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History likes Kentucky’s chances

I like the way this looks

The Commonwealth is crackling with excitement; old men are having shoving matches, and UK students are disgruntled that classes will continue as planned, as the Cats march towards the Championship.

To explain just how likely that scenario is, my man Jimmy Smith, a writer at Bleed Blue Kentucky, passed some stats on to me, and I think you’re going to like what it says. Here’s the short version:

Since 1999, when a team has won its first four games of the NCAA tournament by an average of double-digits, and won its Elite Eight game by double-digits, and plays a lower-seeded team in the Final Four, they are undefeated (6-0). Those teams are ’09 North Carolina, ’07 Ohio State, ’06 Florida, ’01 Duke, ’00 Michigan State and ’00 Florida.

Kentucky can be added to that list with a win on Saturday, as the numbers are clearly in the Cats favor.

Furthermore, of the 92 teams that have played in the Final Four since 1989, 36 meet these qualifications. And only nine have failed to reach the Championship game – two of those teams were in 2009 when all four 1-seeds made the Final Four.

Not only do the numbers support the margin of victory stat for predicting March winners, but 22 years of data says Kentucky has roughly a 75% chance of beating Louisville, and that’s not even counting the drastic talent gap between the two teams.

This season’s Kentucky squad and VCU are the only two teams which have met these qualifications of double-digits wins over the last three years, and since 2006, the four years prior, we saw two National Champions and two runner-up’s with the teams meeting these qualifications.

Over the last 16 years, at least one team which met these qualifications was represented in the Championship game, except last year’s VCU. This year Kentucky is the only team that qualifies.

So even if this isn’t the title year, God forbid — the numbers are saying Kentucky still doesn’t lose on Saturday.

Article written by Stuart Hammer

B.S. Broadcast Journalism from the University of Kentucky. @StuartHammerKSR

26 Comments for History likes Kentucky’s chances



  1. History
    11:20 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    I like Kentucky

    http://youtu.be/d46vm9Los2Y



  2. Wu Tang Financial
    11:22 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    I like History



  3. 8pril on th rise
    11:28 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    I advise U of L fans to purchase Karen Sypher’s new book, they will have plenty of time to read it after Saturday.



  4. Richard
    11:31 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Sports Dump Final Four preview: http://thesportsdump.com/2012/03/30/2012-final-four-preview/ Go Cats!



  5. bigbluebear
    11:31 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Wasn’t this posted yesterday too?



  6. sangaman
    11:36 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Saying Kentucky has a roughly 75% chance of winning because of their record in the last 22 years vs UL makes no sense. We have a better than 75% chance of winning, but it has virtually nothing to do with our record vs UL in past games.



  7. Jatt Mones
    11:42 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Matt Jones is really an implant Dook fan.



  8. Joe
    11:42 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Anthony Davis just won the AP player of the year. Great for him, I hope he catapults us to #8…just 2 games away. BRING IT!



  9. Matthew
    11:46 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Joe, you need a job at KSR. I was wondering if they were ever gonna post it. Wake up, guys! First UK player to do so. GO CATS! #8!



  10. East Kentucky Infidel
    11:50 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    I miss Hoo Hoo Hoosier, the day is not the same without his hilarity.



  11. Hoo Hoo Hoosier
    11:53 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Go Cats!



  12. BobKYCats
    11:56 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    History and Vegas agree!



  13. snoopaloop
    11:57 am March 30, 2012 Permalink

    7. advanced statistics say UK has a 75% chance of winning. Check Accuscore and Kenpom



  14. Joe
    12:00 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Matthew – Maybe I just need a life. I’m wondering when a new post will be coming? I’m sure they are busy with media stuff in NOLA.



  15. Chicago Chris
    12:05 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Trivia question: the 1998 team had HOW MANY NBA 1st round draft picks?

    More than you’d think: Four

    Scott Padgett, #28, 1999
    Nazr Mohammed, #29, 1998
    Jamaal Magloire, #19, 2000

    And the Highest draft pick to play on the 2008 champs?

    Michael Bradley, #17, 2001



  16. Derp
    12:17 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    The Bluegrass showdown is going to divide a lot of husbands/wives and brothers/sisters, which is pretty much the same thing in Kentucky.



  17. Derp
    12:20 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    I’m my own grandpa.



  18. Wasteful Showboat
    12:22 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Thanks for this great article. ‘My kind of stuff.



  19. Level 9 Pissed
    12:23 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    “…36 meet these qualifications. And only nine have failed to reach the Championship game — two of those teams were in 2009 when all four 1-seeds made the Final Four.”

    If they were all #1 seeds, how do they meet the “qualifications” of “…plays a lower-seeded team in the Final Four…”? We they looking at the overall seedings to discern the “lower-seeded team”?

    You better git ya facts straight!



  20. Derp
    12:42 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    I’m sitting at home laughing at my funny joke. I’m probably the first person to make a Kentucky inbreeding joke.



  21. Chicago Chris
    12:43 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    75% isn’t enough for me! Wait, I’ll flip a coin twice… Tails, Heads. We win!



  22. bluetooth
    4:07 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    odd set of stats … hopin they are right



  23. bigblue
    5:57 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Something you are missing with that 6-0 mark. That you purposely omitted I researched those teams they won their conference tourneys!



  24. That One Guy
    9:00 pm March 30, 2012 Permalink

    Did Mich State and Fla both win the title in ’00?



  25. Random Vanderbilt Fan
    4:23 pm March 31, 2012 Permalink

    Last time Vanderbilt defeated UK in the SEC Championship was 1951. If you recall, UK won the national championship that year. Just throwing that out there. Thank us.