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Kentucky’s SEC Tournament Scenarios With Two Games Left

With two games left to play in the regular season, Kentucky could finish anywhere from fourth to ninth in the conference standings, which could mean the difference between playing first thing Thursday, last thing Thursday night, or, if all the dominos fall into place, Friday afternoon.

Before we dig into the scenarios, here are the current standings and seedings if the tournament started today.

Current Standings

Alabama 14-2 19-6
Arkansas 11-4 2.5 19-5
Florida 9-5 4 13-6
LSU 9-6 4.5 14-8
Tennessee 9-7 5 16-7
Ole Miss 8-8 6 13-10
Missouri 7-7 6 14-7
Kentucky 7-8 6.5 8-14
Mississippi State 7-9 7 13-12
Georgia 7-10 7.5 14-10
Auburn 6-10 8 12-13
South Carolina 4-10 9 6-12
Texas A&M 2-6 8 8-7
Vanderbilt 3-11 10 7-13

Current Seeds

Now, what has to happen for Kentucky to get out of Alabama’s half of the bracket? With the help of MRed’s SEC MBB Tournament Tiebreaker tool, I crunched the numbers.

Win out: Likely the 6-seed

If Kentucky beats Ole Miss and South Carolina, and every team ranked higher than their opponent in the Sagarin ratings wins, it will be the 6-seed playing 11-seed South Carolina late Thursday night.

March 2 & 3 March 6 & 7
Kentucky beats Ole Miss Kentucky beats South Carolina
LSU beats Vandy Auburn beats Mississippi State
Alabama beats Auburn Alabama beats Georgia
Arkansas beats South Carolina Arkansas beats Texas A&M
Florida beats Missouri LSU beats Missouri
Mississippi State beats Texas A&M Ole Miss beats Vandy
Tennessee beats Florida

I’ve run almost every scenario, and if the Cats win out, they will get the six seed.

Lose one: Likely the 7-seed

Drop either the Ole Miss or South Carolina games and you’re looking at the 7-seed playing 10-seed Georgia in the first game in the Thursday evening session.

There are some scenarios in which Kentucky would end up as the 8-seed if it loses one of two:

  • Missouri beats Florida and/or LSU
  • Mississippi State beats Auburn

So, back up to Alabama’s half of the bracket.

Lose both: Likely the 9-seed

Should Kentucky lose to both Ole Miss and South Carolina and every team ranked higher than their opponent in the Sagarin ratings wins, it will be the 9-seed playing 8-seed Missouri Thursday afternoon.


The Double-Bye Scenario

As we mentioned over the weekend, there is still a scenario in which Kentucky can end up with a double-bye, but it is very unlikely.

If all of that happens, this would be the draw:

Having to beat both LSU and Alabama just to get to the finals? Is that really better than the other scenarios?

If you could pick Kentucky’s path right now, which one would it be?

Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

16 Comments for Kentucky’s SEC Tournament Scenarios With Two Games Left

  1. BamaCatFan85
    10:38 am March 1, 2021 Permalink

    I think the 6 seed is pretty appealing. I’m not sure the 4 would give UK the best chance anyway.

    • kyle macys socks
      10:57 am March 1, 2021 Permalink

      Agreed. And I think the most likely scenario as well

  2. 1IH
    11:19 am March 1, 2021 Permalink

    They could be the #1 seed and will not win this tournament they way the play this year.

  3. Lip Man 1
    12:33 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

    That took a lot of effort to figure out the scenarios and she deserves credit for that, however it really was a waste of time given the way this year has gone. No UK in the tournament? No tournament as far as I’m concerned, won’t watch a second of it.

    Who cares?

    • ThankfulCat
      12:51 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

      A lot of folks who haven’t caved in like little snowflakes the way you have still care. Folks who care because it’s Kentucky basketball.

    • Axel72
      1:03 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

      If you can’t watch when they struggle, no reason to be a supporter at all. They are hard to watch this year, but if you bleed blue, you bleed blue. Obviously that description doesn’t fit you.

    • 4everUKBlue
      2:33 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

      A waste of time is a good way to describe most of Lip Man’s comments and if you aren’t going to watch and don’t care then why the hell are you even commenting at all on this site?

  4. Axel72
    1:00 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

    Looks like we should be rooting for one loss, although I doubt it makes a difference, it’s just hard to imagine them winning 3 or 4 straight in 3 or 4 days. Although UCONN did it 2011, I believe they won 11 in a row to win their Conference tourney and the NCAA. Difference we don’t have Kamba Walker??? or anything close to it.

  5. 2Dogs
    1:26 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

    It’s sad we’re trying to come up with scenarios in order to avoid Alabama. And they’re a good team but certainly not a great team. That tells you all you need to know about how far UK has fallen this year.

    • Cokely53
      2:19 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

      Even when we’re the best team, we still try to “avoid” the next best. It’s how literally every tourney works. Would you rather play South Carolina, vandy, and Miss St or Alabama, Arkansas, and Florida? If you pick the later then you are delusional.

  6. jakew60
    2:41 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

    7 or 6 seed would be great for this team I think

  7. Mboro-kyfan
    4:05 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

    Does anyone know if T. Clark will be back for the tournament, it said out 4weeks at first of February and that will be almost 5-6 weeks by time tourney rolls around.

  8. Swizzle
    5:06 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

    Maybe we could sit out to prepare for the nit. And hope we dont draw a juggernaut like Robert Morris.

  9. runningunnin.454
    5:10 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

    Whew, those current standings are ugly; don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like that. Warn us before you post those again.

  10. frankgrahovac
    6:00 pm March 1, 2021 Permalink

    Well the way I see it sometimes we play and sometimes we don’t, if the team shows up that killed Florida and Tennessee then we have a chance, if the team shows up that played the second Florida game then we will be out quickly