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2014 vs. 2015: The Numbers Game

14-15

Kentucky’s 2015 late-season slide feels different than 2014’s version. Did a little digging, numbers reveal why…

DEFENSE

Scoring Defense

2014: 31.3

2015: 28.1

Rushing Defense

2014: 191

2015: 189.3

Pass Defense

2014: 215

2015: 211

Total Defense

2014: 406.9

2015: 400.8

Tackles for Loss

2014: 65

2015: 40

Interceptions

2014: 15

2015: 6

Quarterback Sacks

2014: 27

2015: 13

3rd Down Conversion

2014: 42.17%

2015: 41.10%

OFFENSE

Scoring Offense

2014: 29.2

2015: 21.4

Rushing Offense

2014: 153

2015: 144

Passing Offense

2014: 231

2015: 218

Total Offense

2014: 384 yards

2015: 362

Tackles for Loss Allowed

2014: 84

2015: 66

Interceptions

2014: 11

2015: 15

3rd Down Conversion

2014: 33.8 %

2015: 36%


What does all this mean?

Significant numbers are the ones that lead to flipped field position, change of game’s momentum, or possession. Kentucky’s defense finished 2014 with 15 interceptions, 27 QB sacks, and 65 tackles for loss. All of which are significantly greater than 2015’s output. 2015’s group is giving up slightly less yards in most categories.

Offensively, points per game decreased by slightly more than a touchdown as interceptions have increased. QB sacks are slightly lower than 2014 which surprised. Cats are averaging 22 less total yards per game but converting a higher percentage on third down. The 14 Wildcats ranked 11th in explosion plays, it currently is eighth. Third down conversion percentages are up from a year ago. There were no statistics to support, but dropped passes and ineffective short yardage plays have contributed to a lower scoring average.

UK has two remaining games to raise or lower averages. On Saturday, I’d expect a rise in offensive statistics and lowering from their defensive counterparts.

*Please note 2014 numbers reflect a 12-game schedule. 2015 statistics are compiled from 10 completed contests and can improve or decline based on production.

Article written by Freddie Maggard

Former University of Kentucky Quarterback and Andy Griffith Fan Club President

8 Comments for 2014 vs. 2015: The Numbers Game



  1. daysleeper
    11:58 am November 20, 2015 Permalink

    Freddie
    Not a football expert — long way from it. But I have a couple of questions for you…
    It appears to me that as the season progresses, other teams coaching staff have had a chance to see UK offense and defense, they adjusted their offense and defense — successfully.
    Is this something yow would agree with?
    And if so — next question
    Why haven’t UKs offense and defense changed/adjusted too?



  2. The Professor
    1:10 pm November 20, 2015 Permalink

    The defensive sack and interception numbers are not surprising as we lost 2 excellent DEs to the NFL and their replacements are just not nearly as good. Where there is pressure interceptions will follow. Mediocre QBs have looked like Tom Brady against us because of the lack of pressure. That issue is less about coaching and more about lack of talent at a key position.
    However, the Shane Dawson experiment has been a dismal failure. SEC defensive coordinators are as good as it gets and he is obviously not at a level where he can match wits with any of them. The lack of coaching experience has reared its ugly head at numerous positions but none so much as offensive coordinator. We can not afford to have such incompetence on the staff. He has to go.



  3. Biglaw Dawgin'
    1:22 pm November 20, 2015 Permalink

    “What does all this mean?” – It’s time for basketball season.



  4. papasnapper
    1:42 pm November 20, 2015 Permalink

    Nice analytics, but all it really means is “Oh no! We suck again!” Since we are having better recruiting classes, although still towards the bottom compared to other SEC teams, maybe getting a season or two of coaching under the HC, DC and OC belts may help in the long run.



  5. kycats13
    2:07 pm November 20, 2015 Permalink

    I think it is because we are a young team, have no depth, and are strapped with Joker’s boyz. Isn’t that getting old. Truth is our coaching staff has not put the players in a position to be successful. ( I hope)



  6. The Original WTF Guy
    2:11 pm November 20, 2015 Permalink

    If you are going to present analysis regarding the second half slide in 2014 and 2015 you need to look at numbers from the second half of the season compared to the first half. For example, the issues isn’t rushing defense in 2014 v 2015 but rather the change in rushing defense in the first half of the season v the second half in 2014 and the same in 2015 and then the difference of those differences. For example, the relevant analysis is the how different the difference in rushing defense from the first half to the second half was last year to this year. Basing the analysis on data from the entire season masks any significant differences that are occurring between the halves of the season. The analysis presented does a goodd job of looking at season to season changes, but not first half to second half ones.



    • papasnapper
      3:50 pm November 20, 2015 Permalink

      Huh?



    • The Professor
      6:55 pm November 20, 2015 Permalink

      Your argurment only holds weight if the strength of the opponents is equal in both halves. Last year, the back half of the schedule was way tougher than the first half.There is no question that this year’s schedule has been the softest in recent memory, The SEC as a whole is down with few teams possessing a quality QB. Only Bama and Florida are playing at a high level. In the East, TN is good but the rest are mediocre at best. Auburn and MSU are no better than 5th best in the West.