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ESPN FPI projections for each game on Kentucky’s schedule

ESPN’s Football Power Index game-by-game projections are out, and, well, they don’t look great for Kentucky. Here’s the percentage chance Kentucky has to win each of the games on the schedule, according to the FPI:

DATE OPPONENT RESULT/PROJ OPP FPI (RK)
Sat, Aug 31 vs Toledo 82.0% -3.4 (77)
Sat, Sept 7 vs Eastern Michigan 92.4% -11.5 (110)
Sat, Sept 14 vs Florida 26.8% 17.6 (8)
Sat, Sept 21 at Mississippi State 22.2% 13.7 (16)
Sat, Sept 28 at South Carolina 25.5% 12.3 (18)
Sat, Oct 12 vs Arkansas 74.6% 0.5 (60)
Sat, Oct 19 at Georgia 9.3% 22.3 (3)
Sat, Oct 26 vs Missouri 41.3% 12.1 (19)
Sat, Nov 9 vs Tennessee 38.6% 14.0 (15)
Sat, Nov 16 at Vanderbilt 49.4% 3.8 (50)
Sat, Nov 23 vs UT Martin 98.1%
Sat, Nov 30 vs Louisville 76.8% -1.0 (66)

What are we to make of these numbers? Earlier today, Adam Luckett did a great job explaining why the analytics don’t tend to favor Kentucky:

Understanding Kentucky’s current place in college football analytics

…but personally, I prefer Lynn Bowden’s response: