Kentucky is currently 15-3 overall, 5-1 in conference play. What will that record look like at the end of the regular season?
Unfortunately, I don’t have a time machine, but I do have access to the Sagarin and KenPom ratings, both which include predictions for the rest of the season. Obviously, the chances these numbers turn out to be right isn’t great, but it’s a rainy day, so let’s have some fun and look ahead.
Sagarin Predictor: 27-4, 16-2 in conference play
Kentucky’s current Sagarin Predictor rating is 89.14, ninth best in the country. The home advantage is 3.1. Using those numbers and the numbers of Kentucky’s opponents, the Sagarin Predictor has the Cats finishing the regular season 27-4, the only loss being at Tennessee.
|Sat, Jan 26||HOME||Kentucky 92.24||Kansas 89.61|
|Tue, Jan 29||AWAY||Kentucky 89.14||Vanderbilt 82.31|
|Sat, Feb 2||AWAY||Kentucky 89.14||Florida 88.82|
|Tue, Feb 5||HOME||Kentucky 92.24||South Carolina 78.24|
|Sat, Feb 9||AWAY||Kentucky 89.14||Mississippi State 88.25|
|Tue, Feb 12||HOME||Kentucky 92.24||LSU 85.66|
|Sat, Feb 16||HOME||Kentucky 92.24||Tennessee 91.03|
|Tue, Feb 19||AWAY||Kentucky 89.14||Missouri 82.18|
|Sat, Feb 23||HOME||Kentucky 92.24||Auburn 88.38|
|Tue, Feb 26||HOME||Kentucky 92.24||Arkansas 81.24|
|Sat, Mar 2||AWAY||Kentucky 89.14||Tennessee 94.13|
|Tue, Mar 5||AWAY||Kentucky 89.14||Ole Miss 86.33|
|Sat, Mar 9||HOME||Kentucky 92.24||Florida 85.72|
That’s pretty much a dream scenario and one I’d pay good money to see happen. Unfortunately, there is no way to put a point value on “Everybody’s Super Bowl,” so you have to think the Cats have more slip ups than on the road vs. the current No. 1 team in the country.
KenPom: 23-8, 13-5 in conference play
The Cats are currently No. 8 in the KenPom ratings. KenPom also predicts future games and team’s final records, but the formula for the final records is based off cumulative probabilities, so in some cases — like this one — the numbers don’t match. I’ll be honest, I don’t really understand that, but KenPom’s projected record for Kentucky is 23-8, 13-5 in conference play. That would have them finishing third in the SEC, which could mean the late game Friday night at the SEC Tournament, depending on tiebreakers (gag):
KenPom’s individual game projections are much rosier, showing Kentucky only losing two more times, at Florida and at Tennessee (the far right column is percentage chance to win):
|Sat, Jan 26||HOME||Kentucky 74||Kansas 69||65%|
|Tue, Jan 29||AWAY||Kentucky 75||Vanderbilt 66||78%|
|Sat, Feb 2||AWAY||Kentucky 64||Florida 65||50%|
|Tue, Feb 5||HOME||Kentucky 82||South Carolina 66||92%|
|Sat, Feb 9||AWAY||Kentucky 72||Mississippi St. 71||51%|
|Tue, Feb 12||HOME||Kentucky 78||LSU 71||74%|
|Sat, Feb 16||HOME||Kentucky 75||Tennessee 74||51%|
|Tue, Feb 19||AWAY||Kentucky 69||Missouri 63||71%|
|Sat, Feb 23||HOME||Kentucky 76||Auburn 71||68%|
|Tue, Feb 26||HOME||Kentucky 79||Arkansas 66||88%|
|Sat, Mar 2||AWAY||Kentucky 71||Tennessee 77||27%|
|Tue, Mar 5||AWAY||Kentucky 73||Ole Miss 71||57%|
|Sat, Mar 9||HOME||Kentucky 68||Florida 61||73%|
Personally, I see two or three more losses for the Cats. One will undoubtedly come vs. Tennessee, probably at Thompson-Boling, and another at Mississippi State or Ole Miss. Add in a loss to Kansas on Saturday night or a random off night somewhere along the way and that feels about right; however, with the way this team’s building momentum right now, you never know.
How do you think Kentucky will finish the season? Pick their final record below: