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Going through four scenarios for Saturday

A golden oldie.

A golden oldie.

A golden oldie.

It’s been one of the stranger UK/UofL preview weeks around here because this game’s one of the hardest to predict in recent memory. Even with the murky waters, we can narrow it down to four scenarios, which I’ve broken down for you below:

1. UK wins in a blowout
Likelihood: 14%

In my opinion, this is the least likely scenario on Saturday. Even if Kentucky plays very well, I just don’t see them running away from the Cards.

2. UK wins in a close game
Likelihood: 38%

The fact that this game is going down in Rupp gives the Cats a slight advantage, and I have them winning by about five points. The crowd will be a huge factor, especially for a young and impressionable team like Kentucky. All of UK’s losses have happened outside Rupp this year–could it be the crowd that saves them against Louisville?

3. UofL wins in a close game
Likelihood: 32%

Of course, the Cards are athletic and experienced, which could be the deciding factor if Kentucky falls out of sync like they have so many times this season. Julius Randle shrank away from the competition in the first half against Michigan State, against Baylor, and in Chapel Hill. Will he do the same against Montrezl Harrell or will he follow in the footsteps of DeMarcus Cousins, Josh Harrellson, and Anthony Davis, UK greats who have stepped up against the Cards?

4. UofL wins in a blowout
Likelihood: 16%

The Cats are getting better, but they’re still very inconsistent. However, all of their losses have been close, and at home, it’s hard to envision a Cardinal blowout. Also, the basketball gods aren’t that cruel. Are they?

Which scenario do you see playing out on Saturday?

Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

19 Comments for Going through four scenarios for Saturday



  1. DB11
    6:05 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    I can agree with the numbers and it scares the shit out of me.



  2. Claude Van Smoot
    6:19 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    Make me a sandwich



  3. Adam
    6:21 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    According to the percentages, UK has a 52% chance of winning. Based on play so far, I don’t see how they could be the favorite. Hoping scenario #1 comes true but expecting either #2 or #3. I doubt #4 would happen. We will see in 48 hours.



  4. jeff j
    6:22 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    blowout no doubt, rhyme every time, poet and dont know it, like a roach on a post, too smooth to move. GO CATS ; 93 to 70



  5. Cayuts
    6:24 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    Cats by 90



  6. Jason
    6:24 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    I love my CATS, but Cards by 12. I just haven’t seen it from the new guys yet.



    • ^^^^^^^^^^Go home troll^^^^^^^^^^^
      6:50 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

      You love you’re Cards.



    • BigBlue92
      7:29 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

      ^ You love you are cards?



  7. STOOPS TROOPS
    6:36 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    Aint no way the Cats lose this one. I no what the odds says but this is not happenin. Cats 83 Tards 73. Love me some TT tho



  8. Tom
    6:48 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    Hard to believe we’re talking about the crowd having to save this team from a UL win. These guys have all the talent in the world. They just need to communicate and become a team. I’m still waiting for the the lightswitch to come on for them. A win over UL will help our resume come March. Hopefully a win over UL will also help us make a decent run through the SEC.

    Prediction – I’ll go with #2.

    Go CATS!



  9. bob
    6:54 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    Cards 78 Kitties 69



  10. Stu Katz
    6:57 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    I want a win, any win, even by one point. A blow out by the Cats would be great, especially for my heart. However, the Cats haven’t really gien me any confidence, so I will not be surprised if the Cats lose, but I would be really angry and disappointed.



  11. TrueCatFan
    7:02 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    I’ve watched both teams play this year multiple times and I don’t see anything stopping a UL win. Hate to say it but it’s the truth. KSR saying the crowd will pull us through is silly because we all agree that our crowd sucks. Regardless of the game, the blue hairs aren’t cheering. UK is not going to win this one but I think we can really make a splash this season if we bring it together.



    • Not true
      8:22 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

      Have you been to any games at Rupp? I’m a season tix holder. No, I don’t agree the crowd sucks, at least not for this type game. It may suck when we play Montevallo, or NKU, UNC Asheville, Cleveland St., etc. but it won’t suck at the UofL game. The crowd is always rockin for GOOD non conference or rivalry games — UofL, FL, UNC, etc



  12. Las Vegas says
    7:35 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    Cards by 17 and it’s not even that close.



  13. Ashland
    9:07 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    Good post with realistic percentages, but Option 3 is the most likely to me.
    And can we get a podcast update? Whats the delay in fixing the issue, and what is the estimated date of the correction of said issue?



  14. 90% of UL fans in Louisville live in the projects and leech off the government
    9:24 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

    UK 80

    Ghetto U 68

    Cal’s ownage of Marty Feldman continues.



    • Oneandwho
      11:06 pm December 26, 2013 Permalink

      Cayuts fans always show their true colors and never disappoint! Love it!



  15. specialetta
    7:39 am December 27, 2013 Permalink

    #11 TrueCatFan. Guess you were not at the Florida game last year at Rupp. The crowd was a HUGE difference in the game. We should not have won that game but did.