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FiveThirtyEight: UK has a 57% chance of reaching Final 4

With the top four seeds in the South Region all going down, Kentucky’s path to the Final Four suddenly looks wide open. Stats website FiveThirtyEight now gives Kentucky a 57 percent chance of advancing to San Antonio, the best of any team in the Sweet 16.

Per these projections, Kentucky has a 71 percent chance of beating (9) Kansas State to advance to the Elite Eight, and should they knock off the winner of (11) Loyola and (7) Nevada to go to the Final Four, a 30 percent chance of making the National Championship game. If you allow yourself to look this far ahead, they currently have Kentucky’s chances of winning the whole thing at 11 percent.

Villanova has the highest chance of winning it all, at 22 percent, followed by Duke at 18 percent and Kansas at 11 percent. The most likely Final Four? Kentucky, Gonzaga, Villanova and Duke.

Bring it on.



Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

10 Comments for FiveThirtyEight: UK has a 57 hance of reaching Final 4

  1. plumloopy
    11:39 am March 19, 2018 Permalink

    I’ve been obsessed with for a while and it’s a fun way to watch a game if you’re feeling nervous about a lead (although, no guarantees, of course). Even more crazy than that 57% is the Bleacher Report “odds to win” the championship. They have UK as the current favorite to win it all!

  2. kentuckybackupplayer
    11:45 am March 19, 2018 Permalink

    538 has been so wrong so far in this tournament. Just ask Virginia, Cincinnati, etc.

  3. ClutchCargo
    11:57 am March 19, 2018 Permalink

    Actually, 538 hasn’t been wrong unless they gave a team that won a 0% chance of winning, or a team that lost a 100% of winning.

  4. Booby Petrino
    12:25 pm March 19, 2018 Permalink

    How much of a chance does bigbluenationdude give us? He’s correct so often…

  5. GuthrieFlash
    12:32 pm March 19, 2018 Permalink

    Isn’t 57% basically a coin-toss?

    I did learn—from watching the tourney—that I’ve been pronouncing Nevada wrong for a very long time. I’m glad to get that corrected!

    Now, if we could just get all of the announcers to pronounce our coach’s last name correctly; it should sound like Cali-perry; it should NOT rhyme with calamari. And those guys get pronunciation sheets (at least for players’ names, I know).

    • plumloopy
      1:29 pm March 19, 2018 Permalink

      Better than a coin toss since it’s two coin tosses/two games. Also, it’s 71% to win against K State, and without knowing who wins the other match-up, a 78% chance that the FF representative is from our half of the bracket. Not bad.

  6. jaws2
    1:04 pm March 19, 2018 Permalink

    I don’t care about no stinkin’ percentages, I like our chances period!!!