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KenPom, Sagarin Predictions for Kentucky’s next five games

Believe it or not, there are only ten games left in the regular season. Let’s look at the Cats’ next five opponents and what the KenPom and Sagarin Ratings say about the possible outcomes.

First, a rundown of Kentucky’s record, ranking, and position in the ratings:

  • Record: 16-5, 6-2 SEC
  • AP Poll: 15
  • Coaches Poll: 16
  • NET Ranking: 27
  • KenPom: 36
  • Sagarin Rating: 12

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Tuesday, Feb. 4, 9 p.m., Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN

  • Record: 14-7, 5-3 SEC
  • AP Poll: NR
  • Coaches Poll: NR
  • NET Ranking: 39
  • KenPom: 33
  • Sagarin Rating: 32

After losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, Mississippi State has won two straight, beating Florida 78-71 in Gainesville and Tennessee 86-73 in Knoxville. Sophomore forward Reggie Perry is averaging 17.2 points (4th in the SEC) and 10.0 rebounds (1st in the SEC) and scored 51 points over the last two games. Containing him will be a huge challenge for Nick Richards, who struggled against Auburn’s Austin Wiley.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -6

KenPom: Kentucky 72, Mississippi State 68 (62% chance of winning)

Tennessee Volunteers

Saturday, Feb. 8, 1 p.m., Thompson-Boling Arena (Knoxville, TN), CBS

  • Record: 12-9, 4-4 SEC
  • AP Poll: NR
  • Coaches Poll: NR
  • NET Ranking: 70
  • KenPom: 65
  • Sagarin Rating: 66

Tennessee has lost three straight: at Kansas, vs. Texas A&M, and at Mississippi State. Uruguayan guard Santiago Vescovi has been better in recent games, but the Vols just aren’t the same team without Lamonte Turner, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Regardless, Kentucky hasn’t won in Knoxville since 2015.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -0.5

KenPom: Tennessee 67, Kentucky 66 (50% chance of winning)

Vanderbilt Commodores

Tuesday, Feb. 11, 7 p.m., Memorial Gymnasium (Nashville, TN), ESPN

  • Record: 8-13, 0-8 SEC
  • AP Poll: NR
  • Coaches Poll: NR
  • NET Ranking: 169
  • KenPom: 191
  • Sagarin Rating: 178

Vanderbilt lost its 26th straight SEC game on Saturday to Florida, 61-55. They are not a good basketball team, but as we saw last week, that didn’t stop Kentucky from letting them hang around too long. Plus, Memorial Gym is weird.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -10.5

KenPom: Kentucky 76, Vanderbilt 68 (78% chance of winning)

Ole Miss Rebels

Saturday, Feb. 15, 2 p.m., Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY), ESPN/2/U

  • Record: 10-11, 1-7 SEC
  • AP Poll: NR
  • Coaches Poll: NR
  • NET Ranking: 111
  • KenPom: 124
  • Sagarin Rating: 96

The only SEC team Ole Miss has beaten so far is Georgia, but they took Auburn to two overtimes last week before losing by one. The Rebels have one of the best guards in the SEC in Breein Tyree, who averages 17.9 points per game, but the rest of the team struggles to score. Right now, they’re shooting 42.7% from the floor, which ranks 12th in the SEC.

Sagarin Predictor: Kentucky -12.5

KenPom: Kentucky 74, Ole Miss 63 (85% chance of winning)

LSU Tigers

Tuesday, Feb. 18, 9 p.m., Pete Mavarich Center (Baton Rouge, LA), ESPN/2/U

  • Record: 17-4, 8-0 SEC
  • AP Poll: 18
  • Coaches Poll: 18
  • NET Ranking: 22
  • KenPom: 32
  • Sagarin Rating: 14

LSU is undefeated in conference play, but their schedule is about to get a lot tougher. Three of the Tigers’ next four games are on the road, including Saturday’s game vs. Auburn. Kentucky’s game in Baton Rouge is shaping up to be the hardest left on the schedule, so I’ll be curious to see how LSU fares vs. the team that just beat the Cats.

Sagarin Predictor: LSU -2

KenPom: LSU 78, Kentucky 74 (36% chance of winning)

Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

7 Comments for KenPom, Sagarin Predictions for Kentucky’s next five games

  1. JT55
    5:08 pm February 3, 2020 Permalink

    Don’t overlook Miss St tomorrow. They’ve gotten much better. If UK comes out flat, they’ll lose.

  2. Righteous1
    5:22 pm February 3, 2020 Permalink

    UK stands a better chance if Cal gets ejected.

  3. dave1964
    5:36 pm February 3, 2020 Permalink

    It’s simple this is not a very good team. We have to many holes and the margin of error is very thin.

  4. dan1965
    5:38 pm February 3, 2020 Permalink

    When i looked at Kentucky’s remaining 11 games,before A ur burn, I thought 7-4 would probably be a good recored.
    We had Sunburn,Florida twice,UT twice,LSU, a fairly tough stretch,especially with tough games on road at Aurburn, which I counted as a loss,and sadly was.
    Then we travel to LSU,Florida,UT,, and even some tough home games Miss St….
    Anyway hope we do better than 7-4, but that was about what I was expecting.

  5. Righteous1
    8:48 pm February 3, 2020 Permalink

    I said double digit losses before the season began. UK is on pace for that. MSU tomorrow night will bully UK tomorrow night Auburn is their best loss to this point. I know the Cal Lovers Wolfpack may not want to hear this but their hero has not won in Knoxville since 2015. Rick Barnes is 5-3 in the last 8 vs UK! Interesting to see where the next win is? Maybe Ole Miss.

  6. CahillsCrossingNT
    7:51 am February 4, 2020 Permalink

    Looks about right. They probably won’t win in Knoxville and definitely not in Baton Rouge.

  7. b2h3slin
    11:52 am February 4, 2020 Permalink

    win out. head to nashville 26-5