One of my favorite tools in March Madness is FiveThirtyEight.com’s game probabilities for the entire NCAA tournament. (One of my least favorite tools in March Madness is Rick Pitino.)
The popular statistics website has the win probabilities for every team and they are updated live during games throughout the tournament, and then presented all nice and neat on an interactive bracket. You should play around with it when you’re filling out your bracket(s) today at work.
In the case of Kentucky, FiveThirtyEight gives the Wildcats an eight percent chance of winning the whole thing. On the path to get there, there is a 97 percent chance the Cats beat Northern Kentucky; a 68 percent chance they beat Dayton or Wichita State to reach the Sweet 16; a 47 percent chance they’re playing in the Elite Eight; a 30 percent chance they go to Phoenix; a 17 percent chance they make the championship; and then the eight percent chance to raise the trophy.
Only Villanova, Gonzaga and Kansas have a better shot at winning it all, according to FiveThirtyEight’s projection.
See it all for yourself here.