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KenPom, Sagarin predictions for the rest of the regular season

What will Kentucky’s record look like at the end of the season? Thankfully, we’ll know for certain a week from Saturday, but for fun, let’s check in with the latest KenPom and Sagarin predictions.

KenPom: 26-5, 15-3 in the SEC

KenPom has Kentucky losing by three in Knoxville, giving the Cats a 41 percent chance of knocking off the Vols.

Saturday, March 2 AWAY Kentucky 71 Tennessee 74 41%
Tuesday, March 5 AWAY Kentucky 73 Ole Miss 68 68%
Saturday, March 9 HOME Kentucky 68 Florida 58 80%

Even though KenPom predicts a Tennessee win over Kentucky, it also predicts the Volunteers will lose at Auburn to end the regular season, meaning they’ll also finish with a 15-3 conference record. Same goes for LSU, which KenPom believes will lose at Florida on Wednesday. That would leave another three-way tie at the top, with LSU, Kentucky, and Tennessee all sharing the SEC regular season title. Here are KenPom’s projected conference standings:

Team Overall Conference Projected Conference
Kentucky 24-4 13-2 15-3
Tennessee 25-3 13-2 15-3
LSU 23-5 13-2 15-3
Mississippi St. 21-7 9-6 10-8
Florida 17-11 9-6 11-7
Mississippi 19-9 9-6 10-8
South Carolina 14-14 9-6 10-8
Auburn 19-9 8-7 10-8
Alabama 17-11 8-7 9-9
Arkansas 14-14 5-10 7-11
Texas A&M 12-15 5-10 7-11
Missouri 12-15 3-12 4-14
Georgia 10-18 1-14 2-16
Vanderbilt 9-19 0-15 1-17

In this situation, LSU would be the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament and Kentucky would get the No. 2 seed over Tennessee thanks to secondary tiebreaker procedures.

Sagarin Predictor: 26-5, 15-3 in the SEC

Kentucky’s current Sagarin Predictor rating is 91.72, sixth best in the country. The home advantage is 3.15. Using those numbers and the ratings of Kentucky’s opponents, the Sagarin Predictor has the Cats losing in Knoxville and beating Ole Miss and Florida to finish the season:

Saturday, March 2 AWAY Kentucky 91.72 Tennessee 93.79
Tuesday, March 5 AWAY Kentucky 91.72 Ole Miss 86.40
Saturday, March 9 HOME Kentucky 94.87 Florida 85.93

Like KenPom, Sagarin Predictor has Tennessee losing to Auburn and LSU losing at Florida.

One stat I wish got more play is Sagarin’s “recent rating,” which weighs recent play more heavily than earlier games to track trends. Based on that metric, Kentucky’s the second best team in the country right now behind North Carolina. Here’s the top five:

1. North Carolina: 97.75
2. Kentucky: 95.48
3. Virginia: 95.34
4. Michigan State: 92.69
5. Gonzaga: 92.01

Tennessee is No. 10 and Duke No. 14, which shows you how vulnerable they are without Zion.

Your turn. Predict Kentucky’s regular season record below:


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Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

13 Comments for KenPom, Sagarin predictions for the rest of the regular season



  1. N-UR-i
    4:01 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    16-2. I think the Ole Miss game will be closer than the UT.



  2. ukcamel
    4:01 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    The Tennessee game will be close. They aren’t going to beat us like we beat them in Rupp, but we also aren’t going to repeat that beat down. I’d say we win 76-73. Then we beat Ole Miss and Florida by double-digits.



  3. KYjellyRoll
    4:20 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    Can’t wait until Saturday



  4. Mathlete
    4:25 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    KenPom also predicted Virginia would win the tournament last year and like a 95% chance of getting out of the first round. Take that for what it’s worth



  5. Aar
    4:35 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    Cats 16-2, LSU 16-2, UT 15-3.

    Cats will prevail in a very close, physical war on Rocky Top this Saturday and the top 3 SEC teams will win out after that.



  6. unbridled
    4:46 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    Cats by 8 against the Vols.



    • 4everUKblue
      4:56 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

      8 would be great, but I would settle for Cats by 1.



  7. PanamaIce
    5:00 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    Vols, Rebs on the road, more difficult than the Auburn-Mississippi State-KU stretch, ergo I predict 2 losses, then close out win Vs Gators.



  8. BBN3023
    7:36 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    Right before the previous game vs UT, I would’ve said vols blowout.
    But now, IM PICKING KENTUCKY.
    Win by 5 in OT.



  9. dieden39
    8:51 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    Have no idea how either team will play. Could be a close game, which I probably predict, but on the other hand either team could inflict a 15-18 point blowout. I will just wait and see. No I told you so, because I don’t know. Go Cats. Love my Cats since 1948 and the real all time FABULOS FIVE.



  10. krautdog
    9:01 pm February 28, 2019 Permalink

    Can anyone tell me what happened to TJ?



  11. BigolBlue
    5:31 am March 1, 2019 Permalink

    Majority thinks finish with 4 losses. Smh



    • KayutsBy90
      9:44 am March 1, 2019 Permalink

      That’s just a silly notion to me. Love this team and I have the up most confidence in the tournament but we will drop another. Hopefully in the sec tourney. We don’t need to win that if we win the next 3.