ESPN.com got all mathematical and analytical in projecting what we can expect out of all of the NBA prospects in this year’s NBA draft. Using a very complex and complicated method of projecting the future from FiveThirtyEight.com, ESPN determined the likelihood each player will become an All-Star, a starter or a role player in the league.
De’Aaron Fox is the most likely of the Kentucky bunch to become an All-Star, according to the study, which found Fox has an 8.3 percent chance of earning an All-Star bid, a 27.8 percent chance of being an NBA starter, and a 26.5 percent chance of falling into a smaller role within a rotation. Malik Monk has a better shot at starting with a 35.5 percent chance of being a regular in a starting lineup, but only a 6.9 percent chance of playing in an All-Star game and a 24.6 percent chance of only being a role player.
Then there’s the surprise down in the “Beyond The Lottery” section of the report where ESPN names four sleeper picks with bright futures.
Kentucky’s Isaac Humphries, who is projected to go undrafted, received high praise as a potential contributor in the league. The study found Humphries has a 13.3 percent chance of starting one day, the 23rd best percentage of the entire class.
Isaac Humphries (Kentucky), Thomas Bryant (Indiana), Caleb Swanigan (Purdue) and Tyler Lydon (Syracuse) are all top-30 players in our projections, though none can be found within the top 29 picks of Chad Ford’s latest mock draft.
Humphries (not listed in either round of the mock) had a very high adjusted offensive rebound percentage while at Kentucky, and rebounding is the collegiate skill that most consistently carries over to the NBA, according to the projections. Humphries has little chance of becoming an All-Star, but the model gives him a 28 percent chance of being above a replacement-level player. His likelihood of being a role player should be attractive to teams at the end of the first round and into the second. [ESPN.com]
I don’t know how believable this whole study is, but it’s interesting to read how each prospect is expected to pan out through this particular system of analytics. Isaac Humphries’ projection is quite surprising and maybe a team will roll the dice on him in hopes it’s an accurate look at his future.
Read more here.