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Sagarin, KenPom Predictions For Kentucky’s Next Five Games

© Joseph Maiorana | USATSI

© Joseph Maiorana | USATSI

Kentucky only plays five games in December, but two are against top six teams (No. 1 Louisville, No. 6 Ohio State). Big month! In the midst of a rare week between games, let’s take a look at the Cats’ next five opponents and what the KenPom and Sagarin Ratings are saying about the possible outcomes.

(Note: Kentucky currently ranks 30th in the Sagarin Ratings and 7th in the KenPom Ratings. The NCAA’s NET Rankings are not available for the 2019-20 season yet.)

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Saturday, December 7, 4 PM, Rupp Arena, SEC Network

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Coaches Poll: NR
  • Sagarin Rating: 298
  • KenPom: 264

The Knights are 2-5 this season, their only wins coming over FDU-Fordham (101-52) and Quinnipiac (78-77). The only Power 5 opponent they’ve played is Notre Dame and they lost 91-66. According to the Sagarin and KenPom ratings, they are the second worst team Kentucky will play this season behind Eastern Kentucky. Both rating systems predict a big win.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky 88.85, Fairleigh Dickinson 64.6

KenPom: Kentucky 80, Fairleigh Dickinson 56 (99% win probability)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Saturday, December 14, 5 PM, Rupp Arena, ESPN

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Coaches Poll: NR
  • Sagarin Rating: 74
  • KenPom: 72

The Yellow Jackets are 3-2 this season, both losses coming to SEC teams. They lost at Georgia 82-78 on Nov. 20 and vs. Arkansas at home 62-61 in overtime on Nov. 25. Their “best win” was at NC State in overtime 82-81 to start the season.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky 88.85, Georgia Tech 80.18

KenPom: Kentucky 72, Georgia Tech 60 (86% win probability)

Utah Utes

Wednesday, December 18, 11 PM, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, ESPN2

  • AP Poll: NR
  • Coaches Poll: NR
  • Sagarin Rating: 95
  • KenPom: 121

Utah is 5-2 on the season, their losses coming to Coastal Carolina (ouch) and Tulane. Their best wins are at Nevada to start the season vs. Minnesota on Nov. 15.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky 85.73, Utah 79.45

KenPom: Kentucky 78, Utah 64 (89% win probability)

Ohio State Buckeyes

Saturday, December 21, 5:15 PM, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, CBS

  • AP Poll: 6
  • Coaches Poll: 6
  • Sagarin Rating: 4
  • KenPom: 4

The Buckeyes are 7-0, with wins over No. 10 Villanova, Cincinnati, and five crappy teams. They’re now No. 6 in the country in both polls and face No. 7 North Carolina tonight in Chapel Hill (9:30 PM, ESPN). On a neutral court, both Sagarin and KenPom have the Cats taking an L to the Buckeyes (even more reason to come to #BBNVEGAS!).

Sagarin Predictor: Ohio State 91.02, Kentucky 85.73

KenPom: Ohio State 65, Kentucky 63 (45% win probability)

Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, December 28, 3:45 PM, Rupp Arena, CBS

  • AP Poll: 1
  • Coaches Poll: 1
  • Sagarin Rating: 3
  • KenPom: 1

As we are all well aware, the 8-0 Louisville Cardinals are the No. 1 team in the country, their most impressive win coming against No. 4 Michigan at home last night. Blah Blah Blah. Rupp better be loud.

Sagarin Predictor: Louisville 89.52, Kentucky 88.85

KenPom: Kentucky 67, Louisville 66 (51% win probability)

Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

7 Comments for Sagarin, KenPom Predictions For Kentucky’s Next Five Games

  1. Cousins Fake Tooth
    3:13 pm December 4, 2019 Permalink

    Louisvilles “impressive” win my arse over Michigan. Michigan 72 hours ago was UNRANKED. And you seen why last night.

  2. eddiesuttonsliver
    3:33 pm December 4, 2019 Permalink

    here is my shot at coach speak: “win or lose we’re about to find out a lot about this team and where we are”

    4:01 pm December 4, 2019 Permalink

    We will get into the lane at will against the cards defense . We will also shoot 30 free throws and the card fans will cry foul . We hit mid lane jumpers and free throws and we win the game

  4. dan1965
    4:37 pm December 4, 2019 Permalink

    I hate Louisville, no topic in particular,just anytime I have a chance to say it I never try to let the opportunity pass ! UL sucks ! Throw in Duke,Indiana,and Tennessee while I’m at it !
    OK,I feel better now…lol

  5. blubarbarian
    7:53 am December 5, 2019 Permalink

    How is Ohio State favored to win on a neutral floor? We beat the number one team in the nation easily. The best victory they have is against number 10 rated Villanova. The rest of their wins are crappy as the headline reads. OK we should be the favorite buy small margin. We are given 45% chance of winning that game? As far as the Louisville game I’m not sold on the quality of the cards opposition to date. Michigan was ridiculously over rated and unrated three days prior to that game and jumped all the way to number seven? That has to be unprecedented. I’d say the game is a tossup with the cat being a small favorite due to the history in recent years. Go BBN!

  6. Megan
    10:07 am December 5, 2019 Permalink

    How can the Sagarin Predictor and KenPom be so far off in their scores? Sagarin has Ohio State scoring 91, KenPom has them scoring 65. Um, that’s not even close. Sagarin has Kentucky scoring 86, KenPom has them scoring 63. Again, not even close.

    So which one do we trust? Neither, I say. Both can’t be accurate. What a silly waste of time.

    Sagarin Predictor: Louisville 90. KenPom: Louisville 66. What?
    Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky 89. KenPom: Kentucky 67. Nonsense.

  7. VirginiaCat
    5:13 pm December 5, 2019 Permalink

    Looking forward to getting through the cupcake schedule and playing against legitimate competition. Our signature win against Michigan State was, in retrospect, a hollow victory when considering that the Spartans aren’t very good. Ohio State and Louisville will be good tests and give us a good idea where we are as a team.