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Updating the Bubble


Who wants to see Oz with me this weekend?


Last night, Tyler highlighted the Wednesday Night Bubble Watch in our ever-vigilant tracking of Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament chances. Here’s an update of how each bubble team fared and whether they second-handedly helped or hurt Kentucky’s odds:


Villanova 67, #5 Georgetown 57

Yesterday, Villanova (RPI 55, SOS 29) was one of Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four In,” and chances are that this morning, the Wildcats from Philadelphia will be squarely in the dance. It was their third win of the season over a top five team, and Nova now sits at 19-12 (10-8 Big East) with other quality wins against the top Big East teams of Louisville, Syracuse, and Marquette. Compared to other bubble teams, Nova’s losses to Columbia, Seton Hall, and Providence (as well as a rough time on the road) look a little more forgivable, and most analysts this morning will have their ticket written in (if not Sharpie) erasable pen (remember those? Absurd).


I don’t know about you all, but I’d trade laughing at a Louisville loss in a second for a fellow bubble team to lose. Hindsight is 20-20, I guess. Result for UK? Bad.


Iowa State 87, #13 Oklahoma State 76

As another “Last Four In,” UK fans were hoping for Iowa State to crumble against the recent momentum of Oklahoma State. Unfortunately, that was not the case. With this win, the Cyclones have three wins over teams in the Top 30 of the RPI (Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma) to pair with six total wins over teams in the top hundred. Again, their quality wins read better than UK’s, despite only having one road win against a team in the top two hundred. They shouldn’t buy their tap shoes just yet, but the Cyclones are leaning in. Result for UK? Bad.


North Carolina 79, Maryland 68

This was a tough call for UK fans, as far as who to root for. Although the Cats beat Maryland way back when in the Barclays Center (man, that was a fun game, guys), their bubble position had us crossing our fingers for a UNC win- and the basketball gods delivered. Although UNC is by no means as strong of a team as we’re used to, they took care of business last night and, barring a strong ACC tournament run, the Terps are out of NCAA Tournament contention and left to wallow in non-conference losses and losses in four of their last seven games. Result for UK? Good.


Temple 74, Fordham 55

The third of the “Last Four In”s to play last night, Temple was pretty heavily favored over Fordham, and by avoiding a bad loss, the Rams inadvertently weakened UK’s tournament chances. A bad loss this late in the season would have completely cut them out of the conversation, but unfortunately the win keeps them in it- although a loss at VCU Saturday could help the Wildcats. Result for UK? Bad.


Tennessee 82, Auburn 75

Another case of “avoiding a bad loss” to make the tournament, but the Vols beat Auburn to keep their NCAA hopes alive. As a final Lunardi “Last Four In,” the guys in orange are winning (seven out of their last eight, including victories over UK and UF) and earned a road win last night. They next face Mizzou on Saturday and I’m already here to tell you, go Tigers. Result for UK? Bad. 


Bottom line? After a good day of other bubble teams’ results on Tuesday, Wednesday was a little less beneficial to the Cats, with four out of five precariously perched teams winning last night. Our fate is in our hands. Beat Georgia. Don’t embarrass ourselves against Florida. Win two in the SEC Tournament. We got this, guys.



Article written by Kristen Geil

17 Comments for Updating the Bubble

  1. SCCat
    11:09 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    Win tonight and win Saturday. We won’t be totally out of the woods, but at least we won’t have to sweat 8 games a day to see how we stack up.

    Starts tonight! i know a couple rabid CAYTS fans headed to Athens for a wild drunk and a victory as we speak. Go Blue.

  2. TN Cat
    11:14 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    Even if we are projected as First Four In, that doesn’t factor in upsets in the conference tourneys.

  3. goukats
    11:19 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    Lanardi knows about as much about seeding as i do(which is’nt much) and i can’t understand why writers on this blog put so much stock in his claim.The Cats are currently in second place in the SEC,and should finish in the top 4,and yet we are constantly reminded by these perpetual worrywart bloggers on KSR that they are on the bubble and out .Really!!!!

    11:20 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    I’ll see Oz with you!! <3

  5. UK Homer
    11:24 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    UGA would be our first 100+ RPI loss of year. I know that’s not a huge accomplishment, but we gotta be able to hang our hats on something. Beat them tonight! There are resume boosting games out there in UF @ home, then the SEC tourney which has at least two more top 50 games potentially in UF, Mizzou, and maybe even someone like Ole Miss, UT, or Bama to help the 51-100 record. Every little bit helps! Lets go Cats! There is still a lot of hope!

  6. J
    11:30 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    Weren’t we ranked #3 preseason lol! Now were begging to get in tr tournament! Bet we don’t do an all access show again! Still headed to Athens to the game tonight, it’s a must win!

  7. Perhaps Not
    11:33 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    Is it possible that Lunardi does know more than many of us? Didn’t he guess 67 of the 68 teams in last year’s tourney? Maybe not the seeding, but the actual entrants?

  8. Chicago Chris
    11:42 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    So now we have to win two in the SEC tourny?

  9. Chicago Chris
    11:43 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    I think the TEAM needs to approach the FL game as do or die. They could make it if they lose, but they WILL make it if they win. Enough is enough.

  10. B
    11:47 am March 7, 2013 Permalink

    2 senarios, win the SEC Tourney or We HAVE to beat Georgia, Florida & win a couple games in SEC tourney.

  11. kadizkat
    12:00 pm March 7, 2013 Permalink

    #3 You may not like it and I don’t like it but as #7 points out, Lunardi has been getting this right for a long time. He is the one to watch as a barometer.

  12. lonnieb
    12:09 pm March 7, 2013 Permalink

    Win tonight play UF tight… 1 SEC game…..we are in….period. Fortunately they factor in other variables such as fan base, ticket sales, revenue, and tv interest. There is no other team the country would rather see lose more than UK. ITs only positives in everyway possible for college basketball to have them in. Uconn was like 8-11 conference and 16-12 or something not too long ago and got in….same with UNC

  13. lonnieb
    12:10 pm March 7, 2013 Permalink

    DOes anyone on this board really think that Lasalle or Boise would actually get in over uk

  14. ajh
    12:20 pm March 7, 2013 Permalink

    #3 you are clueless

  15. ajh
    12:23 pm March 7, 2013 Permalink

    #13. I’ve watched Boise play a couple times recently and they look better than UK, and as of right now Boise still has a slight better resume than UK, so yes, i think Boise woould get in over UK as of right NOW

  16. But
    12:34 pm March 7, 2013 Permalink

    13…..UConn won the conference tournament that year.

  17. We lose in NCAA anyway
    3:58 pm March 7, 2013 Permalink

    We are not going to go past 2nd round NCAA tourney at best anyway…why not lose now and end the season quickly is what are guys are thinking…lol…Next year can’t get here any faster…