Kentucky has seven games left in the regular season; according to the ESPN Basketball Power Index, they should only win three of them.
As we have throughout the conference season, let’s rank the remaining games from hardest to easiest (although, if there’s one thing this team has proved, it’s that nothing’s easy).
1. @ Auburn
Wednesday, February 14
No. 8 Auburn lost by one to Texas A&M at home last night, but per the BPI, Wednesday’s game is still the toughest on Kentucky’s schedule. The last time Kentucky played at Auburn, Bruce Pearl got his first win over John Calipari as the head coach of the Tigers, so you know that place will be rocking for the late tip on Valentine’s Day.
ESPN BPI Win Probability: 24.0%
2. @ Texas A&M
Saturday, February 10
The Aggies are starting to resemble the squad picked to win the SEC before the season began, as showcased by last night’s upset over No. 8 Auburn. Kentucky beat Texas A&M by one back in early January, but in College Station with the Aggies riding a three-game winning streak, Saturday could be a totally different story.
ESPN BPI Win Probability: 31.8%
3. @ Florida
Saturday, March 3
Florida beat Kentucky by two in Rupp last month, and even though the Gators have lost two of their last three, knocking them off on Senior Day in Gainesville will be a tall task.
ESPN BPI Win Probability: 34.5%
4. @ Arkansas
Tuesday, February 20
The Razorbacks lost back-to-back games on the road at Texas A&M and LSU before getting back on track with a win over South Carolina at home. Still, the BPI thinks less of Kentucky’s chances in Fayetteville than it did a week ago, lowering Kentucky’s win probability from 40.6% to 38.5%.
ESPN BPI Win Probability: 38.5%
5. vs. Missouri
Saturday, February 24
Missouri beat Kentucky by nine in Columbia last Saturday, but the BPI likes Kentucky’s chances at getting revenge in Rupp in a few weeks.
ESPN BPI Win Probability: 71.6%
6. vs. Alabama
Saturday, February 17
Next Saturday’s game comes at a crucial time for Kentucky. The Cats will be coming off the toughest stretch of the season, with road games at Texas A&M and Auburn. Alabama has been better this year, with a mega star in Collin Sexton, but thankfully, this game takes place in Lexington, not Tuscaloosa.
ESPN BPI Win Probability: 74.4%
7. vs. Ole Miss
Wednesday, February 28
Kentucky’s best chance of winning will be vs. Ole Miss in the final home game of the season. Not only are the Rebel Black Bear Landsharks riding a four-game losing streak, it’s been 20 years since they’ve won in Rupp Arena.
ESPN BPI Win Probability: 85.4%