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What can we take from Joe Lunardi’s latest updates?

Joe Lunardi is the bracketology equivalent of UK-obsessed fans who camp out for days in the cold for Midnight Madness (I still refuse to believe it has changed to Big Blue Madness) tickets. He eats, sleeps and breathes bracketology. In his latest set of predictions, Lunardi has Kentucky squeezing in the tournament with a little room to spare as a 10-seed. After yesterday’s assortment of games, surprises and upsets, Lunardi made a few quick updates to his “Last 4 in”, “First 4 out” and “Teams Moving In/Out.”

As of 11 p.m. last night, here’s how Lunardi sees things shaking out:

Last 4 in: Temple, Boise State, Wyoming, Villanova

First 4 out: Arizona State, Maryland, St. Mary’s, Iowa

Moving IN: Iowa State, La Salle

Moving OUT: Maryland, St. Mary’s

 

Although Kentucky has been teetering dangerously close to “the bubble,” the teams listed above are in fact the current teams making up “the bubble.” We know what Kentucky has done this season (13-6 overall, 4-2 SEC, RPI: 65, Pomeroy:23). We know the resume’. We know the wins. We know the losses. We know the potential. We know the reality. Let’s take a look at what the current “bubble teams” have done…

*Wins over ranked opponents indicate the ranking of the opponent AT THE TIME of the win, not the current ranking

1. Temple

Atlantic 10  13-6 overall (2-3 conference)  RPI: 57

Good wins: Villanova (very early), #3 Syracuse,

The losses: 90-67 to #2 Duke, 72-62 to Canisius, 69-62 to #6 Kansas, 57-52 to Xavier, 81-78 to St. Bonaventure, 83-71 to #9 Butler

Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to St. Bonaventure and Butler

Chances for good wins remaining: vs. #19 VCU

 

2. Boise State

Mountain West  14-5 overall (2-3 conference)   RPI: 58

Good wins: #11 Creighton

The losses: 74-70 to #15 Michigan State, 76-55 to Utah, 79-74 to #19 New Mexico (OT), 91-80 to Air Force, 75-59 to Nevada

Last 4 games: 1-3 with losses to New Mexico, Air Force and Nevada

Chances for good wins remaining: @ #15 New Mexico, @UNLV

 

3. Wyoming

Mountain West   15-4 overall (2-4 conference)   RPI: 54

Good wins: #19 Colorado, #15 San Diego State

The losses: 63-61 to Boise State, 49-36 to Fresno State, 62-50 to UNLV, 57-48 to Air Force

Last 4 games: 1-3 with losses to Fresno State, UNLV and Air Force

Chances for good wins remaining: #15 New Mexico, UNLV

 

4. Villanova

Big East  13-7 overall (4-3 conference)    RPI: 52

Good wins: #5 Louisville, #3 Syracuse

The losses: 77-55 to Alabama, 75-57 to Columbia, 77-74 to La Salle (OT), 76-61 to Temple, 72-61 to Syracuse, 58-43 to Pittsburgh, 69-66 to Providence

Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to Pittsburgh and Providence

Chances for good wins remaining: @ #24 Notre Dame, @ #21 Cincinnati

 

5. Arizona State

Pac-12   16-4 overall (5-2 conference)    RPI: 53

Good wins: UCLA

The losses: 87-73 to #14 Creighton, 78-61 to DePaul, 68-65 to Oregon, 71-54 to #7 Arizona

Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to Oregon and Arizona

Chances for good wins remaining: @ UCLA, @ #6 Arizona

 

6. Maryland

ACC   15-5 overall (3-4 conference)    RPI: 60

Good wins: NC State

The losses: 72-69 to #3 Kentucky, 65-62 to Florida State, 54-47 to Miami (FL), 62-52 to North Carolina, 84-64 to #1 Duke

Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to North Carolina and Duke

Chances for good wins remaining: #1 Duke

 

7. St. Mary’s

West Coast  17-4 overall (6-1 conference)   RPI: 59

Good wins:

The losses: 76-66 to Pacific, 65-56 to Georgia Tech, 82-75 to Northern Iowa, 83-78 to #9 Gonzaga

Last 4 games: 4-0 with wins over BYU, Portland, San Diego and Pepperdine

Chances for good wins remaining: #10 Gonzaga

 

8. Iowa

Big Ten 13-6 overall (2-4 conference)    RPI: 74

Good wins: Wisconsin

The losses: 75-63 to Wichita State, 95-79 to Virginia Tech, 69-65 to #5 Indiana, 95-67 to #2 Michigan, 62-59 to #22 Michigan State, 72-63 to #14 Ohio State

Last 4 games: 2-2 with losses to Michigan State and Ohio State

Chances for good wins remaining: @ #12 Minnesota, @ #7 Indiana

 

9. Iowa State

Big 12   14-5 overall (4-2 conference)    RPI: 39

Good wins: #11 Kansas State

The losses: 78-70 to #22 Cincinnati, 82-70 to #18 UNLV, 80-71 to Iowa, 97-89 (OT) to #6 Kansas, 56-51 to Texas Tech

Last 4 games: 3-1 with a loss Texas Tech, wins over West Virginia, TCU and #11 Kansas State

Chances for good wins remaining: @ #11 Kansas State, #3 Kansas,

 

10. La Salle

Atlantic 10  14-5 overall (4-2 conference)   RPI: 26

Good wins: Villanova, #9 Butler, #19 VCU

The losses: 81-74 to Central Connecticut State, 74-66 to Bucknell, 76-59 to Miami (FL), 74-65 to Charlotte, 70-63 to Xavier

Chances for good wins remaining:

 

When looking at the 10 teams listed above who make up the current “bubble,” the biggest thing I keep thinking is:  How is the NCAA going to find 68 teams to put in the tournament? Kentucky still has way too many games left to feel safe about inclusion or worried about exclusion. But for those who are worried about Kentucky being a tournament team or not TODAY… looking at the 10 teams who are currently on the bubble, could you find 68 teams with better resumes than Kentucky’s? Ohhh, this year in college basketball…

Article written by Ally Tucker

I once successfully requested "The Wobble" to be played 6 times at one wedding.

18 Comments for What can we take from Joe Lunardi’s latest updates?



  1. UK Freshmen
    2:10 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Kentucky has zero good wins and their RPI is worse than all except Iowa. Next question?



  2. UK Freshmen
    2:14 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Can someone please serve me a glass of Rick’s man juice?



  3. Roland
    2:20 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Selection Sunday. Mark your calendars.
    Sunday, March 17
    NCAA Selection Sunday 2013.
    Never mind. You will be constantly reminded soon on this site.



  4. Roland
    2:24 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Here some other important dates:

    dates and locations for the 2013 NCAA men’s basketball tournament:

    – Selection Sunday
    March 17, 2013

    – First Round
    March 19-20
    UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)

    – Second-Third Rounds
    March 21, 23
    The Palace of Auburn Hills (Auburn Hills, Mich.)
    Rupp Arena (Lexington, Ky.)
    EnergySolutions Arena (Salt Lake City, Utah)
    HP Pavilion (San Jose, Calif.)

    March 22, 24
    Frank Erwin Center (Austin, Texas)
    UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
    Sprint Center (Kansas City, Mo.)
    Wells Fargo Center (Philadelphia)

    – East Regional
    March 28, 30
    Verizon Center (Washington, D.C.)

    – West Regional
    March 28, 30
    Staples Center (Los Angeles)

    – Midwest Regional
    March 29, 31
    Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)

    – South Regional
    March 29, 31
    Cowboys Stadium (Arlington, Texas)

    – National Semifinals
    April 6
    Georgia Dome (Atlanta)

    – Championship Game
    April 8
    Georgia Dome (Atlanta)



  5. Catlanta
    2:38 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    We will go 0-2 this week and be on the outside looking in. LSU is a joke and we were life and death in that game. I think their rpi is around 150. That so called win should actually hurt us.



  6. My next question?
    2:39 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    And my next question is for you, Uk Freshmen: What did you learn in church services today? I’ll hang up and listen.



  7. cracka
    2:42 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    hearing that rondo tore his acl … anybody else hear that?



  8. IntensityN10
    2:44 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Rondo did tear his ACL, out indef
    dammit.



  9. 9in2014
    2:49 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Even though Rondo hangs out with uofl players and wears uofl gear, I feel bad that he was injured. Hope he gets well soon.



  10. mudcreekmark
    3:26 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    I think the only way we get in is to beat Ole Miss, Mizz, and beat Florida at home and then run the table against the rest of these bums. Worse Sec teams in the history of the SEC.



  11. Sy Sperling
    5:33 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Nice wig.



  12. Cat Fan in Georgia
    5:46 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Ally – There may not be 68 teams with better resumes than Kentucky, but you’re not competing for one of 68 spots. Last year there were 22 automatic qualifiers, some with RPIs of 100+. So unless Cats win the SEC tournament, they are competing for 45 or so spots, not 68.



  13. goukats
    6:21 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Can’t believe how people get so involved with Lunardis’ projections.He’s never close to being right.



  14. Dude
    6:28 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    It’s January dude…these tournament bracketologys mean nothing and change everyday. Who cares.



  15. Sy Sperling
    7:49 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Tenor…..no way in hurl.
    CATS suck so bad, they will decide to reject the NIT bid.



  16. SSDD
    7:52 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Niner, prove your napoleonic allegation.



  17. SSDD
    7:54 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    Won…..one….has a valid point.

    Second, Psalm 19:15……Stay calm.

    Nehemiah 8:2-4….etc



  18. UK Freshmen Is a Jealous Hater
    8:52 pm January 27, 2013 Permalink

    TheTard fan post at #1 here has to be the most envious person ever. He is often the first poster on a UK site. He must constantly refresh KSR. The Tards only have 1 decent win and that’s against a lowly SEC team, Missouri. So only 1 more “good” win than UK. So impressive!