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Sagarin, KenPom predictions for the rest of the season

Kentucky is currently 15-3 overall, 5-1 in conference play. What will that record look like at the end of the regular season?

Unfortunately, I don’t have a time machine, but I do have access to the Sagarin and KenPom ratings, both which include predictions for the rest of the season. Obviously, the chances these numbers turn out to be right isn’t great, but it’s a rainy day, so let’s have some fun and look ahead.

Sagarin Predictor: 27-4, 16-2 in conference play

Kentucky’s current Sagarin Predictor rating is 89.14, ninth best in the country. The home advantage is 3.1. Using those numbers and the numbers of Kentucky’s opponents, the Sagarin Predictor has the Cats finishing the regular season 27-4, the only loss being at Tennessee.

Sat, Jan 26 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Kansas 89.61
Tue, Jan 29 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Vanderbilt 82.31
Sat, Feb 2 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Florida 88.82
Tue, Feb 5 HOME Kentucky 92.24 South Carolina 78.24
Sat, Feb 9 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Mississippi State 88.25
Tue, Feb 12 HOME Kentucky 92.24 LSU 85.66
Sat, Feb 16 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Tennessee 91.03
Tue, Feb 19 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Missouri 82.18
Sat, Feb 23 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Auburn 88.38
Tue, Feb 26 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Arkansas 81.24
Sat, Mar 2 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Tennessee 94.13
Tue, Mar 5 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Ole Miss 86.33
Sat, Mar 9 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Florida 85.72

That’s pretty much a dream scenario and one I’d pay good money to see happen. Unfortunately, there is no way to put a point value on “Everybody’s Super Bowl,” so you have to think the Cats have more slip ups than on the road vs. the current No. 1 team in the country.

KenPom: 23-8, 13-5 in conference play

The Cats are currently No. 8 in the KenPom ratings. KenPom also predicts future games and team’s final records, but the formula for the final records is based off cumulative probabilities, so in some cases — like this one — the numbers don’t match. I’ll be honest, I don’t really understand that, but KenPom’s projected record for Kentucky is 23-8, 13-5 in conference play. That would have them finishing third in the SEC, which could mean the late game Friday night at the SEC Tournament, depending on tiebreakers (gag):

Team Overall Conference Projected
Tennessee 16-1 5-0 15-3
LSU 14-3 4-0 13-5
Kentucky 15-3 5-1 13-5
South Carolina 10-8 5-1 9-9
Mississippi 14-4 4-2 11-7
Florida 11-7 3-3 10-8
Alabama 12-6 3-3 9-9
Auburn 13-5 2-3 10-8
Mississippi St. 14-4 2-3 9-9
Missouri 10-6 1-3 6-12
Arkansas 10-7 1-4 7-11
Georgia 9-8 1-4 5-13
Texas A&M 7-10 1-5 5-13
Vanderbilt 9-8 0-5 3-15

KenPom’s individual game projections are much rosier, showing Kentucky only losing two more times, at Florida and at Tennessee (the far right column is percentage chance to win):

Sat, Jan 26 HOME Kentucky 74 Kansas 69 65%
Tue, Jan 29 AWAY Kentucky 75 Vanderbilt 66 78%
Sat, Feb 2 AWAY Kentucky 64 Florida 65 50%
Tue, Feb 5 HOME Kentucky 82 South Carolina 66 92%
Sat, Feb 9 AWAY Kentucky 72 Mississippi St. 71 51%
Tue, Feb 12 HOME Kentucky 78 LSU 71 74%
Sat, Feb 16 HOME Kentucky 75 Tennessee 74 51%
Tue, Feb 19 AWAY Kentucky 69 Missouri 63 71%
Sat, Feb 23 HOME Kentucky 76 Auburn 71 68%
Tue, Feb 26 HOME Kentucky 79 Arkansas 66 88%
Sat, Mar 2 AWAY Kentucky 71 Tennessee 77 27%
Tue, Mar 5 AWAY Kentucky 73 Ole Miss 71 57%
Sat, Mar 9 HOME Kentucky 68 Florida 61 73%

Personally, I see two or three more losses for the Cats. One will undoubtedly come vs. Tennessee, probably at Thompson-Boling, and another at Mississippi State or Ole Miss. Add in a loss to Kansas on Saturday night or a random off night somewhere along the way and that feels about right; however, with the way this team’s building momentum right now, you never know.

How do you think Kentucky will finish the season? Pick their final record below:


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Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

13 Comments for Sagarin, KenPom predictions for the rest of the season



  1. UKfaninTX
    5:35 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

    Seriously? Who ACTUALLY thinks they will LOSE out the rest of the season?



    • ukjaybrat
      5:41 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

      That would be the wishes of “The Haters”



    • Cokely53
      5:48 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

      Trolls being wishful



    • bigbluebanana
      6:38 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

      Hmm, I wonder who around here would want that so they could be happy? I can name 3 people right now.



  2. kentuckybackupplayer
    5:49 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

    this needs to be combined with the mock draft, bracketology machine. a “futurerecordmockdraftfakebracket” space modulator.



  3. Crisp
    6:09 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

    I see 19 other jokesters besides me went with the 15-16.



    • bigbluebanana
      6:38 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

      I’m sure one or two of those were wishful thinkers, and they weren’t voting that way ironically.



  4. brb_skywalking
    7:13 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

    Were the scores swapped for the KenPom game @ Tennessee? Currently says UK 78 UTk 71 but has Tennessee bolded for the win



  5. StillBP
    7:55 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

    BoB and his trolling accounts all said another 10 loss season and since they are obviously experts, that’s what’s going to happen. *sarcasm font*



  6. BlueInVA
    11:58 pm January 23, 2019 Permalink

    This is incredibly stupid.



  7. UKfanman01
    5:33 am January 24, 2019 Permalink

    Bahahaha. 43 votes to lose the rest of the season = UofLol fans who religously look at a pro Kentucky website. Times hardcore UK fans visit UofLol sites…. Well we dont rofl



  8. CahillsCrossingNT
    7:54 am January 24, 2019 Permalink

    Eight losses is far more likely than four. Few teams with UK’s schedule would have a chance to lose only once more.