With the SEC Tournament set to tip off tomorrow evening, excitement is beginning to build around the Bluegrass for another potential championship run. However, Kentucky fans, like fans of every other SEC team, have no idea what to expect going forward given the unpredictable nature of the 2012-13 season. While your guess as to who takes home the pyramid shaped trophy is as good as mine, the good folks at TeamRankings.com threw their hat into the prediction ring with their mathematical probabilities. The method they used is called the “Log5” method, which takes a team’s Pythagorean Win Percentage and matches that up with other competitors in their bracket. After some basic math, you get a percentage chance of advancing to a specific round (or winning the tournament). This methodology, while sounding like made up math, consistently outperforms seeding predictions every season.
According to their calculations, Kentucky has the second best chance of winning the SEC Tournament at 12.6%. Even though Billy Donovan’s Gators have sputtered recently, they’re the tournament favorites with a 69% of winning. Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Alabama round out the top six. If you’re interested in seeing probabilities for the remainder of the SEC, or other conference tournaments, they can be found here.
Also, I apologize for going so heavy on the math this week, guys. To show you I’m not a guy who’s totally enamored with the numbers behind the game (even though, let’s face it, I am), here’s a gif of Mitch McGary “colliding” with Cody Zeller. Frankly, I’m surprised Cody Zeller is still alive after being hit harder than Russia by that stray meteor. I mean seriously, McGary hit Zeller with more force than Ray Lewis hitting an NFL Quarterback. People felt bad for Brandon Knight this week, and rightfully so, but we truly need to keep Cody Zeller in our thoughts after this devastating blow.
(In case you couldn’t tell, the above paragraph was drenched in sarcasm.)