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FiveThirtyEight: Kentucky has a 40% chance of making the Final Four


FiveThirtyEight, a popular statistics website, liked Kentucky’s chances in the South Region before the games began, but they’re even higher on the Cats after the first two games. Neil Paine increased Kentucky’s odds of advancing to the Final Four by 22%, making them the favorite out of the South Region. The Cats now have a 40% of winning the South Region, followed by North Carolina at 34%, UCLA at 14%, and Butler at 12%.

That’s exciting enough, but he also gives Kentucky an 11% chance of winning the national championship, the third best of any team left in the field :

Screen Shot 2017-03-20 at 4.22.46 PM

Awesome. For more, click the links below.

[FiveThirtyEight, Bracket]

Article written by Mrs. Tyler Thompson

No, I will not make you a sandwich, but you can follow me on Twitter @MrsTylerKSR or email me.

8 Comments for FiveThirtyEight: Kentucky has a 40hance of making the Final Four

  1. humboldt24
    6:15 pm March 20, 2017 Permalink

    It seems like every computer model has the Cats favored by a number of points, yet Vegas has the Bruins as a 1 point favorite. After re-watching the highlights from the game earlier this year and watching both teams play this weekend, I think it’s going to be a heavyweight battle that either team could win, but I like the Cats chances. What are other people’s confidence levels?

  2. syrin23
    6:31 pm March 20, 2017 Permalink

    There are only two teams that worry me. The first is Kentucky and our ability to play terrible for long stretches of time and the anti-Cats bias of the refs and NCAA. The other is Kansas.

    I agree that our defense is light years ahead of where it was, but people aren’t talking about Bam enough. The guy used to get 5 points, 5 boards and 5 TO’s a game. The Bam of the past six weeks is completely different than anything UCLA, UNC or Kansas saw.

  3. hensley79
    6:32 pm March 20, 2017 Permalink

    Cats are going to win!!!

  4. maximumscott
    6:38 pm March 20, 2017 Permalink

    I feel better the more I think about current trends. UCLA is known for highpowered offense. Cincy held them to 79 pts and we are rated 7 spots higher on kenpom at 7. If we hold them around that scoring level our offense can produce enough to win.

    Consider last time we played we played hero ball. We shot poorly bc of shot selection. We are more efficient now amd everyone stays within their lane and plays within their strengths.

    Tell me who Brice Alford gonna guard?!?!? Fox? No way. Briscoe?!? No way. Monk? No way. We will have a huge advantage with whoever Alford is guarding. Id say he guards Briscoe and I look for Briscoe to take it to the rack.

    UCLA shoots well and has weapons, but we have just as much. We are exceptional are driving to the basket and getting easy baskets. Guess what? Bc of that we dont need to hit 3s all the time.

    At first I was already conceiving a loss, but Im starting to feel more confident. We are a different team than last time we played. We are a better version of UK right now a more complete version. UCLA still does the same stuff and hasnt improved all that much on Defense.

    We can win if Monk gets 12-14 pts now. Im saying though he is due to explode and if it happens to be Friday, then its game over bc we have the best Offense when he is on fire hands down and combine that with our stingy D as of late.

    But we could still lose. It will be a tough game but i believe they are mentally stronger than UCLA and built for any style of game at this point. UCLA isnt built for a deep run bc they rely heavily on 1 aspect.

  5. Cals Hoverboard
    6:52 pm March 20, 2017 Permalink

    The information above in the table says we have a 11% chance of advancing TO the championship game. Then the bracket under it says 11% chance of winning the national championship. Are we misreading the numbers here?

    • JoeMoney333
      7:59 pm March 20, 2017 Permalink

      The table doesn’t have a column for making it to the title game. The final column if for advancing to a Championship. They have a 22% chance of making the title game. Both are correct.

  6. Kyle
    9:14 pm March 20, 2017 Permalink

    538 said Hillary was going to win in a landslide too.

  7. CatesDuncan
    7:37 pm March 21, 2017 Permalink

    UCLA has no defense and we got both offense and defense