opponents have a worst year than they did last year so we have a chance.
    We don’t need a coach with experience because all of the other conference schools and Louisville are waiting for ours to grow up, and get better. I bet they really feel bad to have Kentucky on their schedule.
    I mentioned this before but its worth repeating. I over heard two fans from Western Division schools talking football in a Hooters in Florida. They were talking about their schedules and playing Eastern Division teams. The LSU fan said we get to play Kentucky this year.The Arkansas fan said I wish we did.
    Makes you understand the respect we have around the league.