This a whole other type of weakness
For us stat junkies, judging Louisville thus far has been kind of tough. Sure, they are ranked #1 in the KenPom poll, but a lot of that can be attributed to racking up gigantic point differentials against sub-100 opponents. The Cardinals have beaten just one team in the top-100 KenPom, a 69-38 victory over Southern Miss (and we complain about UK’s lack of wins..).
Most everybody already knows that this Louisville team, like many, specializes in turning teams over. Louisville leads the nation in both turning people over and in taking care of the ball. So what should you do in order to poke holes in the Louisville armor? Two things: 1) Hit the offensive glass, and 2) work for shots inside the arc.
So far this year, even against subpar opponents, Louisville has really struggled to rebound defensively. They rank 142nd in the country in defensive rebound percentage (69%), and have put up some real stinkers on the defensive glass this season. In Louisville’s most recent game against Florida International, the Cards allowed FIU to grab over 43% of their misses. If there is one area in today’s tilt that dramatically favors the Cats, it’s in this area because no team in the country is better at reeling in offensive boards than UK.
Another thing that jumps out at you about this Louisville club is their lack of height. Logically, when you go against a team that lacks height, you try to work it inside. Although statistically the Cards have been pretty good at defending two-pointers this season, in Louisville’s only game against a team with a plethora of good big men (UNC) they allowed the Tar Heels to shoot 29-53 in a dominating performance. If the Cards can’t guard Brice Johnson, JMM, Joel James, and Kennedy Meeks, then how can they expect to take on the front of Julius Randle, WCS and Dakari Johnson? This is another area where the Cats should have a big advantage.
These two weaknesses, coupled with short guards and the home court, are why I fully expect the Cats to win today (82-77). What’s your prediction Cats fans?