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A couple of stats that aren’t a great look for Kentucky’s chances

I don’t mean to be a downer here on Mississippi State Game Eve, but these numbers are worth sharing. And they’re not a boost of confidence.

According to our good friends at ESPN.com, Kentucky is only 4-12 against the spread in its last 16 games as an underdog in Kroger Field. That’s not great.

Across the way, Mississippi State covered the spread with ease in each of its first three games this year, one of which was in an impressive win on the road at Kansas State.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (-10, 55) at Kentucky Wildcats — 7 p.m. ET

  • Kentucky is 4-12 ATS in its 16 games as a home underdog under head coach Mark Stoops.
  • Mississippi State is 3-0 ATS this season, having covered by an average of 11.5 points in those three games. [ESPN.com]

The spread currently sits at 9.5 points after opening at 11 earlier in the week. The great Phil Steele has Mississippi State covering with an 18-point win, while the Odds Shark computer projection has Mississippi State winning by 15.

But what do they know?

Go Cats.

Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

55 Comments for A couple of stats that aren’t a great look for Kentucky’s chances



  1. Blue Beard
    3:45 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Drew… you serious man?? You and Ryan, Jesus… just downers since this morning. GET A GRIP MAN. We are out here all the way in Colorado, and have more faith in our team than your butt today. Get off the sports books, they do a number on fandom. And that isnt just a you thing… it is an everyone thing. Betting ruins the attitudes of even the most die hard fans. Seen it happen a million times…you seem like one of the good ones, don’t let it happen to you



    • TheAssman
      3:51 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      No offense blue beard but I love these stats….and I’m not a big gambler.



    • Blue Beard
      3:59 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Mr. TheAssman, (love the name btw) I’m not saying that I’m against gambling, or stats. I just think as a die hard fan you have to be a believer in beating the odds. Otherwise sports in general wouldn’t be very fun to watch… does that make more sense?



    • TheAssman
      4:09 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      I hear ya’…but I like to see what the populous thinks which is reflected in the odds which makes an underdog victory even sweeter.



    • Blue Beard
      4:14 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      I can get on board with that thinking Assman



    • wildcatfan20
      4:23 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Where you at blue beard? I live in Colorado Springs. Happy to see more blue in Colorado represented on KSR.



    • RockyMtnCatFan
      5:09 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      I live out in Colorado Springs as well wildcatfan20. Been out here for the past 4+ years now.



    • wildcatfan20
      11:05 pm September 22, 2018 Permalink

      Nice! We will have to connect and watch a game sometime, RMCF! [email protected]



    • Blue Beard
      4:54 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Wildcatfan20, also happy to see other CO cats fans on here! My fiance and I are in Denver, with a nice crew of fellow UK grads we watch with. We do have a few UK friends down your way in Old Colorado City tho. Do you all have an official UK watch bar down that way? If not, you should come join us for a game at Stoney’s Bar and Grill sometime this season. Our new alumni assoc. president came to an agreement with them this season. Tons of TVs, full game sound promised each week for football and basketball, UK flags hung around the bar already. The bar owner hates Kansas fans and figured the best way to keep them out was to bring in BBN! Ha. Shoot me an email if you feel like joining! [email protected]



    • Blue Beard
      4:55 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Oops, I guess they call it ‘Stoneys Uptown Join’ now, 1035 E 17th Ave, Denver, CO 80218



    • notFromhere
      11:21 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Well said, Blue Beard



  2. Catman1
    3:46 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    actually, oddshark has us losing 43-18. so by 25 points…



    • Luether
      5:38 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      My sources say State by at least 2 TDs…



    • satcheluk
      11:41 am September 23, 2018 Permalink

      Lol



  3. secrick
    3:46 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Covering the spread doesn’t mean a thing, a good coach lets all his players play and doesn’t worry about the frigging spread.This game is not do or die, they are 14th in the country we are not ranked.Play good and to blazes with the spread.



  4. DelrayCat
    3:51 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    I like to bet a little myself occassionally…but I do it with one key principle.
    NEVER BET ON KENTUCKY.
    It takes the fun out of the game.



    • DelrayCat
      3:53 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Emotion clouds analytical judgement.



    • CombatMedic_98
      6:35 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Glad you’re not a true blue fan…



  5. yourfriendcasey
    3:58 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Not degrading how good Miss. St. is. They really are a legit team. However, I don’t think I would call beating the same Kansas St. team who almost got beat by FCS South Dakota, an impressive win. Hopefully Kentucky can pull of the win tomorrow and everyone will be onboard with this team. Also, KSBar should have blue kool-aid on tap, and when UK beats Miss St. everyone gets free blue kool-aid.



    • michaelb
      4:24 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Lol good one . It seriously should be free @ ksbar , that would be hilarious



  6. UKfanman01
    4:04 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    We were pretty big dogs to Florida too. Not to mention the fact that odds in Vegas placed them in better shape to win the SEC AFTER losing to KY. Keep on hatin KSR. Just remember that when they win you cant bandwagon



  7. runningunnin.454
    4:14 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Damn the stats, and the odds, and the torpedoes…full speed ahead.
    Adm David Farragut USN (sort of)



  8. bigabes4uk
    4:17 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    But those stats are based on years past. This year is different. Much much different. I’ve never seen a swagger from a Kentucky football team like this one has. Color me surprised if we don’t cover this one— -haven’t we covered all the spreads so far this season? See what I mean? Different!



    • WillT
      10:46 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      We are actually only 1-2 against the spread this season. Not covering the spread in either home game. Only game we covered was the Florida game.



    • notFromhere
      11:24 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      ESPN had the cats listed as 3-0 ATS last Sunday.



  9. michaelb
    4:22 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    These guys bet fla this year too according to their stances in the shows .



  10. Irish son
    4:23 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    I love the Cats, but I’m not stupid. We are going to get rag dolled. 38-14 variety



    • michaelb
      4:27 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      It’s hard to say that in my opinion . Our d backs are strangely good this year and we play decent vs the run . I think it’s gonna be like the fla score 27-18 uk wins



    • CombatMedic_98
      6:38 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Negative.



    • Cmart0907
      8:31 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      I agree.



  11. SuperTroy18
    4:36 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    I love when naysayers cherrypick stats. Positive fans can do that too. Nick Fitzgerald is 0-1 at Kroger Field. MSU new coach Moorhead has NEVER beaten UK as a HC. Terry Wilson has never lost at Kroger Field. It’s just numbers until the ball gets kicked. I mean, I know some stats SEEM to mean more, like saaaaay 31 straight wins against a team and 39 years since we won in the Swamp. Those weigh heavier, right??

    This team just feels different. And until they prove me wrong, I’m fully on the board. Let everyone bet and pick against us. And let them lose their money when we shock the world again.



  12. Rick_S
    5:51 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    This is free money..Give the 10.5…. Cats go down 31-17



    • Skooms
      6:00 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

      Florida fans said the same thing. Just hope you’re ready to come back and eat some crow if you’re wrong. I have a feeling you’ll stay on the Miss State sites though, but who knows?



    • satcheluk
      11:44 am September 23, 2018 Permalink

      Eating ramen this week?



  13. J. Did
    6:17 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Stats don’t lie. Hope should never be part of the plan. It will take an act of GOT….or the Greek GOT, “Mira Cleese” (no relation to John) for KENTUCKY to beat Miss State. Prayer vigil began last Sunday.



    • satcheluk
      11:44 am September 23, 2018 Permalink

      I guess prayer works.



  14. Bluebloodtoo
    6:27 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Yeah, last weekend everyone was taking about a 31 year record that hasn’t been broken. What happened to those statistics?



  15. BluKudzu
    7:35 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Samuel Clements said: “There are three kinds of lies out there; Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.”
    Projections based on statistics are just that, projections. That is why the games are played.
    It is going to be a tough hill to climb, but with a little luck, and man are we due, we will plant that flag on the top of that hill.
    Go Cats. Make it happen.



  16. kjd
    7:41 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Absolutely nothing new here. It was reported here a little while ago that Stoops is the worst coach against the spread since coming to UK.
    Also, the spread don’t mean diddly squat. Play the game.
    Go Big Blue!



  17. antiquefurnitureandmidgets
    8:22 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    I was expecting some insight to these teams. Instead I was met with percentages of covering spreads? That is literally meaningless.



  18. Paw
    10:32 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    Keep Doubting My Wildcats that makes the Win Even Sweeter ! I was in Louisville to see them take down Lamar and in Gainesville as they Destroyed that Streak Let’s see what happens on a cold and Rainy Kroger Field!! Go Big Blue



  19. jorgepancho
    11:05 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    These stats are meaningless. Stoops has steadily built this program, and he beat State in 2016. Before a couple weeks ago, Mullen had only lost that one time to UK. But I encourage you and readers to have a look at State’s road resume over the past few seasons – they have no quality wins. Last season, they won at Arkansas and A&M – two programs on the decline. And the Dawgs got torched by Auburn and Georgia. Kentucky is better than A&M was last season. And my hunch is that Wilson can indeed run and pass on anyone. Never mind how Benny Snell has proven he can run on anyone. As long as the defense shows up, and prevents the big play, these Wildcats can win, and by more than a last second field goal. The Cats will cover. State’s resume this season is fool’s gold – running up scores on inferior teams is no measure of greatness. This Kentucky defense just held a Mullen offense to 16 points. That won’t happen again this season. This is the best team at UK since the 1970’s. You heard it here first.



    • jorgepancho
      1:27 am September 23, 2018 Permalink

      Like I said … UK is 2-0 in the SEC for the first time since 1977. And Snell is perhaps the greatest Wildcat ever.



  20. notFromhere
    11:18 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    “Impressive win against Kansas State…” I guess you didnt watch the game and dont know much about Kansas State.



  21. notFromhere
    11:20 pm September 21, 2018 Permalink

    When has Stoops ever coached a game against Pitino? Is that not what you meant by “The Spread”…?



  22. KYjellyRoll
    12:47 am September 22, 2018 Permalink

    27-17. State won’t contain Snell, rose and Wilson. I just seem to think U.K. Is more disciplined in their defense this year. The O-line will hold its own in this game.



  23. TheZmanishere
    7:02 am September 22, 2018 Permalink

    I believe we have a great shot at winning. This is a different Kentucky team. They are more mature, experienced, depth and swagger. Cats win 35-20.



  24. Alleykat16
    9:42 am September 22, 2018 Permalink

    What was the spread down at the swamp. I’m sure we covered that. And besides those are past teams, and this year we are starting a new thing. It’s called CATS WIN AGAIN! GO BIG BLUE!



  25. Bullitt County UK fan
    11:13 am September 22, 2018 Permalink

    Calling it right now. 6-0 Kentucky after a 99 yard Kash Daniel pick six in the eleventh overtime



  26. natedaddy
    1:11 pm September 22, 2018 Permalink

    Based on those statistics, I would expect the Cats cover tonight. I expect a good game, but eventually I think we wear out at the end.