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Cats’ New Bracketology Prediction

Bracket

After a good week for Kentucky, which saw them go undefeated against Texas A&M and Georgia, the Cats moved up to #11 in both major polls.  This is something of a surprise after CBSSports.com dropped them a spot due to big wins by other teams (see: Michigan).  But we’ll take #11 no contest, and hope that a strong showing this week will move us back into the top ten.

However, the folks at CBS might need to get their antennae looked at, because they’re wildly out of sync with the general consensus.  In their newest bracketology, well, just take a look for yourself:

Bracketology.jpg

 

A SIX seed?!  That would mean they expect Kentucky to finish around a spot just inside the Top 25.  It also puts Cincinnati and Oklahoma ahead of the Cats, in the same region.

You think that’s about accurate?  Or is a six-seed far too low based on the season that Kentucky has had so far?  For my money, we’re a #3-4 right now.  Where would you put us?

Article written by Corey Nichols

33 Comments for Cats’ New Bracketology Prediction



  1. Corey is off the mark!
    6:35 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    You continue to give these cats too much credit. I love the team, but we need to beat someone first! Once we beat Florida, talk #2 or #3… But until then, its hard to make an argument for any better…



  2. KevinM
    6:35 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    The Fab Five had to accept a 6 seed their first season, so if we are there now at 6, I expect us to climb with so much basketball left.
    I see a Final 4 very much in the offering.



    • ted from head
      7:26 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      offing >>> offering



  3. White Castle Sliders
    6:37 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    Six seed is about right for this team RIGHT NOW. UK is 2-2 vs the RPI top 100. If they beat LSU, sweep Ole Miss and split with Florida and avoid a bad loss against the awful SEC bottom feeders then they should be a 3 or 4 seed.



    • White Castle Sliders
      6:46 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      vs top 50 I mean 5-2 vs Top 100



    • raccoon
      7:20 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      Look at the teams that lost 6-7 games last year. Look at the teams that got each seed last year. Look at the teams that lost lost 6-7 games. Look at the 6-seeds: Arizona, UCLA and 7-seeds: Notre Dame and Illinois, from big conferences. The 2010-11 teams had a fairly unimpressive non-conference performance (beat Washington at neutral site and Notre Dame at home and UL on the road, but lost neutral site game to Washington and road game to UNC, so basically a wash with this year’s team), lost 6/8 SEC road games, won the SEC tourney and got screwed by the committee for a 4-seed with an overal record of 25-8.

      I’ll break it down:
      30-4 (win out): 1-seed
      5 losses: 2-seed
      6 losses: 3-4-seed
      7 losses: 4-5-seed
      8 losses: 6-7-seed
      9 losses: 8-10-seed
      10+ losses: 10-12-seed/play-in game/NIT



  4. Bradley
    6:37 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    A 6 seed is laughable. What’s equally laughable is your belief a poll has anything to do with the seed you get. Remember when polls had Gonzaga 7th in the country and they CORRECTLY got a 6 seed in the tourney? Polls and seeds have nothing to do with one another.



  5. Craig
    6:48 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    We’re a 3 right now and can play our way as high as a 2 or as low as a 5 or 6.



    • lonnieb
      7:04 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      Craig your on the right page…….i even think a one is obtainable. However i think they could only lose 1 more time. They will get a 2 though….teams that were “rolling” are now losing.left and right. Case and zone are ones….i think Kansas will take another one. The last is up for grabs…..msu is gonna lose again tomorrow and the badger are showing true colors. I don’t know who else deserves a 1……wichta state has only played 2 teams in top 100. I think sdst peaked to.early regardless of what ends up happening. The Kansas game was huge now they are done for year. At least we get to play Florida 2X. Need a split worse case scenario



    • Delk for 3
      7:54 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      If we win out — that means beating Florida twice and possibly three times based on a SEC Tournament Championship — we will earn a 1-seed. This team would be like 31-3. That is a 1 seed if I’ve ever seen one.



    • JVice
      8:24 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      Delk for 3 – It’ll be really, really hard for us to finish 31-3 since we have 4 losses already.



  6. wolfcreekbrian
    7:11 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    Who cares what seed we get. As long as we make the field. High seed, first round should be easy, after that, you better bring your best every game. If cats play like we know they can, they can beat anyone. Every other team will not want to play us.



    • Hal
      7:43 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      bc in last 25 years arizona (#4) is the only non 1-3 seed to win the tourney



    • Delk for 3
      7:49 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      So naive to write something like this. Seeding is extremely important. Math based on historical results backs up my claim.
      You have about a 52 percent chance of making the Sweet 16 as a 1 seed. You have about a 48 percent chance to reach the Sweet 16 as a 2 seed. The probability of advancing to the Sweet 16 goes down to 42 percent as a 3 seed, and 38 percent as a 4 seed. A 5 seed has a 30 percent chance, a 6 has a 25 percent chance, and a 7 seed has about a 17 percent chance. An 8 and 9 seed has about an 8 percent chance to make the second week.



    • Do whut?
      8:32 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      It’s impossible, however, to quantify whether the lower seeds lose out because of tougher competition each round or the fact that they are indeed simply not as good as higher seeds. More than likely it is a combination of the two but either way there are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics.



  7. Hal
    7:25 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    UK: 2-1 vs RPI top 50 (W–#29 uofl, #42 prov; L–#9 michst) 7-4 v top100
    OKLA: 2-3 vs RPI top 50 (W–#11 iowast, @#31 texas; L–#9 michst, #1ku, @#39 ksu) 4-4 v top100
    CINN: 3-2 vs RPI top 50 (W–#14 pitt, @#32 mem, #41 smu; L–@#26 nmu, #35 xu) 5-2 v top100

    only reason we have a winning record against top50 is b/c unc & bu fell out of top50. uofl is our best win. the resumes are close but they have better wins than us & we may have worst rpi loss right now.



    • raccoon
      7:48 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      UC is hard to compare because they have fewer losses but haven’t played anyone. Oklahoma has the same number of losses with a weaker schedule. They lost to La. Tech at home. The wins at Texas and vs. Iowa St. are pretty good. The losses at Michigan St. and vs. Kansas aren’t bad and at K-State isn’t terrible. But other than Iowa St. and at Texas they have wins over a Baylor team that is falling apart and a bunch of mediocre or bad teams. Mainly I don’t see how you can overlook that La. Tech loss at home when comparing them to the Cats who have no really bad losses.



    • raccoon
      7:52 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      I honestly think we’d have 2 losses if we played Oklahoma’s schedule. 2-2 or 3-1 vs. MSU, Kansas, Iowa St., and at Texas and wins for the rest, with possibly a loss at K-State or Baylor. Yes, I think if we played Baylor at Baylor on January 18 we’d beat them by 10 points.



    • Hal
      9:03 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      ark – rpi 75, la tech – rpi 74 as of today didnt overlook anything. arky plays well at home but their rpi isnt great



    • raccoon
      9:34 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      Without even getting into anything else, if we are going to be slaves to RPI, Kentucky is 12 and Oklahoma is 19.

      But if we aren’t going to be slaves to RPI, Arkansas only loss at home this year is in overtime to Florida. La. Tech has lost to Saint Mary’s and Southern Miss. A home loss to La. Tech is so much worse than a road loss to Arkansas.

      You cannot look at the two teams objectively and pick Oklahoma over Kentucky based on resume. Kentucky has played a harder schedule to the same record and doesn’t have any bad losses or blowout losses (neither does Oklahoma, other than the bad loss at home vs. La. Tech).

      Luckily we have more than 10 games left to sort this out and make it more clear.



  8. jimlowe7
    7:28 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    Joe Lunardi at ESPN has us as a #2 seed RIGHT NOW – isn’t he the “Bracketology” expert?



    • Bradley
      7:33 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      Yes. And he is rarely ever off more than one line. If he says we’re a 2 right now then we’re a 3 at worst.



    • Delk for 3
      7:52 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      Totally agree with you Bradley. I don’t know where Palm is getting this 6-seed junk. There is no way the committee would give the team ranked No. 10 in the RPI a 6-seed. A 4-seed is the absolute bottom for this team right now, IMO.



  9. Matt
    7:39 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    The selection committee. Is a joke I remember a few years ok they had buffalo New York as a host site for the west bracket that’s not west at all I also don’t understand how if u are the number 1 1 seed. ( best in the country when tourney starts yet almost always there’s at least 2 other 1 seeds that have easier paths shouldn’t being the best team going into the tournament ? I believe the selection committee may be on drugs



  10. jeffj
    7:44 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    seeds,polls and elections. i dont take a lot of stock in any of em. the powers that be (lots of em) can tweek it, fake it, favor it and politicize it at will. besides, its a bit early for it since there are 12-14 games for all to play still. lots of upsets and surging to come still.



  11. Winston36
    8:04 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    Delk, I agree on your point but the numbers are WAY more skewed than that. 69% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8, roughly 86% make the sweet 16. If it was 52%, every second round game for a #1 seed would be a pick ’em. They are usually double digit faves in those scenarios. Where seeding makes a huge difference is the second round, especially in a year like this where 12 teams have a legit shot to get hot and go all the way. The difference between a 2 and 6 is enormous…basically defines where the uphill climb is going to start.



  12. Voice of Reason
    8:10 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    1) Arizona, Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida
    2) Michigan State, San Diego State, Villanova, Kansas
    3) Michigan, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Iowa
    4) Wisconsin, Kentucky, Creighton, Louisville
    5) Minnesota, Cincinnati, Memphis, St. Louis
    6) Pittsburg, Massachusetts, Duke, Oklahoma
    7) Texas, UCONN, Virginia, Kansas State
    8) Baylor, Ohio State, Gonzaga, New Mexico
    9) UCLA, Xavier, Providence, VCU
    10) Colorado, California, Arkansas, North Carolina



  13. Greg
    10:06 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    The should be charge call at Arkansas sucks, without that we likely win, or hey blocking out on the miss would have been wise. More than anything else the Baylor and UNC losses sting. We really should have won both, but we’d be in much better shape right now had we just held on in one of the two.



    • raccoon
      10:23 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

      I really don’t see how any of those games will affect our final position. The important thing is to finish strong and if the Cats do that the worst they get is a 3-4 seed which is fine. And if we only lose 1-2 more games we will get a 2 or 3-seed. Sure, those games hurt our shot at a 1-seed, but if we lose 4-5 more games I’m going to be more worried about our team than our seed. If this team can’t dominate the SEC, we can’t win the tourney even with a 1-seed.



  14. Chris "Shorty" Sanders
    10:36 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    Lower seeds lose because of less talent. Look at the match-ups. I love it! I’ll t ake Michigan over Arizona in the west. Louisville over Wichita State in the South. Florida over Duke in the East (with Ohio State breaking down the Syracuse zone). And #BBN over Michigan State after the defeating Kansas in the best game of the whole tourney. Then the SUPER SIX taking down the nets in the end with a win over Michigan. (Alex Poythress locking down Nik Stauskas)!! #gobigblue



  15. jpg
    10:41 pm January 27, 2014 Permalink

    That Cats have the opportunities to climb. I am one that is glad Florida is UK’s rival in the SEC, because that helps UK when it comes to quality games (guaranteed 2 games) in a mediocre strength that is the SEC.



  16. Isaac in Louisville
    12:03 am January 28, 2014 Permalink

    Aaaand, this is the third time this has been posted on KSR.



  17. UKBlue1!
    10:00 am January 28, 2014 Permalink

    I think if we win out the Cats could be a #2 seed. I don’t think we will win out. 1-2 losses and we are looking at #3 or 4. 2-3 losses #5 or 6. Its just fact, the SEC is not good. UF, Ole Miss and UK are the only sure NCAA tourney teams. Good wins are against UL, Providence, UT, Belmont and Boise ST. The UNC, Baylor and Arkansas losses are all going to hurt win it comes to seeding.