With the top four seeds in the South Region all going down, Kentucky’s path to the Final Four suddenly looks wide open. Stats website FiveThirtyEight now gives Kentucky a 57 percent chance of advancing to San Antonio, the best of any team in the Sweet 16.
Per these projections, Kentucky has a 71 percent chance of beating (9) Kansas State to advance to the Elite Eight, and should they knock off the winner of (11) Loyola and (7) Nevada to go to the Final Four, a 30 percent chance of making the National Championship game. If you allow yourself to look this far ahead, they currently have Kentucky’s chances of winning the whole thing at 11 percent.
Villanova has the highest chance of winning it all, at 22 percent, followed by Duke at 18 percent and Kansas at 11 percent. The most likely Final Four? Kentucky, Gonzaga, Villanova and Duke.
Bring it on.