FiveThirtyEight is keeping their statistical model updated throughout the tournament and they still like the Cats to bring home the national championship. As you can see in the chart above, Nate Silver and his team give the Cats an 87% chance to win this weekend and a 73% to reach the Final Four. The Cats remain a 41% favorite to win it all.
Arizona and Duke have made the biggest leap since the initial metric was released. Zona has leapt from a 9% chance, 4th overall, to second place and a 14% chance. Meanwhile the Blue Devils have moved from 6th place to third, up 6 percentage points.
The Power Rank has some updated percentages as well. The Cats are down .003 from their opening chances to 37.6% but still remain the heavy favorite. Power Rank really likes the Cats over the Mountaineers as they have UK winning 92.4% of the time.
Do you trust these statistical likelihoods? Or do you think passion, match-ups, and momentum play a bigger role in March that the numbers just can’t account for. Personally, I think it’s a good deal of both.